Terry Muriekes, a tool store worker at the Boeing factory in Everett, Washington, for 38 years, holds a sign during a strike rally last week.

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SEATTLE – Boeing’s machinists’ union overwhelmingly rejected the company’s first contract offer more than five weeks ago.

Now there is a better offer on the table. And this time the vote could be much closer.

“Our members have been able to get Boeing moving a lot,” said Jon Holden, president of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers District 751.

But even Holden isn’t sure how its 33,000 members will vote on Wednesday.

“I don’t know,” Holden said in an interview. “I know there are a lot of emotions. There is still a lot of anger.”

What seems certain is that Boeing’s problems will survive the strike, whenever it ends. The company is losing more than $1 billion a month as the strike halted production at its factories in the Pacific Northwest.

Even before the strike, Boeing was grappling with production and quality control problems that limited production of its best-selling 737 line. The new CEO, Kelly Ortberg, has announced plans to lay off about 10% of the workforce.

“Recovering our business will require difficult decisions and we will need to make structural changes to ensure we remain competitive,” Ortberg said in a memo to employees earlier this month.

Boeing declined to make Ortberg available for an interview. Since taking over as CEO of Boeing in August, he has kept a low profile. Ortberg is expected to speak publicly for the first time on an earnings call Wednesday morning. The company has already said it will report a loss of at least $5 billion in the third quarter alone.

People sing during a strike rally for the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM) at Seattle Union Hall in Seattle, Washington, on October 15, 2024.

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Ortberg takes over at a crucial time for Boeing. The head of Emirates, a major Boeing customer, said this month that the planemaker could be headed for a credit rating downgrade with bankruptcy “looming on the horizon.”

Boeing quickly announced that it plans to raise billions of dollars to replenish its cash flow — including up to $25 billion by selling stock and other securities, and another $10 billion through a new line of credit.

Other observers say Boeing’s problems aren’t that bad. At least, not yet.

“I don’t think bankruptcy is inevitable,” said Kevin Michaels, director of AeroDynamic Advisory, an industry consultancy. “It’s a possibility. The opportunity is greater today than it was six months ago or a year ago. But I don’t think it’s inevitable.”

Michaels worked closely with Boeing’s CEO in the 1990s when they both worked at Rockwell Collins. And Michaels believes Ortberg’s strategy to shrink the company is fundamentally sound.

“Boeing is a bloated mess,” Michaels said. “They are very top heavy. And that slows down their decision-making.”

In the long term, Michaels thinks Boeing can still turn things around, especially if it is able to sell assets that are underperforming.

For now, the focus is on Boeing’s latest proposal to its standout operators. The machinists’ union credits U.S. Labor Secretary Julie Su with helping restart stalled negotiations.

The company is offering a 35% wage increase – a significant increase from the original 25% offer, but still less than the 40% the union wanted. The company would also increase its contributions to the retirement funds of 401,000 employees.

But there is one important union demand that Boeing has not budged on: the pension plan.

Jon Holden, president of IAM District 751, shakes hands with Kat Kinckiner, a Boeing toolroom worker for 15 years, during a strike rally in Seattle, Washington.

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“When we lost our pensions, I cried,” said Kat Kinckiner, a union official at the Renton, Washington, plant where Boeing assembles the 737. “This was my future. And to see something like that taken at face value was just devastating.

At the meeting in Seattle last week, Kinckiner and other union members made it clear that they want to reinstate the pension plan they lost a decade ago.

“I remember at the time we all said, we’re not taking this next contract,” she said. “It’s not going to happen again. Not for us. Not so.”

IAM 751 president Jon Holden says he understands why some of his members are still angry, and why some are still fighting to get the pension plan back.

“Those wounds don’t heal easily,” he said. “But now it’s ten years later, and it’s not easy to get something like that back.”

Union leadership is not making a recommendation on how members should vote on this offer. That’s a notable difference from the previous vote in September, when the union recommended acceptance — but was sharply criticized by some members.

“We believe it is our responsibility to bring this to the attention of the members so they can make that decision,” Holden said. “I hope they will consider this, but it is up to them.”

KUOW’s Casey Martin reported from Seattle, and Joel Rose reported from Washington, DC