KAmala Harris stood before a cheering crowd of hundreds of her supporters in Philadelphia and vowed to deliver results in Pennsylvania, a battleground state considered a must-win in the Electoral College.

“We’re just nine days away from one of the most consequential elections of our lifetime, and we know this will be a close race until the end,” the vice president told supporters in Philadelphia last weekend. “And make no mistake: we will win.”

And yet, a day earlier, Donald Trump declared at a rally in State College: “We’re going to get this done. It will be the greatest victory in the history of our country for all of us – not for me, for all of us.”

The conflicting comments reflect a neck-and-neck race in Pennsylvania that is hurtling toward the finish line with no clear frontrunner. The victor of Pennsylvania and its nineteen electoral votes, the most of any battleground state, will likely win the Electoral College and determine the nation’s trajectory for the next four years.

Joe Biden won Pennsylvania by just 1.2 points in 2020, four years after Trump won the state by 0.7 points. According to the Guardian’s poll tracker, Trump currently has a lead of less than one point over Harris in the state.

Conversations with voters in Pennsylvania underscore how close the election is, often to the bewilderment of both Democrats and Republicans. And the outcome could perhaps be changed by unexpected events, such as Trump’s rally last weekend at Madison Square Garden in New York. It was there that a comedian took the stage for Trump and insulted Puerto Rico, calling it an “island of trash.” As experts were quick to point out afterward, Pennsylvania is home to more than 470,000 Puerto Ricans.

For Democrats, the focus is on galvanizing voters in Pennsylvania cities such as Philadelphia and Scranton and their immediate suburbs, home to many women and college-educated voters they see as receptive to their message of protecting democracy and abortion. Republicans are more focused on winning over white working-class voters and a growing number of young men of color, attacking Harris over the president’s immigration policies and high inflation during his early presidency.

This dynamic is exemplified by Lackawanna County, which includes Scranton. Hillary Clinton won the 2016 election by 3.4 points, but decisively lost most of the bordering counties as white working-class voters flocked to Trump.

Four years later, Biden won Lackawanna County by 8.4 points, though Trump’s continued strength with working-class voters in neighboring counties helped him keep the race close in Pennsylvania.

The outcome here, as always, will depend on turnout, and Democrats are counting on a robust ground game to help them achieve a victory. The culinary union Unite Here, for example, endorsed Harris in August and has knocked on more than 1 million doors in Pennsylvania this election cycle, with a goal of surpassing 1.25 million by November 5.

Jaime Hunt, a 22-year-old organizer with Unite Here, walked through South Philadelphia on a recent sunny Saturday asking voters if they planned to vote by mail, encouraging them to fill out their ballot on the spot if they had already received them.

The recruitment efforts of Unite Here and other pro-Harris groups could make a crucial difference in Pennsylvania. In 2020, Biden narrowly defeated Trump in the state by about 80,000 votes, in part by maximizing his advantage in Philadelphia and surrounding suburbs. This year, based on her many conversations with voters, Hunt is confident in Harris’ chances.

“There are also a lot – quite a few – Republicans who are voting for her. A lot of people are switching,” says Hunt. “I think it will be her who wins.”

Daniel Levin, regional organizing director of the youth voting group NextGen America, has spent months on Philadelphia college campuses getting thousands of students to vote, and is now helping them make a plan to vote for Harris and other Democrats.

Despite concerns about whether young voters will support Harris, especially given widespread outrage over the Biden administration’s response to the war in Gaza, Levin predicted high youth turnout in Philadelphia. Last Friday, he convinced a young voter from Temple University to support Harris after explaining how her policies could benefit the city’s low-income residents.

“This is the place to be optimistic that we’re going to have a huge turnout,” Levin said. “And I think we will do that this year too. I really think we’ll do that in Philadelphia, and we’ll have to carry (Pennsylvania).

In contrast to the broad network of pro-Harris groups working to turn out left-wing voters, the Trump campaign’s relatively meager ground operation in battleground states like Pennsylvania has stoked concern among his allies. Trump and the Republican National Committee have instead focused more attention on combating alleged voter fraud, recently highlighting concerns about potentially fraudulent registrations in Lancaster County.

Despite Trump’s inattention to his voter turnout operation, he has managed to keep the race in Pennsylvania highly competitive, and his most ardent supporters appear as motivated as ever to vote for him.

“I’ve never seen a movement like this in my life,” said John Spatig Jr., 46, who attended a Trump rally in Allentown and lives in Northampton County, one of the biggest callers in the state. He said the most important issue for him was the government’s response to the Covid-19 pandemic and vaccine mandates.

“How is the government going to guarantee me that there will never be a lockdown?” he said.

Marilynn Raymond, 77, a retired accountant from Reading, said Tuesday at Trump’s rally in Allentown that she didn’t believe the polls showing a close race.

“All the fuss Trump has created throughout the election far outweighs Kamala,” she said. “I think he’s way ahead.”

As this campaign season nears its end, Pennsylvania voters appear to be approaching Election Day with a mix of fatigue, excitement and anxiety.

The fatigue was visible as Hunt made her rounds through South Philadelphia, with one resident responding to her knocks by shouting through the door, “Nobody’s home!”

Both parties have already pumped hundreds of millions of dollars in campaign ads into Pennsylvania, and especially Philadelphia. Philadelphia-based ABC affiliate WPVI completely sold out Election Day on October 24.

Alex Pearlman, a comedian from suburban Philadelphia with a large following on TikTok, met with Tim Walz before a rally in Scranton, and he said he urged the Democratic vice presidential candidate to keep voters energized for the final piece.

“Everyone’s tired,” Pearlman said. “Everyone’s been pretty ready the whole time. I think most people were holding their breath to see who the candidates would be after the primaries. So now that we’ve gotten to this point, almost everyone has made a decision.”

That dynamic has forced Harris and Trump to fight over an increasingly small number of undecided voters as they rush toward Election Day. According to an Emerson College poll taken in late October, only 3% of likely voters in Pennsylvania were still undecided. And yet that 3% could make all the difference, given that the state has been decided by about one point in the past two presidential elections.

The narrow margins have led to frustration and confusion among Democrats and Republicans in Pennsylvania. How, they ask, can the race for president still be so close?

“(Harris) is going to win, but I don’t believe the polls. I can’t believe we’re tied 50-50,” said Kathy Andrews, a 64-year-old voter from Philadelphia who attended Harris’ rally there. “I give a lot of credit to the American people for everyone having some common sense.”

Morgan Pastner Jaffe, a 32-year-old voter from West Chester, said the possibility of Trump’s victory makes her “very afraid for the future — for women, for people of color and also for all different religions.”

“She has to win or we’re screwed,” Jaffe said at Harris’ rally.

With the race still on the line, the Trump campaign, wary of alienating a critical voting bloc, has sought to distance itself from the comedian who made the comment about Puerto Rico at Madison Square Garden.

Rich Patti, 71, said at Trump’s rally in Allentown that he didn’t think those comments would hurt Trump’s chances with Latino voters.

“They are the backbone of our country and that backbone is hurting right now,” he said. “They work hard, they want the same thing. They want to be able to pay their bills and live a good life.”

People of Puerto Rican descent in the state have suggested otherwise. “I was definitely frustrated, I was angry — but I wasn’t surprised,” Philadelphia council member Quetcy Lozada told the Guardian.

The high stakes of the election are on display across Pennsylvania. Of the many signs adorning lawns and lampposts in Philadelphia, some are eschewing the traditional “Harris-Walz 2024” for slogans like: “Defend Choice!” and “Defend democracy!”

“I don’t think you can walk around the city of Philadelphia and not know how important it is to people,” said Shane Ringressy, organizer of NextGen in Pennsylvania. “So I will say that Philadelphia itself, including all the young people in the city, seems absolutely ready to fight and do their part.”