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    • Michigan football scouting report, predictions vs USC in Big Ten debut
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    Michigan football scouting report, predictions vs USC in Big Ten debut

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    Free Press sports reporter Tony Garcia breaks down Michigan’s 2024 Big Ten season opener and Week 4 game against No. 12 Southern Cal on Saturday in Ann Arbor:

    Quick Facts

    Match: No. 17 Michigan (2-1, 0-0 Big Ten) vs. No. 12 USC (2-0, 0-0).

    Kick-off: Saturday, 3:30 p.m.; Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor.

    Television/radio: CBS; WXYT-FM (97.1), WTKA-AM (1050).

    Line: Trojans with 5½.

    Availability Report

    Michigan: From: S. Rod Moore. Doubtful: TE Colston Loveland (upper body). Probably: Quarterback Jack Tuttle.

    USC: Doubtful: LB Mason Cobb, TE Walter Matthews.

    Scouting report

    When Michigan has the ball: The Wolverines have opted to make a significant change, benching quarterback Davis Warren in favor of Alex Orji after the senior lost the ball six times in the team’s first three games. Barring an injury, this game will be all Orji, which will change how U-M’s offense looks. The 6-foot-3, 235-pound athletic junior has rushed for 31 times for 181 yards and three TDs in his career and has attempted just seven passes (four of which he completed for 20 yards with two touchdowns); while head coach Sherrone Moore insists he can throw, his No. 1 job will be to avoid turnovers.

    The offense could look different this week, with potential sets featuring multiple running backs, multiple tight ends, H-backs or a combination of all of the above. In particular, look for Michigan to establish the run game with Kalel Mullings, who is averaging 7.5 yards per carry, and Donovan Edwards. UM could struggle on offense without star tight end Colston Loveland. He leads all Wolverines in receptions (19) and receiving yards (187) but left last week’s game with an injury. Michigan will have to contend with a USC defense that is allowing just 10 points per game and has made notable strides in tackling — one reason the Trojans are ranked 100 spots higher after switching coordinators from Alex Grinch to D’Anton Lynn. Anthony Lucas is the “game wrecker” Moore has repeatedly talked about, but don’t rule out Bear Alexander or linebacker Eric Gentry either.

    “To be balanced, we’ve got to own it,” Moore said earlier this week. “I think the run game has to set up the pass game, the play action, all those things to make us successful.”

    When USC has the ball: Despite USC facing LSU in Week 1, the Trojans still have one of the statistically strongest offenses in the country. USC is tied for No. 16 in total offense (495.5 yards per game) and No. 27 in scoring offense (37.5 points per game), despite losing QB Caleb Williams, a former Heisman Trophy winner and No. 1 overall pick in April’s NFL draft, to downtown Detroit.

    USC likes to spread the ball around. There are 12 different Trojans with multiple receptions, led by tight end Lake McRee, who has nine catches for 137 yards, but the most dangerous prospect is wide receiver Zachariah Branch. The Trojans not only run the sophomore on go routes, but also like to put him in the slot and plan him out across formations, something head coach Lincoln Riley does exceptionally well. The UM defense, which ranks 54th in total defense (304.3 yards per game) and 57th in scoring (19.7 points per game), has emphasized a return to the “four pillars” of defense, with a specific focus on effort and angles during tackling and pre-snap communication to ensure everyone is properly aligned.

    “Lincoln Riley has been doing this for a long time,” Michigan defensive backs coach LaMar Morgan said. “You see him on the sideline all the time, he has the shortest call sheet, but he can do a lot of variations. I think he’s really good at getting the ball in the hands of his playmakers. He knows he can see whatever coverage you’re throwing at him. He knows what to do. If you change it, he goes back to it. He makes repeat plays. I just think they do a really good job of distributing the ball.”

    Know the enemy

    Miller time: The man responsible for distributing the ball is quarterback Miller Moss. The 6-foot-1, 205-pound junior has made an impression early in his career, completing 48 of 66 passes (72.7%) for 607 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions this season. The advanced numbers are just as impressive. According to Pro Football Focus, Moss’s passing grade of 90.8 ranks No. 5 in the country among quarterbacks with at least 25 attempts, and both of his touchdowns came when he was blitzed. Moss has completed 61.5% of his passes when defenses send an extra man and is an impressive 10-for-14 when pressured.

    “He’s one of the best quarterbacks in the country,” Morgan said Wednesday. “Seriously. I think if you watch his video, you see what he does, the placement — he’s on his back foot and he’s getting hit, and the ball’s on the money. I just think anyone who plays him this year is going to see a quarterback who’s ready for the challenge. (He’s) prepared. I think he’s one of the best players in their offense, without a doubt.”

    Not just any runner: Running back Woody Marks, a transfer from Mississippi State, has helped unlock USC’s offense. Not only is he a big body who runs behind his pads and drops forward — he had nearly 1,900 rushing yards and 22 touchdowns in four seasons with the Bulldogs — but his skills in the passing game are crucial. Marks has caught at least one pass in an absurd 47 consecutive games and has 220 receptions for 1,271 yards (both would be all-time running back records at Michigan) and five receiving touchdowns for his career. UM defensive coordinator Wink Martindale likes to do a lot of man coverage, which could mean linebackers Ernest Hausmann or Jaishawn Barham will have to prove they can handle their own in pass coverage.

    Riley’s rules: Since 2018, three of the seven Heisman winners have backed Riley’s offenses: Baker Mayfield (2018) and Kyler Murray (2019) at Oklahoma, and Williams (2022) at USC. Like Texas offensive guru Steve Sarkisian, Riley is known for his offenses that can find and exploit a weakness. This year, the goal has been to spread defenses wide and get individual players to play in space.

    Tony Garcia’s Two Cents

    Stay away from: What’s the best way to shut down such a potent offense? Keep it on the sidelines. The Wolverines have been a ball-control offense during their 2021-23 rally, doing a good job of keeping the ball away from opponents and their offenses on the sidelines. Michigan’s time of possession is actually nearly identical — UM had the ball 32:14 per game last year and 32:21 this year — but turnovers have been brutal. If Michigan can cut those down, the Wolverines have the script they want.

    Third downs: One of the keys to ball control is third-down success, and Michigan hasn’t lived up to its usual standard. The Wolverines are No. 39 in converting third downs, moving the sticks on 16 of 35 attempts (45.7%), while USC is No. 35 in the nation, converting 9 of 19 chances (47.4%). The biggest difference is on defense. Michigan is No. 100 in the nation in getting off the field on third down (with a 41.2% conversion rate), while USC is No. 31 (29.2%).

    Prediction

    It’s rare to have so many unknowns in Week 4, but that’s what happens when there’s a big quarterback change. It could go a couple of different ways. Maybe Orji unlocks the run element, complements the defense perfectly, and Michigan has found a new formula. Or maybe there’s a reason Orji wasn’t the starter originally and it’s showing. Or maybe there are just flashes, but not enough to last a game. Either way, USC just has too much talent and too solid a schedule. The choice: New York University, …

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