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Latest research on Trump vs. Harris

Vaseline November 5, 2024

As polls open across the United States, anyone can win the race for the White House, based on the latest set of national polls.

Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris remain locked in an extraordinarily close battle for the presidency after each candidate spent the final hours of their campaigns trying to win over voters in key swing states. As Election Day arrives, Americans from coast to coast will be making their voices heard at the polls.

Informing the choices of many voters will likely be their views on who can best handle the economy, immigration, abortion and threats to democracy — key issues that have been at the top of Americans’ minds in poll after poll.

Here’s what you need to know about the latest national polls as Americans cast their ballots:

Harris has a narrow lead over Trump in the Ipsos poll

Vice President Harris leads former President Trump by 2 percentage points in the latest Ipsos Core Political poll released Monday.

The poll of 1,242 adults showed Harris leading Trump 50%-48% as the election finish line approached. The poll, conducted from Friday to Sunday, had a margin of error of three percentage points.

On these issues, 42% of respondents prefer former President Donald Trump’s approach to the economy and foreign conflicts, while 45% say he can best handle the immigration problem. Meanwhile, 42% of voters surveyed prefer Harris’ approach to health care, while 39% say she can best handle political extremism or threats to democracy.

While most Americans, 57%, say they disapprove of President Joe Biden’s handling of his job, only 48% say the same about Vice President Harris. And when it comes to favorability, slightly more Americans (45%) say they have an overall favorable view of Harris than Trump (42%). Harris’ net favorability (-5%) is also higher than Trump’s net favorability (-12%). %) among all Americans.

Trump has a narrow lead over Harris in the latest TIPP poll

The race is even tighter in the latest TIPP Tracking Poll released Tuesday, which showed Trump with just a 0.3-point lead over Harris.

The poll of 1,863 likely voters showed Trump leading Harris 48.6% to 48.3%. The survey, conducted online from Saturday to Monday, has a margin of error of 2.3 points.

“Late-deciding voters often lean toward the challenger over the incumbent, potentially giving Trump a lead on the final day, a common tendency among undecided voters who harbor doubts about the incumbent administration,” the poll said.

Harris leads Trump in the latest Marist/PBS/NPR national poll

Harris has a four-point lead over Trump in the latest national poll released by Marist on Monday.

The survey of 1,297 likely voters, sponsored by NPR and PBS, found that 51% of respondents supported Harris, while 47% supported Trump. The remaining 2% supported a third-party candidate. The result is outside the poll’s margin of error of ±3.5 percentage points.

The poll showed Harris significantly narrowing Trump’s lead over men nationally. Trump still leads with men in the poll 51%-47%, but in the previous version of the poll Trump was ahead by 16 points. Harris leads among women in the poll 55%-45%, although her previous lead was 18 points.

“Harris is well positioned to secure the popular vote for president, but must navigate a narrow path to reach 270 in the Electoral College,” said Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, in the poll release. . “Former President Trump’s candidacy is being held back by his high negative ratings among likely voters.”

Harris and Trump are deadlocked in the Forbes/HarrisX poll

Harris and Trump are statistically tied in the latest Forbes/HarrisX national poll released late Monday.

Harris has a razor-thin 49%-48% lead over Trump among the 4,520 registered voters surveyed, with 3% favoring third-party candidates. When respondents were asked to choose only Between Harris and Trump, the vice president’s lead grew slightly to 49%-47%, with 4% still undecided.

The survey was posted online between October 30 and November 1 and has a margin of error of ±1%.

“Price rises/inflation” was one of the top issues for respondents, with 36% of respondents saying it was top of the agenda. Immigration and the economy followed with 32% and 31% of respondents respectively, topping their list. Abortion came in fourth as the most important issue, with 16% of respondents saying it was one of their top issues.

“The race tomorrow will come down to turnout, especially for Trump,” Dritan Nesho, CEO and principal researcher at HarrisX, an analytics firm with no ties to Kamala Harris, told Forbes. “Trump has historically outperformed the polls in both 2016 and 2020, thanks to his ability to turn out low-propensity voters and win over voters who make last-minute decisions.”

Things to keep in mind when voting

The margin of error describes how accurately we can count on the research results being representative of the entire population.

When a candidate’s lead is “within” the margin of error, it is considered a “statistical tie,” according to the Pew Research Center.

Pew also found that the majority of pollsters have changed their methods since the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, significantly underestimating Trump’s performance.