The group stage will culminate on Day 6 of the 2024 ATP Finals. All four players from the John Newcombe Group will have a chance that will make this an enchanting day of tennis. As always, at LWOT we preview and predict both clashes scheduled for Day 6.

ATP Finals Day 6 Predictions

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Alexander Zverev

Head-to-head – Alcaraz 5-5 Zverev

What a fantastic match this could be. Their head-to-head score is 5-5 and someone will take the lead this time. The equation for Alexander Zverev is simple: win and qualify. There is only one scenario in which the German is vulnerable, when both Zverev and Rublev are defeated in straight sets. But the way Zverev is playing, don’t expect him to give up in straight sets.

Carlos Alcaraz returned to victory after dropping the opener, but the Spaniard looks a few steps away from his best. He would have to be at his best to beat Zverev, who is in red-hot form. The most important thing for Alcaraz would be to serve well, but on these courts his serve was a bit lacking as both Ruud and Rublev made big ones.

Expect a chaotic battle as Alcaraz is expected to fight to the end, but the German has looked so confident all week that he doesn’t seem likely to drop this match.
Prediction: Zverev in 3

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Andrei Rublev vs. Casper Ruud

Head-to-head – Rublev 5-2 Ruud

This is a pretty interesting head-to-head record. Andrey Rublev may have a 5-2 lead over Casper Ruud, but Ruud has won both times they have played in the ATP Finals here in Turin. Both players can still make it mathematically, but one has a significantly better chance than the other.

There is no sure scenario in which Rublev can qualify as he needs Alexander Zverev to win in straight sets and then beat Ruud in straight sets. Even then, he would have to rely on match winning percentage to qualify. The great thing is that these two play second, so Rublev knows exactly what to do if he can qualify. Ruud, on the other hand, can qualify if he wins and the other group match goes into the third set. There are other scenarios where even if Ruud loses he can qualify, but the Norwegian would like a win to close out his group stage.

Expect a tight battle here as both players love to attack from the forehand, but Ruud’s serve has looked better this week and that could prove to be the difference. Ruud would have to win this in three sets, which would bring many mathematical combinations into play.
Predictions: Ruud in 3

Main photo credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports