A big reason why the public is like bees to honey for the Yankees is that the Guardians have been one of the game’s weakest contact-hitting teams this season, as opposed to a Yankees club that led the MLB in everything from the expected slug percentage to the barrel price on Statcast.

We saw this disparity in Game 2 on Tuesday.

Cleveland failed to create scoring momentum despite loading the bases in the fourth and fifth innings.

But perhaps their chance could have been used differently had it not been for the two fielding errors that cost the Guardians points.

That was an unusual breakdown in Cleveland’s play; it finished fourth overall in Fielding Run Value in runs above average according to FanGraphs.

Yankees vs. Guardians ALCS Game 3 odds

The Guardians start with Matthew Boyd, whose late-season participation was relatively seamless after recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Boyd was perfect in the limited action he had in his two division series, striking out five each and allowing 0 earned runs in 6²/₃ innings.

From a technical perspective, we have to appreciate the execution of Boyd’s pitch mix since his return: his velocity is higher on four of his five pitches, while his slider and curveball are putting hitters away faster than they were in 2023.

He is especially effective against left-handed hitters, limiting them to a .143 average.

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While key Yankees lefty hitters like Juan Soto are taking on this challenge, Clarke Schmidt will start before the pinstripes with more than a week of rest.

Schmidt, on the other hand, has struggled with hitting left-handed, giving them a .238/.326/.363 slash line – spelling problems for a lineup with eight guys who can hit left-handed on Tuesday.

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The Guardians have not yet led this series, although they can trail the Yankees through a relief staff that has posted an MLB-best ERA of 2.57 in the regular season.

If additional base hits can be mitigated, expect Cleveland to solidify and consider the value books still have something to offer with a tough road win for the Yankees.

THE GAME: Guardians (+100, Caesars Sportsbook)

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Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He focuses primarily on choices that reflect market value while following trends to limit risks.