There’s nothing quite like the thrill of (trying to) figure out the puzzle of each week of the college football season. The thrill of finding an underdog with the potential to pull off an upset, predicting the highest and lowest scoring games and what over/unders to bet on, and of course, discovering the best bet of the week that could make all the difference.

Each week I discuss the numbers, trends and insights that ultimately influence my decisions. But before I begin, there are three rules every gambler should keep in mind: never bet more than you can afford to lose, always keep it fun, go for it and enjoy the match day.

And here we go. Let’s tackle the matchups from Week 1.

All lines are current at time of publication, courtesy of ESPN BET.

Three underrated underdogs in week 1

When evaluating underdogs, I don’t just look at teams that can cover the spread, but also teams that can win outright. Georgia Tech shocked Florida State as a 10.5-point underdog in Week 0. Surprises can always happen, especially in these early weeks, but the theme of Week 1 is recurring production.

Here are the three underdog teams that could spring a surprise in week 1:

Coastal Carolina (+2.5) at Jacksonville State

Chanticleers coach Tim Beck announced he wouldn’t name a starting quarterback until game day, but he’s said he’d go with the quarterback with the most experience over talent. If that’s the case, Ethan Vasko is the guy. He was the third-string quarterback (76-122, 799 yards in eight games last season) after starter Grayson McCall was injured midway through the year. If it’s not Vasko, Michigan State transfer Noah Kim is the pick, but I’m betting it’s Vasko because of his familiarity with the system. Vasko is more than capable, and led Coastal to a 28-24 win over Old Dominion last season, overcoming a 15-point deficit.

The key for Coastal Carolina is the offensive line. It was a major strength last season, ranking 24th in the nation with just 17 sacks allowed, the fewest in the Sun Belt Conference. The line will continue to be a strength with the return of key starters, including All-Sun Belt honorable mention Nick Del Grande. The Chanticleers have a balanced offense. They averaged at least 100 rushing yards and 250 passing yards in nine of 12 games last season, and their offensive strategy should remain largely the same this year. Vasko was second on the team in rushing yards (318), and RB Braydon Bennett returns for a fifth year.

I like continuity, and Jacksonville State will have some changes to its roster. The Gamecocks were the third-best rushing offense, but they are missing two players (quarterback Zion Webb and RB Malik Johnson) who combined for half of the team’s rushing yards and nearly half of the team’s rushing scores. The Gamecocks’ top two tacklers are also gone. Coastal Carolina can start Week 1 with a win and continue to build for a future without McCall in the lineup.

West Michigan (+24) at Wisconsin

The Badgers have new talent, including Miami transfer quarterback Tyler Van Dyke, and we can expect a big dose of the passing game as it continues to develop under offensive coordinator Phil Longo. Twenty-four points is a lot to cover with Van Dyke under center. He was the fifth-most interceptions in the nation last season (12 in 11 games with Miami) and has a tendency to force throws into coverage rather than opting for safer checkdowns. We’ll see if Longo’s scheme helps Van Dyke reduce his turnovers by providing clearer reads and better protection.

Western Michigan finished 4-8 last year as the Broncos’ secondary struggled. That should change, however, under new defensive coordinator Scott Power. Power’s defense at Louisiana Tech ranked 26th in turnovers in the nation in 2022. The Broncos also have key players returning, including their top safety, top two linebackers and top cornerback. Two of those players, CB Bilhal Kone and LB Damari Roberson, are returning seniors who could disrupt Van Dyke with their size, versatility and experience.

Asking WMU to win outright (+1300) as a 24-point underdog is … not the smartest move. However, Miami lost as a 19.5-point favorite to Georgia Tech last season with Van Dyke at quarterback. Anything is possible in Week 1, but a 24-point cover is realistic.

James Madison at Charlotte (+6.5)

The Charlotte 49ers finished 2023 with a 3-9 record, but showed competitiveness against ranked teams like Florida, SMU and Memphis. Only three wins, and still only a near touchdown underdog to the James Madison Dukes. Interesting.

Charlotte got an upgrade at quarterback with Florida transfer Max Brown, who saw six games as a reserve for the Gators. Brown’s first start at the college level came against top-ranked Florida State, where he flashed potential. He’s known for his strong arm and ability to make plays both in the air and on the ground, but it’s his athleticism and competitive nature that make him a valuable addition to Charlotte’s offense, which struggled with consistency last season.

Meanwhile, James Madison is entering a new era under coach Bob Chesney after Curt Cignetti left for Indiana. As a result, many of the Dukes’ starters from last season have left the program on both ends, including star QB Jordan McCloud. The 6.5-point spread highlights the fragility of what is essentially a program starting over.

Lowest/Highest Game Totals of the Week

It is interesting to look at the high and low point totals of the week and perhaps spot an exaggeration in the market.

Lowest total of week 1: Miami (OH) at Northwestern, 39.5
Prediction: MORE THAN 39.5

This total has seen movement from the opening line of 41.5. This line movement doesn’t scare me. Brett Gabbert returns to the RedHawks for his sixth season and threw for 1,634 yards and 14 touchdowns in limited action last year. His ability to stretch the field and his presence alone elevates the offense.

Northwestern will select either Mike Wright or Jack Lausch as its QB. Wright is a graduate transfer from Mississippi State with prior experience at Vanderbilt. Wright is known for his dual-threat abilities, having amassed 1,229 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns in his career, in addition to his passing skills. Lausch is a redshirt sophomore who attended Northwestern and has developed within the program. He has less game experience, but familiarity with the program.

I expect Wright to get the start, with Zach Lujan in his first year as Northwestern’s offensive coordinator. Luhan brings experience from South Dakota State, where he successfully utilized a mobile quarterback. A game with two mobile quarterbacks, expected to lead more dynamic and efficient offenses, could push this game to OVER 39.5.

Highest: North Texas to South Alabama, 64.5
Prediction: UNDER 64.5

North Texas is known for its blazing fast offense, ranking fifth in yards per game last year and second in plays per game. The Mean Green like to pass and play fast. However, UNT lost its top two running backs, Ayo Adeyi and Oscar Adaway, who combined for 1,755 of the team’s 2,294 total rushing yards. Establishing the run early can create play-action opportunities to keep the defense off balance. That run-game strength is gone now. Also new is TCU transfer quarterback Chandler Morris, while leading receiver Ja’Mori Maclin has transferred to Kentucky.

Morris had a challenging 2023 season, limited by injuries, including a sprained MCL that caused him to miss significant time. His injury limitations and missed time in 2023 could impact a season opener with such a high total, especially with key offensive pieces missing.

South Alabama is also without its top running back and has a new quarterback and top receiver. If I’m going to give an OVER, I want to make sure both offenses can produce. Given that both teams have more questions than answers, this total is too high based on last year’s offense successes.

Week 1 Best Bet: Western Kentucky at Alabama OVER 59.5

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Should bettors accept the over for Alabama vs. Western Kentucky?

Pam Maldonado joins “ESPN BET Live” to discuss her Week 1 play for college football, including Alabama’s win over Western Kentucky.

I love air raid offenses. Western Kentucky does just that, known for its high volume of passing plays and fast tempo. The Hilltoppers averaged over 70 plays per game in 2023, showing their ability to maintain a fast tempo that can lead to high scores. I expect no different with Texas State transfer quarterback TJ Finley. Last season, Finley threw for 3,439 yards and 24 touchdowns, showing his ability to effectively run the offense.

The Hilltoppers have two of their top three receivers back who will be reliable targets downfield. Leading back Elijah Young also returns and is a threat in the passing game, catching 20 passes for 247 yards and three touchdowns. His versatility adds another dimension to the offense.

Western Kentucky’s defense is weak, ranking 108th out of 133 teams in total yards allowed last season. Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe and company will have a field day. A dual-threat quarterback, Milroe brings both passing and rushing ability to Alabama’s offense. Bama lost some top talent, but it’s the Crimson Tide in the SEC, and I have no doubt the talent coming in will mesh well with new coach Kalen DeBoer at the helm.

Alabama may have an SEC defense, but they’re not immune to high-scoring stuff, with 56 points against Middle Tennessee and 40-plus points in five games last year. Don’t be surprised if Milroe and the Bama offense score 56 points on their own against this defense.