Severe storms are causing a First Warning Weather Day, our highest warning, for Wednesday.

Storms are likely across much of the area on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Some of the storms are likely to be severe, bringing a risk for large hail, damaging winds and some tornadoes. Hail and high winds pose the greatest risk, especially since the wind is heavy before the storm ever forms. It will not be difficult for thunderstorms to add a little more to the wind, creating gusts of more than 100 km per hour. Tornadoes may also form as quick spin-ups are possible with Wednesday’s setup. It is a day to stay informed and that is why it has been given our highest alert.

Storms can come in two rounds. The first round would take place in the mid to late afternoon where strong storms could emerge. These would be isolated, and not the primary round. There is no certainty that this round will occur, but if it does, it is likely the one with the highest tornado risk. A second round will take place around sunset northwest of Kansas City. This will be a solid line running across the area and will produce almost all of the rainwater. This round arrives in the metro around 10pm and leaves the area around midnight…give or take. It poses a significant wind and hail risk. As for rain totals, they will vary greatly depending on whether you find yourself below the center of a thunderstorm, or if you are on the edge. Generally, a quarter to 1″ is expected. These will be fast storms, so they probably won’t have enough time to produce massive rainfall.

Otherwise it will be windy on Wednesday with gusts of up to 60 km per hour. The highest gusts will occur in the morning and it will start off warm with lows in the upper 60s. The afternoon will break into the mid 70s.

Behind the storms it will be much cooler and dry for Halloween. It will be sunny with highs in the upper 50s, and low 50s for Trick ‘r Treaters in the evening. Friday will also be dry and cool with low temperatures in the low 60s.

On to the weekend, because we first warn you about wet weather. Computer forecasts are uncertain about when the next storm system will form, whether it will be Saturday or Sunday, but Saturday does have a chance of rain. We can determine that in the coming days, but Sunday looks quite wet. The heavy rain showers will continue until Monday and Tuesday. This could be a drought-prone rainstorm, with up to half a meter of rain expected over the next seven days. This could almost eliminate our rainfall deficit for the year of about 7″. Flooding will be a problem, but this can be mitigated by the rain spreading over several days.

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