Illinois (7-3) jumped out to a 4-0 start with quality wins over Kansas and Nebraska before running into a stout Penn State defense that held the Illini to 34 rushing yards and 219 total yards in the game. They narrowly escaped with a 50-49 victory over 1-9 Purdue (25% win expectancy) and defeated an attack-averse Michigan team before being destroyed by Oregon 38-9 and losing a one-score game to Minnesota. The Illini have been fairly projectable thus far, losing to every team they’ve faced with a winning record and beating every program that’s currently .500 or worse. Their offense is built around a conservative passing attack that sacrifices chunk plays (107th in pass explosiveness) in favor of consistency (34th in pass success rate) and safety, with Illinois ranking second in FBS with a 1.0% interception rate . The biggest problem on D is a dismal defense that ranks 130th in rushing success rate and 134th in stuff percentage. Fortunately, their secondary has held up well, ranking 27th in yards per pass play allowed while limiting opponents to just 5.4 yards per completion (102nd).

The Scarlet Knights (6-4) stormed through their early season schedule with notable wins over @Virginia Tech and Washington, starting with a 4-0 record. Since then, however, Rutgers dropped one-score decisions to @Nebraska and UCLA and was crushed by USC and Wisconsin to even their record at 4-4. A much-needed Week 10 Bye helped RU recalibrate as they defeated Minnesota and @Maryland to gain bowl eligibility over the past two weeks. Offensively, RB Kyle Monangai leads a decent run game that ranks 16th in YAC and 54th in EPA/rush, but struggles to make big plays and ranks 103rd in yards per successful rush. Conversely, the Scarlet Knights allow a brutal success rate of 50.6% (126th in FBS) while ranking 125th in EPA/rush allowed. Despite a porous front line, Rutgers still ranks 32nd on defense in FBS, according to SP+.

NBC Sports has the latest information and analysis you need, including how to tune in for kickoff, odds from BetMGM, player news and updates, and of course our predictions and best bets for the game from our staff of experts.

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Game details and how to watch Illinois at Rutgers

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· Date: Saturday November 23, 2024
· Time: 12:00 PM EST
· Location: SHI Stadium
· City: Piscataway, NJ
· TV/streaming: Peacock

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Game odds for Illinois at Rutgers

The latest odds from Friday morning:

• Moneyline: Illinois (-115), Rutgers (-105)
• Spread: Fighting Illini -1
• Top/Bottom: 47.5 points

This game started with Rutgers slightly favored at -1, but has since moved to Illinois -1, with a few books making the jump to -1.5. The moneyline hasn’t changed noticeably from each team’s initial drop of -110, while the game total of 47.5 points has increased slightly from an opening of 47.

NBC Sportsbook Best Bet

NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:

“I think Illinois is balanced enough on each side of the ball to exploit Rutgers’ defensive weakness. The Illini rarely turn the ball over and do an excellent job of limiting big plays, so I’m backing Illinois on the moneyline to beat the Scarlet Knights on the road.

Listen to the Bet the Edge podcast as hosts, Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick provide listeners with sharp, actionable insight, market analysis and statistics to help bettors gain more information before placing their bets.

BetMGM College Football Insights: Odds to Make the Playoffs

Line Movement (open until now)

• Indiana +15,000 to -500
• Tennessee +180 to -135
• Colorado +2000 to -120

Highest ticket%

• Tennessee 5.0%
• Iowa 4.8%
• Utah 4.8%

Highest Handle%

• Texas 10.1%
• Indiana 6.4%
• Alabama 5.7%

Greatest liability

Quarterback matchup for Illinois at Rutgers

• Illinois: QB Luke Altymer spent his first two seasons at Ole Miss until it became clear that Jaxson Dart was HC Lane Kiffin’s preferred choice. He transferred to Illinois in 2023 and was named the starter for the season opener. Dart has stepped up this year, throwing for 2,132 yards, 7.5 YPA (6.9 last year) and a rock-solid 18-to-3 ratio (13-to-10 LY). Altmyer’s 75.1 PFF grade ranks 56th out of 92 qualifying signal callers, which is a mark on par with notable P5 QBs like Noah Fifita, Nico Iamaleava and Brendan Sorsby. Illinois’ passing attack ranks 34th in success rate (45.3%) and 28th in yards per completion (6.5) under Altmyer, offsetting a mediocre run game that ranks 89th in success rate.

• Rutgers: HC Greg Schiano moved on from a dismal 2023, starting QB Gavin Wimsatt in favor of a trade for former Minnesota quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis. The change of scenery worked wonders for Kaliakmanis, who has improved his yards per attempt from 6.2 to 7.0 and lowered his pressure-to-sack percentage from 20.5% to 14.2%. To put it in perspective, Kaliakmanis increased his PFF passing grade from 58.2 to 77.9, which ranks 42nd out of 92 FBS qualifiers. RU can pull off a rare eight-win season if they can beat @Rutgers and @Northwestern in their final two regular season games.

Trends and recent statistics

• Luke Altmyer (ILL) has thrown for first downs on 44% of his pass attempts on third down and 10+ yards to go this season – 3rd best among FBS Quarterbacks; Miami QB Cam Ward leads the nation with a third-and-10+ conversion rate of 47.6%.
• Illinois has tackled opponents for a loss on just 37 of 334 rushing attempts (11% TFL%) this season – 11th-worst in FBS; Ole Miss leads the nation with a TFL percentage of 26.5%.
• RU is tackling opponents for a loss on 13.3% of the rush attempts they have faced, 56th out of 67 Power Four teams. They allow an average of 7.3 yards and an 85% conversion rate on third-and-short situations.
• Rutgers Skill Players have completed just 168 of 297 passes this season, with their 56.6% catch rate ranking as the third-worst mark among Power Conference Teams. Florida State ranks last with a 51.4% catch rate (148 recs on 288 targets).

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