• The Polymarket whale that gambled on a Trump win had about $3 million in unrealized losses as of Monday morning.
• The closely watched gambler had more than $10 million in winnings before Trump’s odds fell last week.
• The person controls a significant portion of the contracts tied to a Trump victory, with about $30 million wagered.

The ‘whale’ placing big bets on Polymarket for Doland Trump to win the presidential election is in the red after betting shifted towards Kamala Harris this weekend.

According to data from Polymarket and compiled by Business Insider, the anonymous election gambler, who was recently revealed to be a trader from France, had about $3 million in unrealized losses across his four known accounts as of Monday morning.

The gambler’s unrealized wins and losses have seen volatile swings over the past week, accelerated by a shock Iowa poll released this weekend that showed Kamala Harris ahead of the former president in the reliably red state.

The Polymarket whale had posted an unrealized profit of about $10 million in late October, before Trump’s betting odds began to decline.

The Polymarket account Theo4, one of four controlled by the whale, had the biggest loss of all his bets, with a cumulative loss of $2.5 million as of Monday morning.

There has been much speculation about the identity and motivation of the person behind the accounts, with a number of theories circulating in recent weeks about what could be going on.

However, in a report from The Wall Street Journal, which contacted the Polymarket whale, the person said the bets are simply a compelling view on the outcome of the election.

“My intention is just to make money,” the man, whose name is Théo, said during a Zoom call with reporters from The Journal last week.

“I have absolutely no political agenda,” Théo said in an email to the Journal.

Théo could see an $80 million payout if Trump wins the election, or he could lose all of the $30 million he has placed in various bets if Harris wins.

The Journal noted that the person is locked into the trades due to the sheer size of his bets and the market’s relatively low liquidity.

According to Polymarket data, Théo holds about 25% of the contracts for Trump to win the Electoral College and more than 40% of the contracts for Trump to win the popular vote.

If Théo were to liquidate these contracts before Tuesday’s election, he would likely not be able to sell all of his positions at current prices, as too much selling pressure could push the price of the contracts significantly lower.

For example, a hypothetical sale of Théo’s 47 million shares to Trump to win the election would occur at an estimated average price of just $0.02, according to Polymarket, which would represent a 96% loss for the trader. Théo paid an average price of about $0.56 cents for the 47 million shares.

Meanwhile, a hypothetical sale of Théo’s nearly 20 million shares to Trump to win the popular vote would occur at an average price of less than a tenth of a cent, according to Polymarket, which would represent a near-total loss.

With so much money at stake, Théo says he is nervous, even though he believes Trump has an 80 to 90 percent chance of winning the election.

“There can always be a surprise,” Théo told the Journal.