Rio de Janeiro
CNN
—

A major decision by the United States to allow Ukraine to fire long-range missiles deeper into Russian territory has complicated a potential Western diplomatic thaw with Russia as dozens of world leaders meet this week.

Sunday’s decision was seen by many Western leaders as a way to position Ukraine for success ahead of a change in US leadership, with the incoming president skeptical of further US aid.

But it also complicated things for the diplomatic dance leaders attending the G20 summit as they navigated the bloc’s complex geopolitical dynamics.

Russia “will consider the launch of long-range missiles led by US military experts as a qualitatively new phase of war by the West,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said at a news conference at the summit, according to Russian state media TASS.

Lavrov attended the G20 in place of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who faced questions about whether he could be arrested for war crimes on international soil. Days after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called on Brazilian authorities to arrest Putin, the Russian leader said he would skip the summit to avoid disrupting it.

Amid the change in strategy — which Biden had been considering for months — the president and his team stayed out of Lavrov’s way on the ground in Rio.

When Biden missed a photo with other leaders on Monday, speculation was high that he was trying to avoid being photographed with Lavrov. The White House denied that, citing a logistical problem.

Yet neither Biden nor his delegation have held talks with Lavrov or his team, US officials said. And Biden and Lavrov’s fluid schedules kept them from being photographed with other world leaders.

But some Western allies, sensing a major change in the US approach to the conflict once Donald Trump comes to power, appear to be considering a shift in their own attitude towards Moscow.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz spoke by telephone with Putin the week before the summit. In his remarks at the end of the summit, Lavrov also praised the German government’s refusal to send Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine as a “responsible attitude,” TASS reported.

And on the ground in Rio, French President Emmanuel Macron was seen shaking Lavrov’s hand as he stood in line behind him during a “family photo” of those in attendance.

In Rio, Trump’s impending presidency overshadowed almost every discussion about the conflict in Ukraine. Leaders here are well aware of Trump’s views on the war, but less certain how that will manifest itself in policy once he takes power.

For example, it is not clear whether Trump would uphold Biden’s decision to allow Ukraine the long-range capability, a move NATO leaders have encouraged for months. Trump’s new national security adviser, Florida Rep. Mike Waltz, questioned the decision in an interview Monday.

“It’s another step up the escalation ladder and no one knows where this is going,” he said on Fox News, adding that he had received no warning from the outgoing administration about the policy change.

Officials in Rio declined to say whether Biden raised the missile issue with Trump during their two-hour meeting in the Oval Office last week.

“The two presidents discussed a wide range of issues. We were careful not to read that conversation in detail. Certainly the conversation covered all the major issues of geopolitical significance, but I won’t go into them.

There had been hope among Western officials for a strong statement condemning Russia’s invasion at the end of the summit. European diplomats in particular have made a late-stage effort to strengthen the language after Russia’s massive drone and missile attack on Sunday, according to people familiar with the talks.

Ultimately, the effort was halted when it became apparent that other countries were not on board. The language in the leaders’ latest statement was toned down from previous years, including broad references to “human suffering” and “negative added consequences of the war” without explicit condemnation of Russia.

The war in Ukraine produced just one paragraph in the final document, compared to several included in the final document produced by the G20 in New Delhi last year – which was itself watered down from the year before.

As the summit came to a close, it was clear that tensions between the US and Russia were only increasing. Russia announced as the second day of the summit kicked off that it would update its nuclear doctrine and consider aggression by any non-nuclear state – but with the participation of a nuclear country – as a joint attack on Moscow.

US officials were not surprised to learn that Moscow had updated its nuclear doctrine following Biden’s decision on long-range missiles.

“Russia had been signaling for several weeks that it intended to update its doctrine,” a US official said in response to the doctrine update, adding that the US has not observed any update to Russia’s nuclear posture so far – and therefore see no reason to change. the American position.

“This is more of the same irresponsible rhetoric from Russia that we have seen over the past two years,” the official said.

In his closing remarks, Lavrov tried to downplay the change in the fine print of his nuclear stance, shifting the blame instead to the West.

“The update of military doctrine does not add anything that would be different… from US doctrine or documents on what to do with nuclear weapons,” Russian state media said.