January 1, 1986, I’m 5.5 years old and Iowa is playing UCLA in the Rose Bowl. I’m not going to lie, I have no memory of this game whatsoever. Sure, the names of the Iowa players are familiar (Chuck Long, Ronny Harmon, Quinn Early, etc…). I’ll admit, only one name on the UCLA roster stands out (and I’m honestly surprised no one mentioned it) – that I’ve heard – leading up to this game: Flipper Anderson. It’s pretty cool and interesting that two consecutive games (assuming there’s ~39 years between them) have a father and son playing on different sides of the ball. I think what I remember most about this game in my life is people arguing about whether Ronnie Harmon’s performance could be attributed to something more nefarious than a kid just playing a bad game (even Hayden Fry had to come to his aid).

Iowa’s history in the Rose Bowl isn’t exactly confidence-inspiring (their last win in Pasadena was in 1952) and our last four trips have been, well, not exactly fun. However, this will be Iowa’s first ever regular season game in the Rose Bowl and a win would be a first for Kirk Ferentz at the stadium. It may not be a bowl game, but it will still be historic, and it sounds like there will be a lot of Black & Gold in the stands.

Let’s see what the numbers tell us about this matchup.

Offence

Photo by Keith Gillett/IconSportswire

Iowa – 356.1 ypg (133.8 yd passing, 222.3 yd rushing), 30.8 ppg
UCLA – 309.1 ypg (235.3 passing, 73.9 rushing), 18.6 ppg

Last Saturday, Iowa put on a rushing clinic, racking up 329 yards on the ground (6.1 ypc) with 4 different players (KJ2, KM28, JP9, and QB1) rushing for more than 50 yards in a game (maybe someday, I’m not going to do that research). Brendan Sullivan did what we expected of him, he made the makeables, took care of the ball and kept himself out of dangerous situations. 7/10 for 93 yards, 1 TD and 0 INTs isn’t going to win anyone any awards, but if Iowa can average 6 ypc and 5 rushing TDs per game, I don’t think anyone is going to complain (especially if he picks up first downs with his legs, extends plays and keeps defenses honest as a running threat). He also managed to throw the longest play from scrimmage that Iowa has had this year (Zac Ortwerth’s 50+ scamper), so, you know, not that bad. Let’s hope he can repeat that performance in LA, because no one knows what QB2 looks like in a game situation.

Let’s be honest: Wisconsin is a bad team right now and luckily for Iowa, UCLA is a pretty bad team right now too. DeShaun Foster has taken over a program in disarray and is doing an admirable job rebuilding what Chip Kelly neglected, but it’s his first year and he’s pretty much starting from scratch. Last week’s win in Lincoln over a Raiola-less Nebraska team gave him his first winning streak and the biggest road win of his very young career, but neither Rutgers nor Nebraska are Iowa, at least not “November.” Iowa.

Like Breadyn Locke in Madison, UCLA’s Ethan Garbers can be dangerous for both teams. He’s not a mobile QB, but he can make plays with his legs when needed and he’s completing 65% of his passes for 12.1 ypc and has thrown 10 TDs. Unfortunately for UCLA, he has also thrown 9 INTs. There isn’t much to talk about in the run game, where carries are split three ways and none of UCLA’s three backs have amassed more than 230 yards in 8 games. Foster is still looking for his first win in Pasadena as a HC, not sure if this is the week that happens especially since the team just came off a tough road trip with back to back road games in Piscataway and Lincoln and now looking at a short week.

ADVANTAGE: Iowa (provided QB1 plays the entire game)

Defense

Jeffrey Becker-Imagn images

Iowa – 309.8 ypg (203.4 passing, 106.3 rushing, 5.0 ypp), 18 ppg
UCLA – 361.6 ypg (261.3 passing, 100.4 rushing, 5.5 ypp), 27.9 ppg

For the second week in a row, Iowa’s defense all but shut down their opponent. The Badgers were able to move the ball on their first drive, but after taking an FG lead it was pretty much all Iowa until garbage time (I’d say any drive that happens after you’re up 25 points is garbage time ) . Between their first drive and their ninth, Iowa forced five punts and picked off Braedyn Locke twice, allowing WIscons just 71 yards on 30 plays (2.36 ypp). That’s very, very good. Deshaun Lee had a TD save PBU on that first drive and an INT on the second and then shut down his side of the field for most of the night. Jermari Harris got beat for possibly the first time all season, giving up UW’s only TD (to pull them within 18 in the 4th), but otherwise looked untouchable, and the rest of the D looked more like last year than the entire year round. It’s a good trend and I hope it continues.

UCLA’s defense last year was incredible; in fact, there were only five defenses in the country that were superior (Iowa was one of them). That defense was led by D’Anton Lynn, who is now the defensive coordinator at USC. Needless to say, UCLA’s defense has let some down, but they are still holding their own against the offense (only 3.3 ypc allowed), so the Offensive Line has their work cut out for them. However, their secondary is pretty bad, giving up over 260 yards per game, so maybe this is the game where we see Tim Lester crack open the playbook and emphasize the P in RPO a little more, especially since UCLA isn’t putting up huge sack numbers.

ADVANTAGE – Iowa (but I think it’s closer than the numbers show)

Special teams

Photo by Matthew Holst/Getty Images

Iowa – 45.4 years ago, 78.6% FGM, 25.3 years ago, 12.9 years ago, 1 TD
UCLA – 43.1 years, 80% FGM, 18.7 years, 14.3 years, 14.3 years

Rhys Dakin was actually the only S/T player who had a chance to influence the match last Saturday, and even then it didn’t have a huge impact. He averaged 53.3 ypp (with a long of 57), but like Iowa on all four possessions in the second half, his play was done at the half and Drew was perfect in the XP play. Drew is still second on the team in points (and there’s a lot of yardage in both directions), but hasn’t had many chip shots lately, and Kaden has been forced into a lot of fair catches and touchbacks since the home game against NW.

Fun fact: UCLA’s QB1 (Ethan Garbers) has 1 punt for 41 yards this season. Their regular punter is a Scottsdale native who averages 43.4 yards per punt with a long of 61 and a ~43% IN20%. He’s no Rhys Dakin, but he’s no slouch. You would think that UCLA would have returned a lot of kicks based on their average points allowed, but they seem to be letting a lot of kicks go for TBs, and they have returned a total of 4 kicks on the season.

ADVANTAGE – Iowa (as if there was any real doubt)

DeShaun Foster was something of a surprise offseason hire after Chip Kelly left for Columbus and had his work cut out for him. He’s not there yet, but his kids are playing hard and it’s clear he wants to get UCLA back to where they were during his first few years of college. You never know how things will go when you hire a former player with no Head Coaching experience, but sometimes things work out…

That said, this is Iowa’s game to lose (which they might do). There’s no QB controversy this week, but if Sullivan has a poor performance, the Hawks could be rolling into College Park in two weeks.

Numbers to keep an eye on

1 – Brendan Sullivan, QB1. We will all keep a close eye on it.

2 – KJ2 added three more TDs and another 100+ yard run last week, and while he probably won’t break Shonn Greene’s distance record, it’s almost certain the TD record will fall this week.

4 – Ethan Garbers is the heart of this offense and if he can have another game like he has the last two weeks, this game could get away from the Hawks. His season stats may not be great, but the last two weeks have been pretty solid: 49/63 for 602 yards and 6 touchdowns through the air and 15 carries for 104 yards and another touchdown on the ground, all without a turnover.

8 – DeShaun Lee appears to have secured his spot at Right Corner and had a great game against Wisconsin with 3 Solo tackles, a pick and a PBU. He took every meaningful snap at the RCB spot and had the highest PFF grade of any Iowa DB (77.3 overall).

17 – UCLA’s offense hasn’t had many bright spots this season, but Logan Loya is one of them. He is No. 3 on the team in catches and leads the team in TDs (with 3). Looking at UCLA’s offensive stats is a lot like looking at Iowa’s offensive stats from a year ago.

As always, GO HAWKS!!!