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    • How do the Iowa Poll results compare to Iowa’s election results?
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    How do the Iowa Poll results compare to Iowa’s election results?

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    Voter preference polls are not intended to predict victory. They are snapshots that help news outlets and the general public better understand what voters are likely thinking and what issues are important to them at that moment.

    But many look to polls taken shortly before the election to get a better idea of ​​how Election Day might go.

    In Iowa, The Des Moines Register has been conducting the Iowa Poll since 1943, when poll workers first spread across the state to interview Iowans in their homes. Since 1987, J. Ann Selzer has run the Iowa Poll, first as a registered employee and since 1997 on a contract basis with her firm Selzer & Co.

    2024 Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris surpasses Donald Trump to take the lead near Election Day. Here’s how

    Whenever an Iowa poll is released, readers often wonder how closely previous polls tracked the final election results. Here’s a look at the polls in Iowa leading up to the US presidential elections over the past two decades.

    2020: The latest Iowa poll shows Donald Trump with a lead over Joe Biden

    The final Des Moines Register/Mediacom Poll of 2020 was conducted October 26-29, 2020, just days before the November 3, 2020 election. The results showed then-President Donald Trump leading in the state, 48% versus Joe Biden’s 41%.

    The seven-point lead was a shift from a September 2020 Iowa poll that showed the race tied in the state.

    It closely matched the final results when Trump won Iowa by 8 points (53% to 45%).

    More: Could Iowa return to a presidential swing state? What the new Iowa Poll shows

    2016: The latest Iowa poll shows Donald Trump beating Hillary Clinton

    After voting for President Barack Obama in back-to-back elections, Iowa saw heavy campaigning from both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton in 2016.

    The latest Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll showed Trump with a seven-point lead over Clinton (46% to 39%). The poll was conducted from November 1 to 4, 2016, ahead of the November 8, 2016 elections.

    It wasn’t until 1:30 a.m. the next day that the Associated Press called the race for Trump. Trump finished with a 9.4 point lead over Clinton (51.1% to 41.7%).

    More: How is the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll conducted? We answer your most important questions.

    2012: In the latest Iowa poll, Barack Obama has a lead over Mitt Romney

    President Barack Obama faced challenger Mitt Romney in 2012.

    In the latest Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll, Obama had a 5-point lead over Romney (47% to 42%).

    On election night, Obama gave the state a 6-point lead (52% to 46%).

    2008: Barack Obama has a dominant lead over John McCain in the final Iowa Poll

    Iowa helped launch Barack Obama as a presidential candidate when he won the 2008 Iowa Caucuses.

    Heading into Election Day, the latest poll in Iowa looked like Obama could easily carry the state over challenger John McCain. The poll showed him with a 17-point lead (54% vs. 37%).

    When the polls closed, Obama won the state by a smaller margin: 10 points. He earned 54% of the vote, but McCain got 44%.

    2004: John Kerry takes over President George W. Bush

    Iowa was seen as a battleground in 2004 after President George W. Bush was dogged by low job approval ratings. Iowa did not vote for Bush in 2000, opting instead for former Vice President Al Gore.

    The latest poll in Iowa showed U.S. Senator John Kerry, the Democratic challenger, with a 5-point lead (48% to 43%).

    On election night, Bush won a narrow victory, receiving 49.9% of the vote, compared to Kerry’s 49.2%. Bush was the first Republican to win the state since Ronald Reagan in 1984.

    Brian Smith is the Register’s audience growth strategist. Reach him at [email protected] or 515-284-8214.

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