Every week in the NBA is its own story – full of surprises, both positive and negative – and fantasy managers will have to decide what to believe and what not to believe going forward. Maybe we can help. If any of these thoughts come true… don’t be surprised!

Don’t be surprised if… 76ers C Joel Embiid misses another half of the season

Apologies for starting off on a negative note, but this situation already seems dire. Embiid has obvious and chronic knee issues, and the Philadelphia 76ers recently announced he would sit out the entire preseason to manage his health. The team also made it clear that Embiid will not participate on either side of the scheduled 14 back-to-backs this season, promptly erasing nearly a fifth of his potential schedule. The 76ers want Embiid to be healthy for the playoffs, period. Previous examples of load management have not worked. Will this work? Who knows, but we have to be realistic in fantasy.

On a per-game production level, Embiid has few peers. The two-time NBA scoring champion improved last season, averaging 34.7 PPG, along with 11 RPG and easily a career-best 5.6 APG. He was one of only three players to average more than 60 ESPN fantasy points per game, but of course he played in only 39 games. ESPN Fantasy points leaders Nikola Jokic, Luka Doncic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Anthony Davis missed a combined 37 games, an average of seven per player. Simply put, fantasy managers cannot treat Embiid like other elite players (top 10) in drafts, trades, etc.

Philadelphia signed rebounder Andre Drummond because it knew Embiid would be a modest — at best — regular-season contender, as if the six months leading up to the postseason hardly mattered. Well, they are certainly important to us in fantasy! The 76ers, with Tyrese Maxey, perhaps two-thirds of a Paul George season and plenty of experienced depth, can afford this patience. Fantasy managers, who replace Embiid in daily formats with the likes of available centers Ivica Zubac and Dereck Lively II, and never know what to do in weekly competitions, will be frustrated.

None of this means you shouldn’t draft Embiid, but I certainly wouldn’t go near him in the middle of Round 1. I’d drop him in the top 20 picks, especially in weekly formats, and that means I won’t get it, which is fine. Covet healthy players. You can argue that Embiid’s active roster spot plus someone like Zubac, Lively or Jakob Poeltl will remain productive enough because Embiid’s statistical shock is worth it. Certainly. Maybe. Maybe Embiid plays in 60 games? We crave clarity, and we have little here, which often hinders decision-making.

Now the 76ers just have to keep the rest of the team healthy enough to win more than 45 games. Can you stay healthy, Paul George?

Don’t be surprised if… Andre Drummond leads the league in rebounds

Okay, maybe that’s a bit much, but Drummond remains a fit, motivated, recovering monster, averaging 9 RPGs in just 17.1 MPG for the Bulls last season. In his 10 starts for Nikola Vucevic, Drummond averaged 14.1 PPG and 17.9 RPG, along with 1.1 SPG and 1.8 BPG (that matters too!), looking a lot like the guy fantasy managers loved the Pistons a while ago. Drummond is on the wrong side of 30, but he shows no signs of that as he eagerly gobbled down rebounds last season and this preseason.

Drummond will start at least 30 games this season, probably more. It can average 25 plus MPG overall. Drummond isn’t much of an offensive option anymore, but he’s hitting his field goal attempts and not getting to the line enough to make his fantasy nightmares there painful. Would you bet against Drummond averaging 13.7 RPG like Kings star Domantas Sabonis did a season ago? You don’t have to be an Embiid investor to secure Drummond in the late rounds. There’s a valuable season in store, and there should be some value even if Embiid does well.

Don’t be surprised if… James Harden averages 30 PPG

Embiid’s former 76ers teammate is in the middle of Round 3 in ESPN average live drafts. Yeah, I just don’t see that anywhere near his statistical value. If Harden were to average 16.6 PPG and 8.5 RPG again, like he did last season when Clippers buddies Kawhi Leonard and Paul George combined to average over 46 PPG, then there are certainly better ones, younger point guards capable of greater things. Leonard isn’t playing fast with his knee issues – watch Embiid get into more games, and I already wrote my meager expectations there – and George is now Embiid’s teammate (and with his own knee injury).

Harden probably isn’t too disappointed with the turn of events because he wants the custom. He wants all usage. That doesn’t necessarily mean Harden doesn’t want to win basketball games, but he never seems to mind doing so himself. Just look at what’s surrounding him in the first few weeks/months of the season. Zubac is a defender, hardly a scorer. Norman Powell can score, but that’s about it. Terance Mann should step up. Man, former Rockets lightning rod Kevin Porter Jr. can score 20 PPG on this team that has no frontcourt and can shoot as many three-pointers as possible, barely defending and looking like the high-flying Pacers of last season.

Harden’s most recent season of ridiculous usage was his final season with the Rockets, when he averaged 34.3 PPG in 36.5 MPG, with fewer assists – because he wasn’t passing as much – but a wild 4.4 3-point attempts per match. He did what he wanted, and it was mainly bringing the ball up and shooting from deep. Okay, so he was 30 then and 34 now. In recent seasons playing alongside superstars, his efficiency has waned and he has seemed unmotivated to get to the free-throw line, but Harden has shot better than 38% from the line each of the past two seasons. 3-point range, as he played with a relatively stacked cast. from teammates.

That is hardly the agreement now. I don’t think Harden is too old or has slipped too much to be able to command a top-5 usage rate. He needs to be at this club. Consider a motivated Harden as a potential top-10 fantasy option.

Don’t be surprised if… Stephon Castle wins Rookie of the Year

Four players have higher odds via ESPN BET to win this prestigious award (Zach Edey, Reed Sheppard, Zaccharie Risacher, Alex Sarr), and they may all be statistically great right off the bat, but Castle looked so mature and ready in the action in the preseason. I think it’s worth reaching him early in the draft. Are we really going to let Castle fade away because veteran Chris Paul, who has appeared in fewer than 60 games over the past two seasons and is likely a trade asset, is currently standing in the way?

Paul is an expert distributor and future Hall of Famer, averaging 6.8 APG in 26.4 MPG for the Suns last season, but the Spurs still seem an unlikely Western contender, so why give so many minutes to Paul or PG Tre Jones. Better yet, just give Castle the two-guard role (he’s 6-foot-4) with Devin Vassell (foot) out. Castle scored 17 points in 22 minutes against the Magic last week, got to the free throw line 10 times, hit a pair of 3-pointers, had four assists, and we saw him play defense at UConn. He won’t need much time to learn at the NBA level. He’s ready now and he deserves big minutes.