Photo credit: Joan M. Flake

West side

Today: Sunny and airy. Highs 80 to 86. East wind 10 to 30 mph.

This evening: Partly cloudy. After midnight there is a 20 percent chance of showers. Low 68 to 75. Northeast wind 10 to 25 mph.

Monday: Mostly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers. Highs 80 to 86. Northeast wind around 10 mph, turning west in the afternoon.

South side

Today: Sunny and airy. Highs around 89. Northerly winds up to 20 mph, shifting northeast at 6 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

This evening: Usually clear. Low 67 to 76. North wind around 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Monday: Mostly sunny. A 20 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs around 88. North wind around 10 mph turning west in the afternoon.

North Coast

Today: Windy. Partly sunny with a chance of showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with a slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 84 near shore to about 68 near 5,000 feet. Winds from the east at 30 km/h, increasing to 10 to 20 km/h in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

This evening: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers in the evening, chance of showers after midnight. Lows around 72 near the coast to around 53 near 5,000 feet. Wind from the east 10 to 15 km/hour. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Partly sunny with a chance of showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with a slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 84 near shore to about 68 near 5,000 feet. Wind from the east 10 to 15 km/hour. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny and airy. Highs 81 to 89. Northeast wind 10 to 25 mph.

This evening: Partly cloudy. Low 67 to 72. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph.

Monday: Mostly sunny. A 20 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 89. North wind around 10 mph.

Upland

Today: Sunny and airy. Highs around 65 at the visitor center to around 62 at the summit. Winds from the east at 30 km/h, increasing to 10 to 20 km/h in the afternoon.

This evening: Partly cloudy. Windy. Low 45 to 55. Southeast wind 10 to 30 mph.

Monday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs around 64 at the visitor center to around 60 at the summit. Southeasterly wind 10 to 15 km/hour.

East Maui

Today: Windy. Partly sunny with a chance of showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with a slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 84 near shore to about 68 near 5,000 feet. Winds from the east at 30 km/h, increasing to 10 to 20 km/h in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

This evening: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers in the evening, chance of showers after midnight. Lows around 72 near the coast to around 53 near 5,000 feet. Wind from the east 10 to 15 km/hour. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Partly sunny with a chance of showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with a slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 84 near shore to about 68 near 5,000 feet. Wind from the east 10 to 15 km/hour. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai Town

Today: Sunny and airy. Highs 74 to 81. Northeast wind up to 20 mph.

This evening: Partly cloudy. Low around 66. Northeast wind up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Monday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 81. East wind up to 10 mph, shifting southeast around 6 mph in the afternoon.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny and airy. 20 percent chance of showers in the morning. Highs 71 to 90. East wind 10 to 30 mph.

This evening: Partly cloudy. Low 59 to 75. East wind 10 to 25 mph.

Monday: Sunny. Highs 71 to 90. East wind around 10 mph in the morning becoming light.

Synopsis

The locally persistent trade winds will last all night and bring only a few showers, especially in the windward areas. Winds will decrease on Monday and remain light for the rest of the week. The light winds will combine with a ridge up to support a mostly dry weather pattern. A wetter regime may develop next weekend.

Discussion

The locally breezy ENE trade winds will persist through this evening, causing only a few showers, especially in the windward areas. Winds will decrease on Monday and remain light for the rest of the week. The light winds will combine with a ridge up to support a mostly dry weather pattern. Long-term guidance suggests a trend towards a wetter pattern could develop next weekend.
A strengthening and locally breezy trade wind current is supported by a ridge well N of the islands, with a broad low pressure about 1,200 miles northwest of Kauai. A strong and low subsidence inversion is the result of a strong mid-ridge directly overhead. The end result is a mostly dry trade wind regime, with radar and satellite showing randomly scattered stable and showery low clouds with little in the way of rain. Little change is expected until tonight.
The low in the northwest part of the area will persist in some form for most of next week, while a new low develops well NE of the islands. This will lead to a significant reduction in the low level pressure gradient, with light E to SE winds expected throughout the week. The ridge uphill remains overhead and a mostly dry regime is likely. The greatest chance of showers may be over leeward areas in the afternoon as the convergence of sea breezes encourages cloud formation, with a small chance of showers to windward overnight.
Although confidence is quite low due to the significant spread in guidance, a slow-moving low could develop near the islands next weekend, potentially leading to a wetter regime.

Aviation

Moderate to locally light trading is expected for the remainder of today. Winds will decrease on Monday and remain light for the rest of the week. SHRA and low cigs should favor windward and mauka locations. Short MVFR conds are possible in SHRA, but VFR must prevail.
There are no AIRMETs currently in effect.

Marien

Moderate to locally strong easterly trade winds will continue throughout the day as highest levels remain north of the islands. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect today until 6 p.m. for the typically windy waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island. Winds will gradually decrease this evening early in the week due to two low level gusts expected to develop well to the northwest and northeast of the waters. The surface ridge will weaken, allowing light to moderate easterly to southeasterly sailing directions to remain stable through Friday.
A small, short-lived north to northwest swell will gradually diminish by midweek and shift to a more northeasterly direction on Tuesday. A small background northwesterly energy is expected through the week, before a small to moderate medium period northeasterly swell is forecast towards the end of the week. South-facing coasts will see southerly swells in the background that will keep the surf from flattening out. A small, long-lasting strengthening is expected to occur Monday evening, tapering off over the course of the week, followed by another on Friday.
A Coastal Flood Statement (CFWHFO) for all coastal areas highlights the fact that higher than forecast water levels will be associated with full moon high tides, bringing the potential for minor coastal flooding, especially during the early morning hours through Monday morning.

HFO watches/warnings/advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6:00 PM HST tonight for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data courtesy of NOAA.gov