An exciting Week 12 concludes with a key AFC tilt between the Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Chargers on “Monday Night Football” (8:30 ET, ESPN).

The tilt marks the first meeting between coaches Jim and John Harbaugh since Super Bowl

Meanwhile, the Ravens saw their two-game winning streak ended at the hands of the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 11, but they are still -155 to win the division on ESPN BET after the Browns upset Pittsburgh on Thursday night. The Ravens opened as 2.5-point favorites with a total of 47.5.

While the AFC West race appears to be over with the Kansas City Chiefs atop the leaderboard, the Chargers are still fighting for playoff positioning. Monday night’s game could play an integral role, with both Los Angeles (7-2) and Baltimore (7-3) battling for playoff position.

Odds current as of publication time, courtesy of ESPN BET

Game lines

Spread: Raven (-2.5)
Moneyline: Raven (-140), Chargers (+120)
Top/bottom: 50.5 points (above -115/below -105)

Distribution over the first half: Raven -0.5 (-110), Chargers +0.5 (-110)
Moneyline first half: Raven (-140), Chargers (+110)
Ravens total points: 26.5 (over -110/under -120)
Total points of chargers: 23.5 (above -125/below -105)

The props

Pass

Justin Herbert total passing yards: 249.5 (over -135/under +105)
Herbert total passing TDs: 1.5 (more than -125/less than -105)
Lamar Jackson total passing yards: 249.5 (above +115/below -145)
Jackson total passing TDs: 1.5 (more than -120/less than -110)

Hurry

Derrick Henry total rushing yards: 79.5 (over -135/under +105)
JK Dobbins total rushing yards: 44.5 (more than -130/less even)
Jackson total rushing yards: 44.5 (over -110/under -120)
Gus Edwards total rushing yards: 24.5 (over even/under -130)
Herbert total rushing yards: 19.5 (above -110/below -120)

Received

Ladd McConkey total receiving yards: 69.5 (over -135/under +105)
Zay Flowers total receiving yards: 59.5 (above -115/below -115)
Quentin Johnston total receiving yards: 49.5 (above -105/below -125)
Rashod Bateman total receiving yards: 39.5 (above -105/below -125)
Will Dissly’s receiving total: 44.5 (over -105/under -125)
Mark Andrews total receiving yards: 29.5 (more than -130/less even)
Isaiah Likely Total Receiving Yards: 24.5 (more than -130/less even)
Dobbins total receiving yards: 14.5 (over -110/under -120)

Eric Moody’s choices

Best guess: Chargers +2.5

The Ravens defense has struggled, especially against the pass, allowing just 16 points against the Steelers in Week 11. Meanwhile, the Chargers defense is allowing the fewest points per game. The Ravens are 6-3 ATS on the road, but the Chargers offense is clicking. They have scored more than 26 points in four straight games, leaning on Justin Herbert and the passing game. Los Angeles is also 4-0-1 ATS in its past five home games. Additionally, the Ravens have dropped four of their past five games in November as road favorites.

Best Bet: Justin Herbert OVER 249.5 passing yards (-135)

This prop immediately caught my attention. Herbert has surpassed that mark in four of his past five games, averaging 274.2 passing yards during that stretch. Here’s the kicker: No defense gives up more passing yards per game than the Ravens. With playmakers like Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston, Herbert has everything he needs to take advantage of that weak secondary.

Best guess: Will Dissly OVER 4.5 receptions (+105)

Dissly was the go-to guy in the Chargers’ tight end rotation, running more routes than Tucker Fisk and Stone Smartt. He has achieved this goal in three of his past five games and has shown consistency when given the opportunity. Baltimore’s secondary issues are no secret: They’re allowing them to finish tight end with the ninth-most receptions and fourth-most receiving yards per game this season. The Ravens defense has relied on two-high coverage on about 43% of their snaps this season, leaving plenty of space — exactly where Dissly thrives. He has caught 16 of 19 targets for 143 yards against two high coverage grades this season, the most receptions on the Chargers in that situation. This matchup is perfect for him to take advantage of short to medium goals.

Best Guess: Ladd McConkey OVER 5.5 Receptions (+105)

McConkey, who works primarily from the field, has emerged as Herbert’s top target and leads the Chargers with 66 targets and 46 receptions. The Ravens’ defense gives up the fifth-most receptions per game to wide receivers, and McConkey’s precise routing makes him a perfect fit to exploit Baltimore’s defense. He has caught 12 of 20 targets for 152 yards against two-high coverage this season, the most receiving yards on the Chargers in that situation. McConkey is well positioned to clear this line in such a favorable match.

Betting Trends

Courtesy of ESPN Research

• The Chargers are 8-2 ATS this season, tied for the top marks in the NFL (Steelers, Lions) this season. They have played four games in a row, their longest streak since 2020-2021 (five).

• The Chargers are 5-0 ATS at home this season. It is their longest streak of home covers since 2007 (six in a row). A cover this week would match their longest ATS winning streak at home in the Super Bowl era (2007, 1992, 1971-1972).

• Overs are 9-2 in Ravens games this season, the highest over percentage in the NFL.

• Lamar Jackson is 16-8 ATS in his career in prime-time games (19-5 straight), including 9-4 ATS/SU on the road. Justin Herbert is 11-7 ATS in primetime games.

• Lamar Jackson is 28-14-2 ATS in his career on the road, including 23-8-1 ATS when not scoring at least seven points.

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