Topline

Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump each gained three votes as the small New Hampshire town of Dixville Notch ended its long-running tradition of being the first in the country to announce its results — even though the results are historically a far cry from the city’s results. of predicting the statewide vote or national outcome.

Key facts

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Big number

4.9 points. That’s the size of Harris’ lead in New Hampshire according to the weighted average of FiveThirtyEight’s polls in the state.

Important background

Despite Dixville Notch’s long tradition of being the “first in the country” to announce election results, its track record as a bellwether is less than perfect. Earlier this year, all six of the city’s voters supported Nikki Haley in the Republican presidential primary, but she ultimately lost the state to Trump by 10 points. During the 2020 presidential election, Biden scored a 5-0 victory over Trump in the city, winning the state by more than seven points. In 2016, Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton defeated Trump 4-2 in the city, winning the state by a razor-thin margin of 0.4 points. Ten votes were cast in the city in 2012, with former President Barack Obama and Republican candidate Mitt Romney each receiving five votes, but Obama won the state by a margin of 5.5 points.

Read more

Haley defeats Trump in late-night voting at Dixville Notch (Forbes)