Republican candidate Donald Trump narrowly leads Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris for the first time since August in the average of national polls from aggregator RealClearPolling.

Early Monday, Trump led by a whisker: he was ahead by 0.1 point with 48.5 percent, compared to Harris’ 48.4 percent.

Opinion polls measure the votes of the people. A candidate could win this but still lose the election if he fails to secure 270 of the 538 Electoral College votes, a number based on each state’s delegates in the Senate and House of Representatives. According to FiveThirtyEight’s Electoral College simulations of election results, Trump would win the Electoral College 54 times out of 100, while Harris would prevail 45 times out of 100 as of Monday morning.

Trump’s narrow lead is in stark contrast to his stance against then-rival President Joe Biden, this time during the 2020 election. At the same point in the race, Biden led by a comfortable 7.5 points. Trump had 43.6 percent support, while Biden had 51.1 percent according to RealClearPolling’s then-average.

In 2016, then-Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton led Trump by 4.6 points, with 47.1 percent support to the latter’s 42.5 percent, although Trump would later win that election.

“President Trump has surpassed Kamala Harris, and voters know that America can no longer survive under Kamala’s destructive policies of rising inflation, an out-of-control border and rampant crime terrorizing every community,” Trump’s campaign spokesman said.

Newsweek also contacted the Harris campaign for comment via email outside of standard business hours.

However, other major aggregators of national polls have found Harris with a marginal lead.

As of early Monday, FiveThirtyEight’s national average had Harris at 48.1 percent support and Trump at 46.7 percent, while statistician Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin blog had Harris at 48.6 and Trump at 47.4 percent.

Betting pools currently favor Trump.

Oddsmakers give the Republican a 61.1 percent chance of victory and Harris a 37.7 percent chance as of Monday morning.

As for the all-important swing states, Trump currently has a slight lead in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada and Arizona, while Harris leads in Michigan and Wisconsin.

Trump pulled ahead of Harris in Pennsylvania last week, marking the first time since July that the Republican had the advantage in the Keystone State.

Trump led Biden in the state before the latter dropped out of the race in July. Democratic presidential candidate Harris has been marginally in the lead since then, but last Monday the FiveThirtyEight national average had Trump 0.3 points ahead of Harris.

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