Thursday’s NBA action features several teams on the second night of a back-to-back (Memphis, San Antonio and the Los Angeles Clippers), meaning there’s only one game – Dallas vs. Houston – where we have a full injury report for whoever will play tonight.

I only want to place one bet on Thursday as there is a lot of uncertainty across the board when it comes to injuries.

Both Desmond Bane and Marcus Smart were injured in Wednesday’s Grizzlies loss to the Brooklyn Nets, and some other games have key players like Lauri Markkanen and Bradley Beal listed as questionable, which could really impact the outcome of those games.

As always, there is a chance to make a bet after I publish this column, but there is one bet I like between Houston and Dallas. So let’s break it down.

Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (including futures). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Jalen Green OVER 23.5 points (-120) — 0.5 units

Houston Rockets guard Jalen Green is off to a fast start in the 2024-2025 season, averaging 28.8 points per game while shooting 43.2 percent from the field and 41.3 percent from beyond the arc.

Houston’s decision to pay Green this season seems like a good move at this point, as he has scored at least 22 points in all four of the Rockets’ games, leading the charge against the Spurs (36 points) in their last-time out took over.

Green’s usage percentage is at 31.4 this season – a career high – and he has taken at least 21 shots in every game this season. Additionally, Green is getting to the line, averaging six free throw attempts per game.

I think this is a favorable matchup for him after Dallas allowed 24 first-quarter points – 37 total – to Anthony Edwards on Tuesday night. Using Green is key as he has shot well enough where taking more than 20 shots should get him over this line.

He’s put up 23.5 points in three of his four games, and I expect this game to be relatively close — Houston is a 6.5-point underdog — which should help keep Green from falling into garbage time.

With the Mavericks moving on from Derrick Jones Jr. this offseason, they don’t have an elite guard defender in their starting lineup. Green may get an assignment from PJ Washington, but he could also start against Kyrie Irving or Klay Thompson. If that’s the case, I love this song for Green on Thursday.

Bonus: Luka Doncic 3-point prop

I’m keeping an eye on Luka Doncic in the 3-point prop market – but as of this writing I haven’t deployed his prop yet because the odds of him going ABOVE 2.5 3-pointers (-175) is a bit high for my taste.

Depending on the movement in this prop up to play time, this may be something I add to my card. Doncic has made at least eight 3-pointers in every game this season, but he has gone just 2-for-17 from beyond the arc in his last two games.

If Doncic’s prop stays at 2.5, there’s a chance I end up betting the OVER based on volume, but given his struggles, if that -175 ends up being heavily bet and oddsmakers move the line to 3.5, I might this would be a good place to take the UNDER.

Stay tuned with my Betstamp (@peter2dewey) to get real-time updates on the bets I place.

The odds are updated periodically and are subject to change.

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