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    • NHC monitors Invest 94L, could become Tropical Storm Nadine near the Caribbean
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    NHC monitors Invest 94L, could become Tropical Storm Nadine near the Caribbean

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    A tropical depression could form late this week as Invest 94L makes its way into the Caribbean Sea, although chances of development have decreased slightly, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.

    Forecasters are also monitoring another tropical system, this one in the western Caribbean. Based on current conditions, it is expected to reach Central America this weekend, according to AccuWeather.

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    Invest 94L, which AccuWeather is calling a “tropical rain storm” to increase public awareness, could develop into a tropical storm or even a hurricane this weekend as it moves into an environment conducive to development.

    That development could be short-lived as it faces “more hostile conditions for reinforcement and organization,” said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s lead hurricane expert.

    The next named storms of the season are Nadine and Oscar.

    Here’s what we know from the centre’s latest advice.

    Will Invest94L become Tropical Storm Nadine?

    Special note about the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path from the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its effects, and the center of the storm is likely to move outside the cone up to 33% of the time.

    A broad low-pressure area, called Invest 94L, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean is producing unorganized showers and thunderstorms.

    This system is forecast to move generally westward to west-northwestward, and environmental conditions appear marginally conducive to gradual development during the latter part of this week.

    A tropical depression could form as the system approaches the Leeward and Virgin Islands late this week.

    • Formation opportunity for 48 hours: Low, 30 percent.
    • Training opportunity for 7 days: Average, 40 percent.

    “It is possible that the phenomenon will quickly grow into a tropical depression, tropical storm and hurricane as the core approaches or passes the Leeward Islands late this week,” DaSilva said.

    Invest in 94 liter spaghetti models

    Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations cover a range of forecasting tools and models, and they are not all the same. The hurricane center uses only the four or five best-performing models to help make its forecasts.

    NHC detects a new malfunction

    Western Caribbean Sea: Rain and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea are accompanied by a broad low-pressure area.

    Some gradual development is possible if the system remains above water as it moves slowly northwestward toward Central America.

    Regardless of the development, locally heavy rainfall is possible in parts of Central America later this week.

    • Formation opportunity for 48 hours: Low, 10 percent.
    • Training opportunity for 7 days: Low, 20 percent.

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