We bet we’ll win.

And if I’m the one making the bet, I need two keys to have the confidence to place the bet:

1. A model-backed approach, or at least a quantitative angle. But almost all of the bets in this column will be based on the output of models built by me, or occasionally by my colleagues at ESPN Analytics.

2. A less efficient market. NFL teams and totals are big markets, and betting against those mainstream numbers is like betting on All-Madden mode. That’s why I tend to look at props (especially on defense!) and alternate lines. Less attention means less efficient markets, and more opportunities to find value.

Those two criteria are at the heart of this weekly column. Each week I will be placing bets from our models in mostly less visible categories with the simple goal of coming out on top. We will be looking at odds across the spectrum, from -1000s to 100-1s — to me, value is value, regardless of price.

I promise one thing: we will keep track of the results — by category of bets — no matter what. It’s a little scary, because losing is a big possibility. But I also think it’s very important. And that’s what I did a year ago in my similar “last-minute bets” column.

Last season it finished with an ROI of 6.2% on 466 bets. I can’t guarantee success based on that — it will be tougher this year, especially if sack props (my most profitable category) aren’t available, as they currently aren’t in Week 1 — but we’ll post how we did, win or lose.

To continue the theme of transparency, I establish the following basic rules:

1. For simplicity, I’ll bet one unit per bet, regardless of the odds.

2. The story is submitted on Thursdays and posted shortly thereafter. I check the rules just before I submit, and if I do, I consider them locked, regardless of whether they move in any direction between then and kickoff.

3. I can add bets later. So if a prop isn’t offered on Thursday but is added on Friday and I like it, I can submit that bet and it will be placed shortly after, with a note indicating the day it was added. The same rules for odds movements apply.

4. I consider bets where no action is taken as push bets.

5. All odds are via ESPN BET. Of course my advice to you is to always find the best line you can.

Now that we have all the housekeeping out of the way, let’s talk football. It’s time for some betting on week 1.

Alternative receiving lines

Wan’Dale Robinson 40+ receiving yards (+200)

Because he tends to catch short passes, Robinson doesn’t exactly have the profile of a receiver who’s going to significantly exceed his prop line, which is 29.5. And you can see in the chart below that Robinson is more likely to get 20, 30, or 40 yards than his teammates Darius Slayton and Jalin Hyatt, but is less likely to have an explosive play. However, at 40+ yards, that’s just good value for Robinson: it pays 2-1 for him to exceed his over/under by just 10.5 yards.

It helps that Robinson had a very respectable 21.5% target share last year. And while it’s not in the model, I think Robinson’s ability to run quick routes should be an asset, especially against the Vikings, who are blitzing a lot under defensive coordinator Brian Flores.

A new model I’ve been working on this offseason is a full distribution of receiving yards for a single player in a single game.

Here are the Giants WRs in Week 1. The graph shows the probability (y) that each receiver reaches at least x yards. photo.twitter.com/zLipEJHQ2a

— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) September 5, 2024

KJ Osborn 30+ receiving yards (+210)

One clue the model picks up is Osborn’s receiving yards props from a year ago, when he averaged an over/under of 30.4. Situation certainly plays a big role in those numbers and his current lines. But he can certainly be a receiver whose median line is around 30 under the right circumstances. New England’s receiver roles are a bit unclear, so we’ll use the uncertainty to our advantage by playing the alt line. Plus, the fact that the Patriots are 8.5-point underdogs to the Bengals means they’ll likely trail — and throw.

Also consider:
Jauan Jennings 35+ receiving yards (+260)

Always touchdowns

Okay, these aren’t exactly stealthy bets. I originally planned to focus on non-touchdown bets. However, they are backed by a model and that’s good enough to meet our criteria.

Nico Collins scores 1+ touchdowns (+185)

From a model perspective, there’s a lot to like about Collins here. He’s an outside receiver in an offense with a high implied team total (25.75) and was simply outstanding last season. One number the model likes: Collins ranked fifth in air yards completed per route (think: yards per route, but only yards traveling through the air, because those are more repeatable than YAC yards) with 1.91.

Also consider:
Jaylen Waddle 1+ TDs (+145)
Tyreek Hill 1+ TDs (-125)
Tank Dell 1+ TDs (+260)

Multiple touchdowns

Tank Dell scores 2+ touchdowns (+2000)

It’s pretty clear that my touchdown model is high on the Texans in Week 1. I’m a little wary that this is because it doesn’t fully account for the added target competition that Stefon Diggs brings, but at the same time, the model doesn’t know something — something I value — and that is that Dell has scored incredibly well in ESPN’s receiver scoring with an open score of 81, which ranked eighth last year. Overall, the model likes Dell for many of the same reasons as Collins. Dell ranked sixth in air yards completed per route run last year, just one spot behind Collins. I’m being conservative with my touchdown models since they’re brand new, but for what it’s worth, I’ve priced Dell’s 2+ touchdown odds at +1265.

Alternative total

Raiders at Chargers above 45.5 (+170)

This comes from a brand new FPI+ model created by my colleague Dylan Mervis from the sports analytics team. FPI+ is a translation of our generic Football Power Index into a model designed to be used in the betting market. So why the variation here? The combination of the Chargers offensive FPI rating (13th) and the Raiders offensive FPI rating (26th) results in the model believing the median total should be slightly higher than the 40.5 line it currently is. And looking at the spectrum of possible totals, above 45.5 is where we had the biggest disagreement with the market. FPI+ prices alternating at +156.