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Latest New York Times poll on swing states released: See results

Vaseline November 4, 2024

The latest polls from The New York Times and Siena College released Sunday show Vice President Kamala Harris appears to have a slight lead in enough states to win the Electoral College.

In the polls, Harris led in Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Georgia. Former President Donald Trump and Harris were tied in Pennsylvania and Michigan, while Trump led in Arizona, although each result was within the margin of error. Harris would have at least 274 electoral votes, enough to capture the White House, if those results were realized after Election Day.

The narrow margin is in stark contrast to a Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll released late Saturday that showed Harris up 3% in Iowa, a state considered safe for Trump.

The polls were conducted among likely voters between October 24 and November. 2 and surveyed 7,879 likely voters in battleground states with a margin of error of ±3.5% in each state.

Latest New York Times/Siena College State Poll

Arizona

The Times had Trump with a 49%-45% lead over Harris in the Copper State.

A proposal to enshrine the right to abortion up to the point at which the fetus is viable saw 54% of respondents in favor and 39% against it.

In the state Senate race, Democrat Ruben Gallego has a five-point lead over Republican Kari Lake, with the race estimated at 50%-45%.

According to the poll, Arizona is the only state where Trump has a lead with people who have already cast a vote. Trump leads among Arizonans who have already voted 50%-46%.

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Georgia

The Times found that Harris leads 48% to Trump’s 47% in the Peach State.

The candidates were tied at 46% when third-party candidates were included.

Three percent of respondents in the state told the Times they made their decision in the “last few days.”

The poll found that 57% of people in the state said the federal response to “recent hurricanes” was fair or poor.

Michigan

Candidates were tied at 47% in Michigan, the Times found. The race remains tied, albeit at 45%, when third-party candidates are included.

The survey found that the Great Lakes state was one of two states where Trump is expected to exceed his 2020 vote share, with the other state being Arizona.

Democrat Elissa Slotkin leads Republican challenger Mike Rodgers 48%-46% in the state’s Senate race.

Nevada

Harris has the largest lead in Nevada polls, with a 49%-46% lead over Trump. When third-party candidates are included, the lead shrinks to 48%-46%.

A voting proposal to enshrine abortion rights in the Constitution of the Silver State receives 63% support in the poll.

Both candidates’ favorability ratings were underwater in the state, with Trump’s approval rating at -7% and Harris at -3%.

North Carolina

Harris led Trump in the North Carolina Times poll 48%-46%.

Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein leads Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson by 17% in the state’s race for governor. The race, marred by discoveries of Robinson’s history of lewd and racist statements online, is part of the reason the state is in play for Democrats.

A majority of respondents, 52%, rated the federal response to Hurricane Helene as fair or poor, and 3% said it would have at least some impact on their ability to vote.

Pennsylvania

According to the poll, Trump and Harris are tied at 48% in the Keystone State. This marks a four-point swing toward Trump in the state.

Incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey leads his race over Republican Dave McCormick by 5%, down from 9% in the Times’ previous poll on the race in September.

The poll showed that 55% of respondents would definitely vote and that 21% had already voted.

Wisconsin

Harris leads Trump in Wisconsin 49%-47%, according to the poll.

The Times found that abortion was almost as important to voters in the Badger State as it was to the economy.

Incumbent Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin has a four-point lead over Republican challenger Eric Hovde in the poll.

Things to keep in mind when voting

The margin of error describes how accurately we can count on the research results being representative of the entire population.

When a candidate’s lead is “within” the margin of error, it is considered a “statistical tie,” according to the Pew Research Center.

Pew also found that the majority of pollsters have changed their methods since the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, significantly underestimating Trump’s performance.

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Latest New York Times poll on swing states released: See results