Good morning, Seattle Seahawks fans! It’s the week before Thanksgiving and I’m thankful the Seahawks (5-5) are still in the playoff hunt. That glimmer of hope could quickly disappear if the Seahawks fail to take care of business at home against the Arizona Cardinals (6-4). It’s the first of two meetings in three weeks for these teams, and the NFC West race could be decided just about at the end of the second meeting.

It’s time for some predictions! Before we get into this week, let’s take another look at the 49ers game predictions!

Bold prediction: Christian McCaffrey held under 100 yards rushing

Not just under 100! He had just 79 yards and rushed with sub-par efficiency.

Seahawks foul prediction: zero turnovers

Sigh. Maybe we should accept that the Seahawks are sensitive to this. That interception by Geno Smith was astonishingly bad. Good thing he made up for it, and then some at the end.

Seahawks defense prediction: The sack drought ends

Derick Hall recorded a ‘sack’ in the form of Brock Purdy tripping. Dre’Mont Jones got a legitimate sack when he planted Purdy in the backfield and even denied the 49ers a field goal attempt at the end of the half.

Enemy Prediction: 49ers win the red zone battle

No! The Seahawks went 2-for-2 in the red zone, while the 49ers went 2-for-3. Their only failure was after Geno’s interception.

Game Prediction: Seahawks lose, but it will be their biggest and most competitive loss during this series

Well… it was almost a narrow competitive loss. In fact, it was a victory!

Shall I predict victory on this occasion? Find out soon…

Bold prediction: Seahawks finally score an opening drive touchdown

The Seahawks have been pretty bad at opening drives.

Interception
Point
Field goal
Point
Point
Interception
Field goal
Point
Point
Field goal

You have to go back to Drew Lock’s emergency start against the San Francisco 49ers for the Seahawks’ final opening drive (TD). Geno Smith’s last opening drive TD came the week before against the Dallas Cowboys.

I say this annoying streak comes to an end! The Cardinals have allowed three opening drive touchdowns (vs. Dolphins, vs. Lions, vs. Commanders) so they can be kept out of the gate. If there was ever a time to come out, it’s now.

Seahawks offensive prediction: DK Metcalf gets at least 60 receiving yards and a touchdown

For whatever reason, DK Metcalf hasn’t been a huge factor in the Cardinals offense. His most famous play against them was on defense, and you know what I’m talking about. Through nine games, he has just 23 catches (on 53 targets) for 245 yards and 2 touchdowns, and he hasn’t exceeded 60 yards in any of those encounters.

This is the toughest offense Metcalf has ever played in, and the Cardinals secondary outside Budda Baker, while much improved, is not elite. Metcalf will have targets, he will have opportunities to make big plays, and I think he will have a very productive afternoon and ultimately cross the 60-yard threshold against Arizona. He will also score his first TD since Week 7 against the Atlanta Falcons.

Seahawks defense prediction: Devon Witherspoon will get a sack, an interception or both

I’ve used this prediction before, but I’m too lazy to remember which week I used it. Witherspoon has his best game of the season against the 49ers, assisting on a Johnathan Hankins interception by tapping the ball in the air. We’re still waiting for a sack or an interception from him, and I think if anyone can take Kyler Murray to the ground, it’s him. Most likely it would be a backside blitz, similar to what Murray experienced against the Jets.

It’s more likely that Witherspoon will be picked, even though Murray has only thrown three interceptions all year. Arizona’s star receiver (in the making) is Marvin Harrison Jr, but I think Riq Woolen will mostly be compared to the rookie. Greg Dortch is third among Cardinals wide receivers in targets with 33, but the matchup I can see intriguing is Witherspoon against Michael Wilson, who is primarily an outside receiver but plays a decent role in the slot.

Provided the game script doesn’t lead to a heavy game plan, I can see Kyler Spoon testing and getting burned.

Enemy Prediction: Trey McBride scores his first touchdown of the season

One of the best tight ends in the NFL has done everything but score. The third-year player from Colorado State broke out last season as one of the top pass-catching options with 81 catches for 825 yards and 3 touchdowns. Just past the halfway mark of 2024, he has 49 catches for 552 yards… but no touchdowns.

While I’m happy with the defensive improvement over the last two games, the Seahawks played a 49ers team without George Kittle and a Rams team still missing Tyler Higbee. Colby Parkinson hasn’t exactly proven to be a great TE1 option for LA. McBride is another beast who is very athletic and has great hands.

The Seahawks have allowed 49 catches for 506 yards and 3 touchdowns against tight ends, and rank 18th in DVOA vs. TEs (according to FTN Fantasy). This will be a serious test for new starting linebackers Tyrice Knight and Ernest Jones IV, as well as the safeties. I think we might be a little disappointed with the results.

Game Prediction: Seahawks end home losing streak and restore NFC West lead

Yes, I believe the Seahawks will win. This is the first time since Week 5 against the New York Giants that I’ve picked a Seattle win. The Cardinals are a team on the rise, but they are not invincible. Containing Kyler Murray and James Conner will be difficult, but if the defensive resurgence is real, we could see Arizona being contained just enough to not have to win the offense. Murray tops the NFL in QBR when pressed, so discipline will be key when he is pressed.

I’m a little concerned that the offensive line will have more trouble against the Cardinals’ suddenly competent defense, especially with the simulated pressure and higher blitz rate than the San Francisco 49ers. What they lack in a dominant pass rush (30th in pass rush winning percentage), they make up for with creativity. Ultimately, I prefer that Geno Smith and Seattle’s receivers outperform Arizona’s secondary, and that the running game (32nd in EPA/play since the Giants loss) will have its best performance in weeks. It will be close, it will be nail-biting, but the Seahawks will prevail 27-24.

As part two of this prediction, I’m also backing the Philadelphia Eagles to beat the Los Angeles Rams, so the combination of Seahawks win + Rams loss would be enough to send Seattle to the top of the standings.

Go ‘Hawks!