By Roberto Cetera

While media attention focused on Lebanon and the confrontation with Iran, the Israeli army has resumed heavy bombing of the northern Gaza Strip in recent days, causing numerous civilian casualties. This grave situation also raises concerns about the safety of the Christian community seeking refuge in the parish of the Holy Family, now just a few kilometers away from advancing Israeli forces.

Some observers believe this is the beginning of the “Generals Plan” – a siege and forced evacuation strategy for northern Gaza, outlined by former Israeli general Giora Eiland in an interview with The times of Israel already in April last year.

The plan was presented by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to the parliamentary Committee on Foreign Affairs and Defense last September.

L’Osservatore Romano spoke to Professor Idan Landau from Tel Aviv University, who has studied the issue and written about it in several Israeli publications.

Professor Landau, could you briefly explain what the “Generals’ Plan” entails?

The ‘Plan of the Generals’ was announced last September. The aim is to rid northern Gaza of its approximately 300,000 residents – about a third of Gaza’s total population. In the first phase, the Israeli army would inform everyone in the area that they have one week to evacuate south through two humanitarian corridors. In the second phase, after this week, the entire area would be declared a ‘closed military zone’. Anyone left would be considered an enemy combatant and killed unless he surrendered. A total siege would then be imposed on the entire area, further isolating it and exacerbating the food and health crisis.

Professor General Eiland’s proposed plan was presented to the government last April and has not yet been fully approved. Why do you think it is being implemented now? What ongoing military actions would prove this?

My impression is that the Israeli army, despite official denials, is implementing a version quite close to the original plan. Soldiers on the ground confirmed this to journalists. Many civilians have been killed in recent days and the siege of northern Gaza continues. Dozens of witnesses from the towns of Jabalia, Beit Hanoun and Beit Lahia report unprecedented destruction, entire neighborhoods razed to the ground and attacks on shelters to flush out those seeking protection. Massacres occur every day: on October 29, the Israeli air force heavily bombed densely populated buildings in Beit Lahia, killing 250 people, half of whom are still buried under the rubble. I don’t think there is any doubt that the plan has become operational. Parallel to the destruction, the IDF is driving displaced people south. However, many resist crossing the Netzarim corridor for fear they may never return.

How many people are affected by the forced evacuation plan?

Before October 5, 2024 – the estimated start date of the operation – between 300,000 and 400,000 people lived in the enclave. Now there are about 100,000 left. However, the IDF is determined not to leave anyone behind. It is very clear that all this has nothing to do with the stated intention to capture the remaining Hamas leaders and destroy their bases; international humanitarian law does not permit such military operations.

The plan would entail not only military pressure but also the suspension of food, fuel, energy and water supplies. Wouldn’t this also be contrary to international humanitarian law?

Please allow me to object to your use of conditional tense. It is not ‘would be involved’ but ‘concerns’; not ‘would conflict’, but ‘is conflicting’. No food or water has entered northern Gaza for a month, with only limited supplies allowed to Kamal Adwan Hospital. Every day, all United Nations agencies and humanitarian organizations report that the humanitarian situation is now catastrophic. I believe there can be no doubt about the nature of this operation in terms of international humanitarian law. Therefore, the Israeli government tends to downplay its true scope.

So far, the Israeli government has not expressed a clear or definitive position on Gaza’s future. Do you think this operation creates a future settlement, at least for North Gaza?

Yes. I think the ultimate goal is the resettlement of Israeli settlers – a return after the 2005 withdrawal ordered by then Prime Minister Sharon. The far-right members of Netanyahu’s coalition make no secret of this, starting with Finance Minister Smotrich. This is obviously a project that will be carried out in phases. The continued presence of military personnel within Gaza’s perimeter and so-called “security zones” would initially create small settlements, justified as in need of military control, and then grow into larger communities such as those in the West Bank. However, I don’t think such a resettlement south of the Netzarim corridor could work, because two million Palestinians crammed into that open-air ghetto have nowhere else to go. Over time, they will inevitably become a ticking time bomb of poverty, disease and dangerous, rising extremism.