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    • Maps show what to expect
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    Maps show what to expect

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    Kentucky’s winter could be wetter and milder this year if La Niña conditions persist, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The Climate Prediction Center updated their winter outlook last month, giving people an idea of ​​how cold and wet conditions could be in January, February and March 2025.

    The US has a 60% chance that La Niña will occur from now through November and continue from January through March 2025. Here’s what that means for Kentucky.

    What is La Niña?

    La Niña is a natural climate pattern in which ocean seawater cools in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, according to the National Weather Service. It normally occurs every 3-5 years and can have a significant impact on the weather, such as worsening the Atlantic hurricane season.

    What are the NOAA forecasts for Kentucky this winter?

    Kentucky is looking a little wetter this year. Forecasters predict the state will trend toward above-normal precipitation. Areas west of Jackson and Lexington have a 40-50% chance of above average precipitation. Eastern Kentucky – places like Cumberland, Whitesburg and Pikesville – have a 30-40% chance of more precipitation this winter.

    Data maintained by NWS shows that the average total precipitation from January through March in Louisville was equal to 4.7 inches of precipitation.

    How cold will Kentucky get this winter? This is what NOAA says…

    Kentucky is trending toward above-average temperatures during the first three months of 2025, according to a seasonal outlook map released by NOAA. The eastern half of Kentucky has a 50-60% chance of temperatures above normal.

    The average daily high in Louisville, according to NWS at Louisville Muhammad Ali International Airport, is 36 in January; 40 in February; and 48 in March. Lows during those same three months average in the 20s to 30s.

    According to NWS, Kentucky is following a warming trend favored across the U.S., partly due to La Niña’s reduced sea surface temperatures. The card is valid from January to March 2025.

    What do the farmers’ almanacs predict for Kentucky winter?

    The Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts a cold and snowy winter for Kentuckians – certainly colder than much of the country.

    “This winter, temperatures will rise and snow will fall across most of the United States,” Carol Connare, editor-in-chief of the Almanac, said online, predicting an overall “moderate, quiet winter.” The Almanac claims that heavy snowstorms will affect central and southern Appalachia, the Rockies and parts of the western Ohio Valley.

    Meanwhile, the Farmer’s Almanac predicts that the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Midwest regions (Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin) can expect a “big freeze” in January, with “very, very cold conditions” expected.

    Kentuckians may want to keep in mind that the almanacs’ long-term forecasts are sometimes little better than a coin flip. A study cited by Popular Mechanics reported that the Farmer’s Almanac was right about 52% of the time.

    From the Archives: See photos of last fall foliage in Kentucky

    John Tufts covers trending news for IndyStar and Midwest Connect. Send him a news tip at [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter at JTuftsReports.

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