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Election guru Nate Silver accuses pollsters of ‘putting their finger on the scale’ and lying to keep the presidential race close
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Election guru Nate Silver accuses pollsters of ‘putting their finger on the scale’ and lying to keep the presidential race close

Polling guru Nate Silver lashed out at other research junkies in his field for “cheating” in the latter part of the 2024 presidential election — accusing them of recycling some results to keep the race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris close.

The founder of FiveThirtyEight said irresponsible pollsters were “saving” their numbers, or using past results to influence current ones, to keep Vice President Harris and former President Trump within a few points of each other every time.

“I actually trust pollsters less,” Silver said on his podcast, in which he took a closer look at Emerson College. “All of them, every time a pollster (says), ‘Oh, every single state is just plus-one, every single state is a tie,’ no! You’re fucking herding! You’re cheating! You’re cheating!” he smoked.

Polling guru Nate Silver lashed out at other research junkies in his field for “cheating” during the final stretch of the 2024 presidential election. PBS

“Your numbers aren’t all going to be exactly at one point if you sample 800 people through dozens of surveys,” Silver said.

“You lie! You’re putting your damn finger on the scale!’”

Silver’s own vaunted model gives Trump a lead over Harris, 55% to 45%, as voters prepare to go to the polls in just three days.

His disdain also extended to “all these Republican Party-leaning companies,” narrowly putting the former president ahead each time by showing that they “don’t go too far.”

“If a pollster never puts out numbers that surprise you, then it has no value,” he said.

Silver condemned most other pollsters, with the exception of the New York Times, saying the rest were “largely just f—king about this election.”

Silver said irresponsible pollsters are “herding” their numbers to keep Vice President Harris and former President Trump within a point or two of each other every time. Getty Images

“But look, all seven swing states are still polling, it looks like a point and a half here,” he hedged.

“It doesn’t take a genius to know that if every swing state is a tie, the overall forecast is also a tie.”

Trump, 78, currently leads Harris, 60, in both the national (+0.3%) and swing-state (+0.9%) averages of recent polls collected by RealClearPolitics.

In the latest New York Times/Siena College poll earlier this month, the two were tied at 48%.

Silver was a little less data-driven in a recent Times op-ed about the contest, admitting that his “hunch says” Trump will win.

Silver’s own vaunted model gives Trump a lead over Harris, 55% to 45%, as voters prepare to go to the polls in just three days. AP

“In elections where the seven battleground states all vote within a percentage point or two, 50-50 is the only responsible prediction,” Silver wrote.

“But when I deliver this unsatisfactory news, I inevitably get asked, ‘Come on, Nate, how are you feeling?'” he continued. “So okay, I’ll tell you. My feeling says Donald Trump. And I suspect that this applies to many concerned Democrats.”

For the past eight years, pollsters have discussed the difficulty of including Trump supporters in surveys, creating a “non-response bias” that destroys the results.

“It’s not that Trump voters are lying to pollsters; it’s that pollsters didn’t reach enough of them in 2016 and 2020,” Silver explained in his op-ed.

Data companies can collect false information from voters about who they voted for in the last election, Silver also said.

He further noted that party registration is now about even in many places, saying that “about the same number of people now identify as Republicans.”

Silver has publicly analyzed election results since Barack Obama’s 2008 victory over John McCain and currently writes on his own Substack titled “Silver Bulletin.”