Donald Trump’s return to the White House effectively slammed the door on the two cases involving federal criminal charges against him.

A state case against him for allegedly conspiring to interfere in Georgia’s 2020 election will be stayed until after his term ends — if the case is still pending by then.

But next week the fate of the remaining case – his conviction on 34 felony charges in New York – will be determined. It could continue to exist, or it could be swept away in the same political and legal tide that has done so let him escape from the others.

Judge Juan Merchan will decide Tuesday whether to grant Trump’s request to overturn his conviction. Should Judge Merchan side with Trump, it would all but wipe away his slate of criminal misery.

But if the judge confirms the conviction, he would proceed with sentencing later this month. It would likely lead to more delay attempts by Trump and open an unprecedented new front for the American criminal justice system.

“This is really uncharted territory,” said Anna Cominsky, a professor at New York Law School.

In May, a jury in New York found Trump guilty of falsifying company records. The convictions stemmed from Trump’s attempt to cover up paybacks to his ex-lawyer, Michael Cohen, who in 2016 paid an adult film star to keep quiet about an alleged sexual encounter with Trump.

Trump’s lawyers argue that a recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling granting presidents a degree of immunity from criminal prosecution applies to aspects of his case in New York, and therefore the charges and conviction should be dismissed.

During the trial, Judge Merchan rejected Trump’s lawyers’ attempts to dismiss the case on immunity grounds. But that was before the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in Trump’s favor this summer — and before Trump decisively won reelection.

Justice Merchan has set a deadline of November 12 to decide whether to grant Trump’s request.

If he dismisses the conviction, that’s the end of the case.

But if he denies the defense’s request, Trump’s much-delayed sentencing will remain scheduled for Nov. 26.

Even if Judge Merchan upholds the conviction and upholds the scheduled sentencing, Trump’s team will almost certainly ask for more delays and an appeal.

Todd Blanche, Trump’s lead attorney, did not respond to questions about whether he planned to seek a delay.

Because Trump will be involved in a presidential transition and the legal questions about convicting a president are so complex, some scholars see very little chance that this will remain on the agenda.

“I think the most likely outcome in the state’s case is that the judge delays sentencing until after Trump is in office,” said Daniel Charles Richman, a professor at Columbia Law School.

“Actually imposing a sentence would raise a number of messy issues in the short term,” including political issues, he said.

When Trump ends up in a Manhattan courtroom later this month, deciding his fate would still be an unprecedented challenge.

Under the law, Trump faces a range of penalties, including fines, probation and up to four years in prison. But many options are made impractical by his impending return to the White House.

“Convicting a sitting president can be one of the most complicated and fraught sentencing decisions imaginable,” Cominsky said.

“It is difficult to imagine any punishment that could be imposed that would not hinder a president’s ability to do his job or jeopardize the president’s safety.”

Few expect Judge Merchan to sentence Trump to prison at this point.

“He is a 78-year-old man with no criminal history who was convicted of a non-violent crime,” said retired New York Supreme Court Justice Diane Kiesel. “I don’t think a judge would impose a prison sentence on anyone under these sentences.”

Even if Judge Merchan were to seek such a sentence, Trump’s team would almost certainly appeal, delaying the actual sentence.

Trump could leave a sentencing hearing with the legal equivalent of a slap on the wrist. Judge Merchan could ask the former president to pay a relatively small three- to four-figure fine.

He could also resign Trump unconditionally; “Actually: see you later,” as Judge Kiesel puts it.

The only thing that is certain is that Trump cannot make this belief disappear on his own.

Trump has in the past explored the possibility of pardoning himself for possible criminal charges, and could do so for his federal charges if he becomes president in January.

But he cannot pardon himself in New York since the conviction occurred in state court.

His fate is currently in the hands of the court. But regardless of the outcome, Trump will likely avoid the harshest punishments he faces.

“He is a very happy man,” Judge Kiesel said.