• Iran has threatened to attack Saudi oil sites if the Gulf state supports an Israeli attack.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi conveyed the message to Saudi officials, according to Reuters.
• Regional chaos threatens to disrupt the truce between the rivals.

The fragile truce between long-time regional rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia could fall apart if Gulf states allow Israel to use their airspace to attack Iran.

Iranian sources told Reuters that when Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi recently traveled to Riyadh, he warned Saudi officials that Iran would respond if it allowed Israel to use its airspace for attacks on the Islamic Republic.

He reportedly told officials that Iranian-backed militias in Iraq or the Houthi militia in Yemen could be used against Saudi Arabia.

Ali Shihabi, a Saudi analyst close to the Saudi royal court, told Reuters: “The Iranians have stated: ‘If the Gulf states open their airspace to Israel, it would be an act of war.'”

Separately, The Wall Street Journal, citing Arab officials, reported that Iran has warned through secret channels that it could target Gulf states and U.S. allies in the Middle East more broadly if their territory or airspace is used by Israel to target Iran to fall.

It named Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, all of which host US military bases, as countries that Iran has threatened with reprisals.

The reports come at a time when tensions in the region are rapidly escalating.

Israel has escalated attacks on the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia in Lebanon in recent weeks, and Iran retaliated by launching a rocket attack on Israel on October 1.

Israeli leaders have vowed to respond to the Iranian attack, with some, including former Prime Minister Naftali Bennet, calling on Israel to target Iran’s nuclear program. Other options include an attack on Iranian oil facilities.

Such an attack could lead to an Iranian attack on the Gulf states that it claims enabled the attack, and on Israeli civilian infrastructure.

Arab sources told Reuters they had lobbied the US to prevent Israel from attacking Iranian oil facilities, and the newspaper reported that an Israeli attack using their airspace was off the table.

Israel could still attack Iran via routes over Syria or Iraq, but the cooperation of US forces in the Gulf states is problematic.

An Iranian attack would likely end the 2023 truce China brokered between Iran and Saudi Arabia, during which the old rivals established diplomatic contacts.

For decades, the states waged a proxy war against each other, most recently in Yemen, where Iran supported Houthi rebels and Saudi Arabia waged a campaign in support of government forces in the country’s civil war.

Amid the hostilities, Iran orchestrated attacks on Saudi oil facilities in the east of the country in 2019.

Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states had formed a loosely aligned bloc, backed by the US, to contain Iranian regional influence, an arrangement the US has sought to strengthen in recent years.

One of the key agreements underlying the ceasefire was a deal by Iran to stop supporting Houthi militants in attacks on Saudi Arabia, while the Saudis agreed to stop supporting Sunni militants in Iran .

The ceasefire, analysts say, is partly a reflection of Saudi ruler Mohammed bin Salman’s desire to stabilize the region and transform the Saudi economy as part of his Vision 2030 project.

Despite the flare-up of violence between Israel and Iran in the aftermath of the October 7, 2023 terrorist attacks by the Iranian-sponsored militia Hamas, the ceasefire between Saudi Arabia and Iran has largely been maintained.

This is despite reports that Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states may have helped Israel and its allies shoot down Iranian missiles in an earlier attack on Israel in April.

In a recent essay for the European Council on Foreign Relations, analysts emphasized that diplomatic cooperation between Iran and Saudi Arabia could be essential to resolving escalating regional tensions.

“While it did not lead to a resolution of the conflict, this detente did help contain the regional escalation,” they noted.

Any attack on Saudi oil facilities could send prices rising sharply. The kingdom is the world’s largest exporter of crude oil and plays an important role as the de facto leader of the oil industry

OPEC, the cartel of oil producing countries.

The price of Brent crude oil has risen 12% over the past month to just under $79 a barrel on Friday. However, it remains significantly lower than the peak that followed Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, when prices rose above $110 per barrel.