We’re headed into Week 7 of the 2024 NFL season and we’re sure you are fully prepared for the loaded slate. But just in case you need some last-minute intel, our NFL analysts have you covered at the eleventh hour.

First, analytics writer Seth Walder breaks down five stat trends that could be pivotal this weekend. Fantasy football writer Eric Moody runs through five players who are rostered in under 50% of ESPN fantasy football leagues as of Saturday and who could be picked up and started in a jam this weekend. That’s followed by NFL analyst Matt Bowen pointing to five potential surprises that could happen and NFL analyst Ben Solak picking out one team on upset watch. Finally, insider Jeremy Fowler gives the latest buzz, rumors and news you might have missed.

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Stat trends | Fantasy sleepers
Potential surprises | Upset watch
Latest buzz

Walder: Five key stat trends that could determine Week 7 winners

Can Jayden Daniels vault himself to the top of the MVP race against the Panthers?

Daniels ranked third in ESPN’s MVP poll this week, and the Commanders’ rookie quarterback could get a big boost there by playing against Carolina. The Panthers have the worst defense in football, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index. Opponents are scoring 33.8 points per game and have a QBR of 85.5 against them — both of which rank last in the NFL.

The Saints put up 47 against the Panthers. Caleb Williams threw for over 300 yards and an 81 QBR. The Falcons posted 38 points just last week. Daniels, who is third in QBR at 73.6 and has 10 total touchdowns this season, is about to have his turn. And when he does, he probably won’t be +1200 to win MVP anymore (per ESPN BET).

Will Diontae Johnson raise his trade value against the Commanders?

Part of the reason Daniels will need to put up big numbers is that Washington’s defense is a liability. The Commanders specifically struggle with keeping wide receivers from getting into open space. They have a defensive open score of 20 (on a 0-99 scale) in ESPN’s receiver scores, which is last among NFL teams.

This is a serious mismatch against Johnson, who is something of a poster child for open score. Johnson has a 64 open score this season, but he has recorded at least a 78 in every full season of his career and at least an 87 in all but one. And he’ll likely break out versus Washington cornerback Benjamin St-Juste, who has allowed 2.1 yards per coverage snap this season (the second most by an outside corner with at least 100 coverage snaps, according to NFL Next Gen Stats).

Johnson is in the last year of his deal and plays for a noncontender, which means he could be a major trade candidate. A big game against the Commanders will only help his value.

Can the Chiefs stuff San Francisco’s outside zone runs?

It’s no surprise outside zone runs make up 66% of Kyle Shanahan’s rushing plays — the second-highest rate behind the Falcons this season, per ESPN/NFL Next Gen Stats tracking. But the Chiefs are having success stopping these types of rushes in particular. They have allowed 2.7 yards per carry against outside zone runs (lowest).

Kansas City’s defensive line does a good job getting off its blocks to disrupt the run, while the linebackers, particularly Nick Bolton, are aggressive in driving toward the ball carrier. If the Chiefs can stifle the 49ers’ ground attack, they could have a major effect on what should be a close contest.

Will new Jets playcaller Todd Downing keep using Garrett Wilson on in-breakers after the Davante Adams trade?

I’m following up on a nugget I wrote about last week, when I highlighted how former offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett reduced Wilson’s usage on his best routes. That changed dramatically in Week 6 with Downing calling the plays.

Deep crossers, deep overs, medium crossers and digs made up just 9% of Wilson’s routes under Hackett in Weeks 1 through 5, but that rose by 20% against the Bills. The result was Wilson’s best game of the season (107 receiving yards and a touchdown on 10 targets). The question now is whether Wilson’s role gets complicated by the acquisition of Adams or Downing keeps Wilson moving laterally. We’ll get a first look against the Steelers on Sunday.

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Stephen A.: The Jets desperately needed to get Davante Adams

Stephen A. Smith explains why the Jets getting Davante Adams is a bigger deal than the Bills getting Amari Cooper.

Can Dexter Lawrence II disrupt the Eagles enough to steal a win?

This is mostly an excuse for me to talk about what Lawrence has done this season. He has seven sacks in six games, tied for second most in the league — while playing nose tackle. It’s so much harder to get that kind of production from his spot compared to other top sack leaders. Lawrence lines up in a 1-technique (between the center and guard) more than any other spot on the defensive line, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Since the start of 2023, 1-techniques record a sack on just 0.8% of their pass rushes. That number jumps up to 2.1% at the 9-technique, where edge rushers primarily align, meaning Lawrence’s production is roughly equivalent to an edge rusher reaching double-digits by now.

Could the Eagles stop him Sunday? The interior of the Eagles’ offensive line isn’t playing at its normal level. Center Cam Jurgens is solid in terms of pass block win rate (97%, sixth best), but Landon Dickerson (92%) and Mekhi Becton (90%) rank 30th and 43rd, respectively, out of 66 qualifiers at guard. They’ll have their hands full with Lawrence.

Moody: Five fantasy sleepers you need to pick up — and can start this week

Romeo Doubs, WR, Green Bay Packers (34.8% rostered)

Doubs delivered 19.9 fantasy points last week against the Cardinals, even with just four targets. He led all Packers receivers in offensive snaps and routes run. As Dontayvion Wicks deals with a shoulder injury, Doubs could see a bigger role. Wicks, Doubs and Christian Watson primarily play outside, while Jayden Reed operates in the slot. Doubs should stay busy in this Packers-Texans matchup.

Xavier Legette, WR, Carolina Panthers (28.2% rostered)

Legette saw four targets and finished with 11.3 fantasy points in Week 6 against the Falcons. He has now scored 11 or more points in two of his past three games despite seeing only 15 targets.

Legette dealt with a shoulder injury against the Bears in Week 5, but he should maintain a key role with Adam Thielen still on IR. This week, he faces a Commanders defense that has allowed the 10th-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers.

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Xavier Legette’s fantasy outlook for Week 7

Take a look at Xavier Legette’s fantasy stats as he prepares to face the Commanders in Week 7.

Hunter Henry, TE, New England Patriots (24.6% rostered)

Henry has been a reliable fantasy option, scoring 13.0 or more points in every game where he has had at least five targets. Leading the Patriots in routes run, he caught three of five targets for 41 yards and a touchdown against Houston last week.

He now faces the Jaguars, who rank in the top half of the league for two-high coverage, creating more space in the middle. The Jaguars also allow the third-highest yards per reception to tight ends, making Henry a strong play after Cole Kmet scored 24 fantasy points against them last week.

Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams (20.2% rostered)

Stafford has had a slow start to the season, averaging just 10.3 fantasy points per game. However, he has an excellent matchup coming out of the Rams’ Week 6 bye. Los Angeles faces a Raiders defense that has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to QBs.

He also might have Cooper Kupp back in the lineup. But if Kupp doesn’t play, Tutu Atwell and Jordan Whittington can still provide enough support to make Stafford a solid starter in deeper or superflex formats.

Drake Maye, QB, New England Patriots (11.1% rostered)

Maye delivered an exceptional performance in his first career start against the Texans last week, scoring 19.5 fantasy points despite a Patriots offensive line that ranks last in pass block win rate. He looked in sync with DeMario Douglas, Kayshon Boutte and the other playmakers on New England’s roster. Maye has a favorable matchup against a Jaguars defense that allows the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. He should be on your radar in superflex formats.

Bowen: Don’t be surprised if …

Kerby Joseph intercepts Sam Darnold

Darnold has thrown an interception in four of five games played this season. And his late decision-making on pass plays could open the door for the Lions’ secondary. Expect Joseph, a ball hawk with post and split-field range, to cash in Sunday. Joseph’s four interceptions are second in the league behind Xavier McKinney’s five.

Zach Ertz logs over 75 yards vs. Carolina

Ertz has yet to produce a game with over 70 receiving yards this season, but let’s play the matchup here against the Panthers’ defense. This season, Carolina is allowing 9.3 yards per attempt on throws inside the numbers, which is tied for the most in the league. Look for Commanders offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury to set up Ertz on seams and crossers.

Patrick Mahomes rushes for over 25 yards vs. San Francisco

Mahomes has logged over 25 rushing yards in only one game this season, but he has had five or more carries in three straight contests. With the 49ers’ ability to disrupt the pocket, Mahomes will be forced to move and play off-schedule. And he’s still one of the best scrambling quarterbacks in the league, especially in critical game situations.

Drake Maye runs for a touchdown in London

Last week, Maye rushed for 38 yards on five carries. And with the mobility to create outside of structure as a runner, I think Maye scores a touchdown on the ground — on a red zone scramble attempt — against the Jaguars. He ran for nine scores at North Carolina last season.

Ladd McConkey catches a touchdown vs. Arizona

McConkey has seen 15 targets over the past two games, including two in the end zone. Now he gets a matchup versus a Cardinals defense that has allowed 10 touchdown receptions on the season (tied for sixth most in the league). Bet on McConkey to score his third TD of the season Monday night.

Solak: Favorite upset pick for Week 7

Seattle Seahawks (+3) at Atlanta Falcons

The Seahawks have lost three straight games, but they’ve had a long week of rest, returned a few injured starters and look better than the Falcons by most advanced metrics. The Falcons have been sneaking wins by the skin of their teeth, but I think their lack of pass rush compared to Seattle’s fearsome front will make the difference in a shootout.

Expect the Seahawks to get running back Kenneth Walker III going early and take advantage of an immobile Kirk Cousins en route to a nice bounce-back win Sunday.

Fowler: What I’m hearing as we near kickoff

The Jets are preparing for Russell Wilson to start at quarterback for the Steelers this week. But even if Wilson does start, could Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin find a role for Justin Fields, who acquitted himself well through six games? The Jets have at least prepared for the possibility of a third-down/red zone package for Fields.

Meanwhile, the Steelers have shown interest in a potential trade for Jets receiver Mike Williams, who is on the block. Williams is open to finding a new home before the deadline, and Pittsburgh has basically scoured the Earth for receiver help in recent months. Any possible deal would have to wait until next week, due to the head-to-head matchup.

The Lions are doing their due diligence on the pass-rush market, looking for help replacing Aidan Hutchinson (tibia/fibula). For their matchup this week against Minnesota, they will roll with James Houston, Josh Paschal and new addition Isaiah Thomas off the edge. But Detroit has checked on the Haason Reddick situation. Browns defensive end Za’Darius Smith could also be a name to watch here. And teams have interest in Pats sub rusher Joshua Uche, too. While Reddick wants a new contract, Uche and Smith are on low-base salaries this year (Smith at $1.2 million, Uche at $1.3 million), which makes them quite tradeable.

Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson will be focused on quick decision-making and accuracy in his return from an oblique injury. But he will remain a running threat, despite the recent hits. While Richardson wanted to play last week, Indy decided to hold him out in part because it wanted to ensure that he could play his style to the full extent — that of a dual-threat passer.

What’s interesting is that the Colts are committed to maximizing Richardson’s enormous potential, so there’s no controversy here. But when you talk to opposing teams about the Colts over the past few weeks, they almost prefer Richardson to play against them over Joe Flacco, because of how hot Flacco can get as a passer. Regardless, the Colts want to see the Richardson experiment through. And the second-year player was making quick decisions from the pocket early in the Week 4 game that ultimately got him injured.

The Vikings remain optimistic about running back Aaron Jones (questionable, hamstring) potentially playing this week, but they want to see how he feels over the weekend. He has been part of the game plan, at least in the early stages. And as for tight end T.J. Hockenson (questionable, knee), my sense entering the week was a targeted Week 8 or Week 9 return. He had a productive week.

One issue: Neither player logged a full practice this week.

Rams receiver Cooper Kupp (ankle) is a true game-time decision. Coach Sean McVay usually tells the media on Fridays if a player is expected to go, but he did not go that far with Kupp. This could be close. Kupp fared well in practices this week, but the Rams are cautious with injuries to stars. They feel like they are still in it despite the 1-4 record. The primary issue is attrition, not some sort of team fracturing — and getting Kupp back will be the ultimate boost.