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College Football Week 9 Odds, Picks, Bets
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College Football Week 9 Odds, Picks, Bets

Notre Dame and Navy have played 94 times since 1927.

This rivalry has always paid off, but the stakes haven’t been this high since 1978, when the undefeated Midshipmen traveled to Cleveland to take on the 15th-ranked Fighting Irish.

This time around, both programs have a legitimate chance to play their way into the College Football Playoff, but that will have to start with a win on Saturday at MetLife Stadium.

This isn’t your grandpa’s Navy offense.

The Mids are averaging over 44 points per game and have cracked the code when it comes to generating big plays.

In just six games, Navy has burned the defense 13 times on plays of 40 yards or more.

There are two explanations for this offensive glow. The first is quarterback play.

Blake Horvath runs the offense to perfection, ranking third in QBR and leading the nation in yards per pass attempt (12.3).

The second element that has contributed to Navy’s explosiveness is the addition of Drew Cronic to the coaching staff.

The former head coach at Mercer has revamped Navy’s offense by introducing Wing T elements to the traditional three-way option.

The result was players running wild in the second and third levels of the opponent’s defense.

If you pick out parts of their film, Navy’s passing attack has all the modern bells and whistles we’ve come to expect from a Chip Kelly or Steve Sarkisian offense.

You’ll find a good dose of shotgun looks, run-pass options, screen passes to almost every position on the field, naked bootlegs, and a complex route tree for runners out of the backfield.

Cronic’s philosophy centers around the idea of ​​pre-snap motion, deception and sleight of hand to force the defense to defend the width of the field.

The end result is that the defense plays slower. Paralysis by analysis, as coaches like to say.

Notre Dame will have to cram for this football test and without a bye week, Navy will likely continue to make big plays through the air and on the ground.


Navy running back Eli Heidenreich aims for a long gain in the second half of an NCAA college football game against Air Force on Saturday, Oct. 5, 2024, at the Air Force Academy, Colo.
Navy running back Eli Heidenreich aims for a long gain in the second half of an NCAA college football game against Air Force on Saturday, Oct. 5, 2024, at the Air Force Academy, Colo. AP

If you dig into Notre Dame’s defensive profile, you’ll see that the Irish struggle with a few run concepts that belong squarely in Navy’s wheelhouse.

The Mids excel at running plays and counters, and Notre Dame is barely in the top 100 in defense.

And if the Irish put more effort into stopping the run by loading the box, Eli Heidenreich and the other Navy pass catchers will do some damage.

Before last week, Heidenreich had broken a long play of at least 39 yards in every game this season.

The former high school receiver has become a Swiss Army Knife for the Midshipmen, and he should be able to pop at least one against the Irish on Saturday afternoon.

The reason this spread is so generous starts and ends with planning.

Navy enjoyed early wins against teams like Bucknell, Temple and UAB before taking its first-semester exam against Memphis, a 56-44 shootout victory.


Betting on college football?


The perception is that Notre Dame’s path has been much more difficult after playing Texas A&M and Louisville.

But in reality, these two teams have a nearly identical schedule: Notre Dame 70th, Navy 71st, according to College Football Network.

Northern Illinois clinched the game and used its rushing attack to upset Notre Dame in South Bend.

Despite its explosiveness, the Navy still operates the aircraft 77.54 percent of the time, the second-highest usage rate in America.

The tone has been set and the formula is in place for Navy to torpedo Notre Dame’s season.

Recommendation: Navy +13.5 (+105, BetMGM)


Why trust New York Post betting

Mike Calabrese is a handicapper for the New York Post, with a keen focus on college sports. His betting advice often focuses on situational locations, including travel, rest and elevation changes.