The New York Knicks were widely hailed as one of the winners of the offseason, creating buzz and widespread belief that they were ready to compete in the Eastern Conference. They are currently the fourth seed in the East, a half-game out of third and 3.5 games behind the Celtics in the Atlantic Division.

The Suns were once declared winners of the previous offseason, when they traded for Bradley Beal to build an All-Star “Big Three” with Devin Booker and Kevin Durant. In the offseason they brought in a championship-winning head coach, Mike Budenholzer, and entered the season as the favorites to win the Pacific Division. They are currently tied for fifth place in the Western Conference, two games behind the Warriors for first place in both the West and Pacific Divisions.

Does either team have value in the futures market? If so, in which markets?

All odds are current as of publication. For the latest odds, visit ESPN BET

Knicks on the rise

The Knicks started the season slowly, losing five of their first nine games by an average of 11.4 points. They have won four of five since then, and their eight victories this season have been convincing, by an average margin of 17.3 points.

Part of their slow start was likely due to the tough competition, with their first two losses coming at the hands of the Celtics and against the Cavaliers, the top two seeds in the East.

Another part was likely due to the team learning to play together after rebuilding so much of their roster over the past year. Karl-Anthony Towns (October) and Mikal Bridges (July) were both added in the offseason, and OG Anunoby (December) was also relatively new as a Knick.

Then there are the team’s issues on defense. While Towns is one of the best offensive big men in the league, he hasn’t given the Knicks the kind of defensive prowess and rim protection they’ve gotten from Mitchell Robinson or even Isaiah Hartenstein in the past. The result on the court is a team that looks a lot like Towns: excellent on offense (Knicks rank third with a team offensive rating of 121.8 points per 100 possessions, fifth with an offensive BPI of 2.4), but undersized on defense (21st with a team defense rating of 115.9 points allowed per 100 possessions, 27th with a defensive BPI of -2.5).

The good news for the Knicks is that their defense is running out of steam has to get better. Head Coach Tom Thibodeau is one of the best defensive minds in the league, and all three starting wings are plus defenders. Anunoby is a candidate for Defensive Player of the Year, Bridges initially made his NBA name on the defensive end of the court and Hart is one of the toughest fullbacks and rebounders in the NBA.

Over time, schemes and aggressive fullbacks should elevate the Knicks as a unit. Additionally, Robinson is expected to return from offseason ankle surgery in the next two months and should provide a defensive boost even if he comes off the bench.

One bet to avoid: Knicks to win the Atlantic Division (+340)

Yes, the Knicks should improve as the season progresses. But will they improve enough to make up games against a Celtics team that is already dominant and has a several-game lead over the Knicks, even before they get a single game from All-Star big man Kristaps Porzingis? That seems unlikely, relative to their odds, so I see no value in the Knicks winning the Atlantic Division (available on ESPN BET at +340, behind the odds-on favorite Celtics (-400).

One bet: Knicks to win more than 52.5 games (-115)

The Knicks are only two games above .500, but they already have a strong scoring margin of +5.8 PPG that is steadily rising. Margin is often a better indicator of team caliber than a record. Over the past two NBA seasons, only four teams have finished the season with a scoring margin greater than +5.8. Those teams averaged 58.5 wins, with all four winning at least 56 games. So I find value in this bet.

Injuries are hampering the Suns… again

The Suns started the season on fire, winning eight of their first nine games to sit atop the Pacific Division. But in that ninth game, they lost Durant to a calf injury, and he hasn’t played since. Without Durant, the Suns have lost five of their past six games by a losing margin of 12.2 PPG.

The Suns’ three superstars have unfortunate injury histories, suggesting their struggles without Durant may not be a short-term problem. Despite playing 75 games last season, Durant has missed an average of 26.5 games over the last four seasons, without even taking into account the fact that he missed the entirety of the 2019-20 season while recovering from injury. Booker has missed an average of 19 games over the past three seasons, while Beal has missed an average of 34.3 games over that span.

Three bets to avoid: Suns win the Pacific Division (+225), win the West (+700), win the championship (+1600)

There’s just too much uncertainty about availability, even before we get unanswered questions from last season about whether a perimeter-based Big Three — where all three are score-first players — can win in the playoffs.

One bet: Suns to win fewer than 49.5 games (-115)

The Suns have a scoring margin of -1.5 PPG. Over the last three seasons, only two teams have finished with a negative scoring margin even above .500, and none have had more than 46 wins. Last season, when Durant played his most games since the 2018-19 season, the Suns still won “only” 49 games. They may not achieve that goal this season.

Bonus Bet: Suns to Enter Western Conference Play-In Tournament (+185)

If the season were to end today, the sixth seed Suns would just miss the tournament. However, sorted by scoring margin, the Suns would narrowly miss out on the tournament at the other end in the 11th slot. The West is deep and the Pacific Division is the most competitive division in the NBA, with all five teams currently above .500. This could easily push the Suns, who just missed the play-in last season as the sixth seed, into the play-in mix this time around.