Hurricane Francine is intensifying in the Gulf of Mexico ahead of a landfall in Louisiana later Wednesday. Dangerous storm surge, flooding, destructive winds and tornadoes are expected to batter Louisiana and other parts of the Gulf Coast and the South.

This is the latest status of this system: Francine is located about 245 miles southwest of Morgan City, Louisiana, and is moving northeast. Maximum sustained winds were 90 mph at 4 a.m. CDT, making Francine a strong Category 1 hurricane.

Rain bands are wrapping around parts of the northern Gulf Coast, but the core of Francine’s heaviest rain and strongest winds still lurk offshore. Expect conditions to deteriorate in Louisiana as the day progresses.

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Where warnings and supervision are in effect: A hurricane warning is in effect along the Louisiana coast from Cameron to Grand Isle. Areas from Cameron, Louisiana, to the Mississippi-Alabama border are under a storm surge warning. This means that hurricane conditions (winds in excess of 74 mph) and life-threatening storm surges are expected in these areas on Wednesday.

Tropical storm warnings cover much of the rest of the northern Gulf Coast, from the southwestern Louisiana coast to the Alabama-Florida border. The New Orleans metropolitan area is under a tropical storm warning, meaning sustained winds of at least 39 to 73 mph are expected later today and tonight.

A hurricane warning is also in effect for the New Orleans metropolitan area, including Lakes Pontchartrain and Maurepas. This means hurricane conditions are possible this afternoon and tonight.

The map below shows where hurricane and tropical storm warnings and/or advisories are currently in effect.

Predicted route and intensity: Francine is expected to make landfall in the hurricane warning area on the central coast of Louisiana late Wednesday afternoon or evening. Impacts will be known well in advance.

The National Hurricane Center predicts Francine will have Category 2 winds upon landfall.

After landfall, Francine will spread rainfall and strong winds across eastern Louisiana and parts of Mississippi through Wednesday night. Rainfall from Francine and its remnants will affect other parts of the Southeast as far north as the lower Ohio and Tennessee valleys by late this week.

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Possible consequences

Storm surge

A life-threatening storm surge will inundate low-lying areas along the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama.

According to the National Hurricane Center, peak flooding could reach 5 to 10 feet in parts of southern Louisiana, including Vermilion Bay, if the storm surge arrives at high tide. Flooding is also expected along the shores of lakes Pontchartrain and Maurepas, where flooding could reach 3 to 6 feet.

This surge of water is expected to arrive within a few hours on either side of landfall later Wednesday. However, some parts of the Gulf Coast down to Mobile Bay could see at least some coastal flooding that will last into Thursday morning.

If you are ordered to evacuate, follow the advice of local authorities.

Damaging winds

These winds can blow down numerous trees and knock out power. Power outages could last for days after the storm passes in this area.

Tropical storm force winds are likely in other parts of eastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and southern Alabama, including New Orleans and Baton Rouge, Louisiana; Biloxi, Mississippi; and Mobile, Alabama. Power outages and some downed trees are expected in these areas.

Power outages are possible in areas as far north as central Mississippi, western Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle.

Floods Rain

The heaviest rainfall from Francine is expected in southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle through Thursday evening.

Total rainfall in these areas could be 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts up to 12 inches. New Orleans and Baton Rouge, Louisiana; Biloxi and Jackson, Mississippi; and Mobile, Alabama, are among the cities where flood warnings have been issued due to this heavy rainfall threat.

Locally heavy rainfall from Francine’s remnants will affect parts of the Southeast as far north as the lower Ohio and Tennessee valleys through the weekend. At least some localized flooding is possible in these areas.

That’s because Francine is likely to get stuck in the Mid-Mississippi Valley as part of a “Rex Block.” This is a form of atmospheric blockage that occurs when a high pressure area and a low pressure area (in this case, Francine) get too close to each other.

This blocking pattern will leave Francine’s remnants without a steering mechanism, resulting in an unstable, squall-like pattern that will persist in the Southeast for days.

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Possible tornadoes

Tropical cyclones that move over land often produce at least a few tornadoes near and inland from where they pass the coast.

An isolated tornado threat from this system could develop Wednesday or Wednesday night across southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle.

The threat of an isolated tornado may persist Thursday across parts of Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, western Georgia and possibly adjacent parts of northeastern Mississippi and southcentral Tennessee.

Francine’s Summary So Far

​Francine formed as a tropical storm Monday morning, becoming the first Atlantic storm since Ernesto to reach the North Atlantic on August 20.

According to hurricane expert Michael Lowry of WPLG-TV, it has been 30 years since the Atlantic region saw no active tropical cyclones during the first full week of September.

And Phil Klotzbach, a tropical scientist at Colorado State University, noted that the last time no storms formed in the Atlantic basin between August 13 and September 8 was in 1968.

According to the National Weather Service, flooding was reported in known trouble spots in Cameron County, Texas, on Tuesday morning. Some locations received 7 to 8 inches of rain before Francine moved out of the Rio Grande Valley.

Minor flooding was again reported along parts of the South Texas coast Monday night into Tuesday.