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How do exit polls work? Understanding the voter data collection system
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How do exit polls work? Understanding the voter data collection system

On Election Day, as votes are counted and news organizations wait for results and race projections to report, exit polls are a crucial tool for getting an early look at who is voting and what motivates their choices.

An exit poll is a survey of voters as they leave (or leave) their voting location. It is the only national survey of known voters in the country. It allows news organizations, researchers and voters to understand what’s happening during an election as results roll in.

Here’s how exit polls work, where they’ll be conducted, and how NBC News will use exit poll results on election night and the days after.

Who conducts the exit poll?

Since 2003, Edison Research, a company that specializes in collecting election data, has conducted exit polls on behalf of the National Election Pool. The NEP is a consortium of media networks – ABC, CBS, CNN and NBC News – that pools resources for a single collective vote counting and exit poll operation. NBC News independently analyzes and reports the results of the exit polls.

Read more election explainers from the NBC News Decision Desk

What questions are asked?

The exit poll asks voters which candidates they supported for president and in other races. But usually a number of other attitudinal and issue-related questions are also included, such as: “What is the most important issue in your vote?” The other important part of an exit poll is asking about a voter’s demographics, such as age, gender, race and education. These types of questions help illustrate how different groups voted and what was important to them, and they are also used to weight the exit poll – that is, to ensure that the exit poll captures the demographic makeup of the electorate and the election. reflects. results.

Members of each news organization in the NEP jointly determine which states the exit polls will be conducted in (in addition to the national exit poll survey), and they work together to decide which questions will be included in the national and state questionnaires. The exit poll questionnaires contain approximately 25 questions and take approximately 5 minutes to complete.

How are exit polls conducted?

The exit poll is then conducted in a random sample of selected polling places across the country and in states with their own exit polls (more on that later). At least one interviewer is assigned to each polling station on election day. This year, interviewers will be stationed at 600 polling stations across the country, with each following local rules on where they can stand in relation to the polling place. The interview is self-administered, which means that the respondent completes the survey themselves. The interviewers then call in their results throughout the day, and the results are reported to news organizations.

What about the states’ exit polls?

In addition to a national exit poll, which involves voters from across the country, there are exit polls specific to states that are critical to winning the presidency or that include important elections, such as the Senate or governor. This year, NBC News will cover state exit polls in Arizona, Georgia, Florida, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas and Wisconsin. The exit poll will be held at 40 polling locations in each state.

How does the exit poll reflect the growing percentage of people voting early or by mail?

The exit poll will supplement in-person interviews on Election Day by contacting early voters through a telephone survey of people on voter rolls in all 50 states, and by collecting interviews during early in-person voting periods.

This year, the exit poll is conducting interviews at early in-person voting locations in Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada and Ohio. All voters in a given state, regardless of whether they vote early or on Election Day, are asked the same questions.

Are exit polls anonymous?

Yes. Voters are personally handed a piece of paper and a pencil to fill out a paper questionnaire and answer anonymously. When they are done, they put their folded questionnaire in a box, just like when voting. During telephone interviews, no personal data of the interviewed voter is retained.

How many people are interviewed?

The national exit poll will include approximately 20,000 interviews in total, including in-person interviews on Election Day, in-person interviews during early voting and via telephone to reach other early voters, including those who cast their ballots by mail. For each state exit poll in Arizona, Georgia, Florida, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas and Wisconsin, there will be sample sizes of 1,500 to 2,500 respondents per state.

How do we use exit polls?

The NBC News Decision Desk uses some exit poll data to help project election results. However, the exit poll is mainly used as a reporting tool on election night.

The data gives viewers and readers insight into what issues motivate voters, how they feel about the country and who they are. It’s the nation’s first look at what the electorate looks like and how voters feel about the election, the candidates and their choices.

What data do news organizations report and when?

Participants in the NEP will not report exit poll results before 5:00 PM ET on Election Day, and no exit poll results that could be indicative of the outcome of a race will be reported until all polling places are scheduled to close. As election night progresses and interviewers on the ground announce more exit poll results, the data is updated and reweighted in real time.