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Estimated reading time: 4 minutes

Game overview

Week 9 kicks off with a matchup between a pair of teams navigating difficult waters heading into the second half of the year.

The New York Jets enter another primetime matchup looking for answers amid a five-game skid, straight up and against the spread. Primetime matchups have been particularly challenging for this team, which has played just one of four games in the spotlight, with their only win at home against the Patriots in Week 3.

The offensive problems have been piling up in New York for quite some time, with the stats looking particularly bad despite the losing streak. As of Week 4, the Jets rank in the bottom third of the NFL in overall team offensive rating (69.2) and expected points added per game.

A slow start has plagued the team, which lays claim to some of the league’s worst offensive metrics in the first quarter, including EPA per play (31st), yards per play (28th), turnovers (tied for last) and successful play rate ( 28e). . And despite his overall solid rating profile, quarterback Aaron Rodgers shares responsibility for these issues and ranks last among qualifying graduates in its first quarter pass mark (46.5).

Conversely, the Houston Texans turned around the spread in October, posting a 3-1 record after dropping every spread in September. Given the Texans’ current travails, they have also managed to secure a sub-par game total in all but two games this season.

Injuries have hit Houston’s offense hard lately, with Nico Collins been sidelined since week 5 and Stefon Diggs went back a year last week after a torn cruciate ligament. This leaves the offense stuck in the receiving game while the focus shifts to Tank Dell And Dalton Schultz to bear the burden.

Fortunately, the Texans’ defense has taken the pressure off the offense, putting games within reach each week after a solid pass rush. Over the past three games, Houston’s pass rush has generated the second-highest pressures (67) and recorded the third-highest knockdown rate (19.5%) in the NFL.

RB Joe Mixon, Houston Texans: over 20.5 carries (-108) – 1.9% lead

Since Nico Collins dropped in Week 5, Houston’s offense has posted a top-10 run-play percentage (42.8%). The receiving corps’ injuries continue to worsen, so look for the offense to lean even more on the running game.

Enter Joe Mixon, who was among the most effective backs in the league. Despite going down early in Week 2 and missing the next three games, Mixon has still managed to surpass 100 yards on the ground in every game he has played. Part of that production comes from his significant usage, where he has amassed 25 or more carries in three of his four completed appearances.

Attacking the Jets’ defense on the ground remains a strong approach for opposing offenses, with New York having the sixth-highest percentage of run plays (46.0%). In their eight games this season, they have faced 23 or more rushing attempts from backs in all but one game.

Without much of anyone else in the Texans backfield carrying Mixon’s vulture, this is a strong bet.