MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today he takes a closer look at the UFC 309 main event between Michael Chandler and Charles Oliveira.

Charles Oliveira UFC 309 Preview

Charles Oliveira

Staple information:

• Record: 34-10 MMA, 22-10 UFC
• Height: 5’10” Age: 35 Weight: 155 lbs. Range: 74″
• Last fight: Decision loss to Arman Tsarukyan (April 13, 2024)
• Camp: Chute Boxe Diego Lima (Brazil)
• Attitude/distinctive style: Orthodox/muay Thai
• Risk management: Fair

Additional information:
+ Former UFC Lightweight Champion
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+10 KO wins
+ 21 submission wins
+ 16 first-round finishes
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Improved boxing ability
^ Accurate hooks and uppercuts
+ Solid Muay Thai arsenal
^ Dangerous knees and elbows
+ Hard leg kicks
+ Underestimated wrestling ability
^ Strong takedowns from the clinch
+ Fantastic transition grab
^ Miscellaneous Submission Insight
+/- 2-0 in career rematches

Michael Chandler UFC 309 preview

Michael Chandler

Staple information:

• Record: 23-8 MMA, 2-3 UFC
• Height: 5’8″ Age: 38 Weight: 155 lbs. Range: 71.5″
• Final Fight: Submission Loss to Dustin Poirier (November 12, 2022)
• Camp: Sanford MMA (Florida)
• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
• Risk management: Fair

Additional information:
+ 3x Bellator lightweight champion
+ 4x NCAA Division-I All-American wrestler
+11 KO wins
+7 submission wins
+ 12 first-round finishes
+ KO ability
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Improved footwork and fundamentals
^ Will change posture in combination
+ Dangerous right hand
^ To come forward or get off the counter
+ Excellent wrestling ability
^ Explosive level-changing takedowns
+ Good transition grab
^ Effective Ground Attacks and Submissions
+/- 3-2 in career rematches
+/- After a layoff of two years

Michael Chandler vs. Charles Oliveira point of interest: striking for the second time

May 15, 2021; Houston, Texas, USA; Charles Oliveira lands a kick against Michael Chandler during UFC 262 at Toyota Center. Mandatory credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

The co-main event at Madison Square Garden features a rematch between top-ranked lightweights Charles Oliveira and Michael Chandler.

Apparently it’s definitely death, taxes and the UFC matchmakers that have been drowning us with rematches since the pandemic.

But in Mick Maynard and Sean Shelby’s defense, the first meeting between Oliveira and Chandler, which took place three years ago at UFC 262, was the fun, back-and-forth action fight you’d expect from these two.

Chandler, who was putting in the bodywork I first mentioned, was able to build a cross to the body to set up a left hook that hurt Oliveira and sent him into wrestling mode. The American was able to hurt Oliveira with another left hook after they got back on their feet, but it was the Brazilian’s left that had the final say in the next frame.

When Oliveira caught Chandler getting his head back on center after another cross to the body, Oliveira was able to capitalize on a perfect interception that ended the fight. Since then, “Do Bronx” has maintained somewhat of a tightrope theme going forward in regards to the fine line he walks in his fights.

Oliveira will still march Thai forward like a marauding madman, with a sort of touch-n-go theme, as he seems to have a bit of an aptitude for catching and throwing punches.

The timing changes that come with it can work well against a plethora of opponents, but changes of pace and speed are a powerful two-way street when you’re dealing with an explosive athlete like Chandler.

Chandler is an inherent pressure fighter who stormed the UFC stage like a proverbial bull in a Chinese shop and rarely takes a step back in his matches. Chandler’s boxing technique conveyed the athleticism and explosiveness he demonstrated as a wrestler on the Mizzou mats and made impressive progress in his first Bellator tournament, which in turn helped him capture his first world title.

Since then, Chandler appears to have settled in at Sanford MMA, where striking coach Henri Hooft has been able to help with the offensive fundamentals.

I’m curious to see what Chandler’s approach to this will be; and if that plan involves a little more wrestling this time.

michael chandler vs. Charles Oliveira Breakdown: Winning the Wrestling

May 15, 2021; Houston, Texas, USA; Michael Chandler applies a hold against Charles Oliveira at UFC 262 at Toyota Center. Mandatory credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Considering how close each side came to closing the show on the floor in their last meeting, I’ll be curious to see if either fighter is confident enough to gamble in the wrestling department this time around.

A four-time NCAA All-American standout who comes from a solid program and wrestling class, Chandler demonstrates the ability to dictate the wrestling traffic in most of his fights.

Whether Chandler switches levels for a double or hits a single leg, the former Mizzou team captain can be hard to deny when he’s looking to take someone down. Chandler’s reactive speed and almost karate-like footwork allow his level changes to have decent coverage in the open, but the 15-year pro seems to conduct most of his wrestling exchanges against the cage.

Despite Chandler being the better wrestler on paper, Oliveira was the more active and offensive wrestler of the two.

Shortly after being defeated by Frankie Edgar at UFC 162, Oliveira worked diligently to improve that part of his wrestling game. Now, it’s not uncommon to see Oliveira outsmart quite a few of his contemporaries early and often (especially if he can get to any variation of a bodylock).

If Chandler tries to get offensive with his takedowns, as some of us suspected last time, don’t be surprised if Oliveira returns to his home of front-choke counters.

https://twitter.com/DanTomMMA/status/1392291220492218372

Oliveira is masterful at most front headlock variations, showing the acumen to change the dynamics of a position as he unleashes interwoven submission attempts as if firing them from an M-60 machine gun.

Luckily for Chandler, he has some underrated wrestling skills and experience in his back pocket.

By connecting with high-level camps and catching wrestling coaches like Neil Melanson early in his career, we’ve seen the former Mizzou Tiger show solid glimpses of a refined transitional wrestler during parts of his evolution. From defending submissions to the fine details of fighting inside one’s guard, Chandler shows all the basics from hand fighting to head positioning, which of course gives him the opportunity to land his ferocious ground and pound.

https://twitter.com/DanTomMMA/status/1392276328397762560

Chandler also isn’t afraid to take backs that become available, but risks falling into the trap of a quick fight if things get too wild.

michael chandler vs. Charles Oliveira odds

Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler

The oddsmakers and the public favor the former UFC lightweight champion, with Oliveira -265 and Chandler +200 via FanDuel.

michael chandler vs. Charles Oliveira prediction, pick

Despite this fight starting out as a pick’em the first time, I can understand why the odds are tilted in Oliveira’s favor.

Besides being the more active fighter who won the first time, it’s hard to have confidence in Chandler considering the intangibles of his current state.

From the disappointment of having to wait the better part of the last two years for Conor McGregor to the fact that he has admittedly struggled to get back up to 155 pounds for this fight, I find myself changing my attitude which I had last time.

While I still believe Chandler quietly has the tools to be one of the toughest matchups for Oliveira in this weight class, his hard-wiring to fight at an unsustainably breakneck pace turns things into a gamble that’s hard to get behind .

Not only is Chandler’s staying power becoming more suspect by the day, but I also believe there has been some skill regression in key areas that has only added to his problems.

For example, Chandler’s standout defense took a serious hit after he parted ways with then-boxing coach Gil Martinez before entering his first career rematch with Eddie Alvarez.

Martinez, a boxing coach I also trained under, was good at teaching his fighters to always move their heads after throwing punches (e.g., rolling heads off crosses, etc.).

And indeed, in Chandler’s rematch with Alvarez, we got some of our first glimpses of the natural disregard for defense that Chandler can have without the right tools at his disposal.

Another troubling trend is that Chandler, who possesses some very good groundstrokes and underrated submission skills, has steadily come out of wrestling since parting ways with his longtime catch-wrestling coach Neil Melanson prior to his UFC run. And since these two trends are huge for matchups like this, I find myself choosing Oliveira this time.

It’s a scary prediction to land on since rematches rarely go the same way in MMA, but I’ll officially pick “Slim Charles” to keep his perfect rematch record alive by securing a club-and-sub in Round 2.

Start time Michael Chandler vs. Charles Oliveira, where to watch

As a co-main event, Chandler and Oliveira are expected to make their walk to the octagon at approximately 11:45 PM ET. The fight will air live on pay-per-view via ESPN+.