RJ Barrett and Cade Cunningham Statistics

Since 2022, the NBA has chosen to take Election Day off to increase voter turnout. The result is that we get every team in action tonight. After a quiet Sunday, it’s a great day for hoops, especially with college basketball starting tonight as well.

The news of the day comes from Phoenix, where Paul George will make his debut for the Philadelphia 76ers. Joel Embiid – who got into a feud with Philadelphia Inquirer columnist Marcus Hayes – will not play tonight.

It is unknown if George will be on a minutes restriction, but it stands to reason that he will not have a full workload on his plate tonight against the Suns. The gambling market at least seems to think so. Phoenix opened as a 4.5-point favorite on the overnight lines, and they are currently -7 across the board. George also has some very muted stats in the player prop market. His point total is 17.5, shaded to over.

This will give this column a different appearance in the future. Every Monday and Friday I analyze some of the different gambling trends taking place in the NBA. What we learned this weekend and what we saw during an action-packed week.

Zach Cohen will continue to do his excellent work on a daily basis, and you can always find NBA betting odds from myself, Cohen, and the rest of the VSiN contributors on our picks page.

The dominance of RJ Barrett

The Toronto Raptors may be in the news today for their “global ambassador” Drake’s fight against Sacramento Kings guard DeMar DeRozan, but in gambling circles they should be front and center for a completely different reason.

In Saturday’s win over Sacramento, RJ Barrett went crazy. The Raptors guard scored 31 points on 10-of-26 shooting, grabbed nine rebounds and added six assists. Barrett scored or assisted on the last nine lines for Toronto. As a result, Barrett exceeded market expectations for him that day, but this was not a one-off event.

Scottie Barnes will be out at least three weeks due to an orbital fracture. With him on the bench were Immanuel Quickley, Bruce Brown and Kelly Olynyk. Toronto has been decimated by injuries early on, and as a result, their number of ball handlers and shot makers has been reduced to one: Barrett.

In the three games since Barnes’ injury, Barrett has a usage rate of 35.5%, a rate similar to Luka Doncic’s for the season (36.2%). The Raptors guard has averaged 31.7 points, 6.0 rebounds and 8.7 assists on 51.5% shooting from the floor. Toronto has virtually no one reliable to run the offense due to injury, so Barrett has benefited, and so have the punters.

Last Wednesday the Raptors were in Charlotte and took on the Hornets. Barrett’s points, rebounds and assists prop opened at 32.5 but closed at 30.5 at most outlets. Barrett finished with a total of 43 points, rebounds and assists that night, and he has surpassed that number in every game since. The market has adjusted and his prop for tonight is a consensus of 35.5 as of this morning, but given his usage you could say the adjustment isn’t enough.

Of the three statistical categories, assists stand out the most for Barrett. He averaged 4.1 per game in a Raptors uniform last season. In this new role, he has assisted on 37.1% of baskets made while on the floor. According to NBA tracking data, he is averaging 13.3 potential assists per game. In his first game of the season, his assist prop was 3.5 and in the games since – including Monday against Denver – that number has increased to 5.5. To invoke Doncic again – similar usage rate and worse assist rate – his number is 7.5, heavily pushed to the side.

However, Barrett’s run here appears to have an expiration date. Once Quickley returns from injury – which appears to be on the horizon – his usage rate will suffer and assist opportunities will decrease. This is a trend that is the result of a change in workload, and will emerge for other players throughout the season if teammates become injured. It’s one of the player’s corner points worth deploying with consistency until it dries up.

Cade Cunningham’s Expandable Bag

Detroit isn’t off to the strongest start this season, but the cornerstone of their franchise is.

Through seven games, Cade Cunningham has averaged a career-high 24.1 points and 6.9 assists. Both his overall shooting percentage (49.3%) and three-point shooting accuracy (39.5%) are the best in his time in the league. That’s why he’s tied for the second-highest odds to be DraftKings’ Most Improved Player of the Year (+1200). But what makes this all even more impressive is the fact that it shows such a spike in efficiency at higher volume.

Cunningham is averaging 19.1 shot attempts per game. On the face of it, it’s not a huge jump from the 18.8 per game he put up last season. However, he is taking more three-point attempts, and he is making them at a much higher rate. Last season, Cunningham averaged 5.4 three-point attempts per game. This season he scores 6.1 per game. This doesn’t seem to be an anomaly either. It seems like it’s a concerted effort to improve his expansive game and add more.

Last season, Cunningham averaged 7.3 pull-up field goal attempts per game and 2.0 pull-up 3-point attempts. He shot 43.6% on pull-ups overall and 32.5% on pull-ups from beyond the arc. Through seven games this season, he is averaging 8.6 pull-up attempts per game and 3.6 from deep. He is shooting 36.0% on 3-point pull-ups this season. As a result, his 3-point per-game average has increased from 1.9 in the 2023-2024 season to 2.4 this year.

In six of the seven games, Cunningham has used his new weapon to go over his three-point bracket. Sunday’s win over Brooklyn was the first game this season in which he did not make multiple three-point attempts. The market has adapted very much here. The juice of more than 1.5 3-point brands was -180 at several stores yesterday. Today, against the Los Angeles Lakers, his lead is -165 or more to the over.

The question now becomes: is this a trend worth following as the season progresses? The answer I keep coming back to is no. Maybe Cunningham will become a knockdown, pull-up shooter who hits 40% of his three-point attempts. But at current prices – the implied probability of -165 is 62.3% – the market has completely priced out gamblers. It may seem tempting to buy for a player who is down 6-1 on his 3-point props, but there doesn’t seem to be much of a bargain at the moment.