Polling expert Nate Silver criticized other pollsters for manipulating survey results ahead of the 2024 presidential election, accusing them of recycling past results to make the race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris appear close. Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight, called out pollsters for “herding” their numbers, specifically mentioning Emerson College in his criticism.

“I trust pollsters less,” Silver said during an episode of his weekly podcast: Risky business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova. “All of them, every time a pollster (says), ‘Oh, every single state is just plus-one, every single state is a tie,’ no! You’re fucking herding! You’re cheating! You’re cheating!”

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Silver’s own model shows Trump leading Harris, 55% to 45%, as the election approaches. He expressed frustration that pollsters consistently showed close races, arguing that they were trying not to stand out. He suggested: ‘Your numbers won’t all add up exactly to one point if you sample 800 people through dozens of surveys. You lie! You’re putting your damn finger on the scale!’

Silver also criticized pollsters who avoid releasing surprising numbers, saying, “If a pollster never releases numbers that surprise you, then it has no value.”

In an op-ed in the New York Times, Silver highlighted skepticism about gut feelings in predicting elections, citing an under-sampling of past Trump supporters, which he said caused skewed results. He noted that “Trump supporters often have lower levels of civic engagement and social trust, making them less likely to take a news organization survey.”Also read: When will India get to know about the US election results? Despite the election problems, Silver pointed out that swing-state polls indicate a close race, with all seven states voting within a point and a half. “It doesn’t take a genius to know that if every swing state is a tie, the overall forecast is also a tie,” he said.

Silver remains consistent in his prediction that Trump will win Harris, maintaining a 55% to 45% margin. He also called out Republican Party-oriented polling firms for consistently showing Trump a narrow lead to avoid making bold predictions.

According to RealClearPolitics, Trump currently leads Harris in national and swing-state averages, while the New York Times/Siena College poll found the two tied at 48%. However, Silver advised caution and continued scrutiny of election methodologies in the final days leading up to the election.