We took a small step back yesterday and went 1-1-1 with my Tuesday picks for -0.21 units, but not every day can be a winning day.

We continue with Wednesday’s NHL action and with only three games left to watch, I’ve nailed down a bet on each of them, including a bet on the Golden Knights to upset the Oilers in Edmonton. Let’s dive in.

Season record: 28-15-3 (+11.12 units)

Prediction of predators versus capitals

The Washington Capitals remain one of my favorite teams to bet on this season and I don’t think the market has adjusted correctly to how well they have played. They enter tonight ranked fourth in the NHL in expected 5-on-5 goal percentage. They will face a Predators team that ranks just 15th in that metric.

The most damning piece of evidence for the Predators is their inability to put the puck in the net. They connected on just 7.42% of shots on goal this season, the third-lowest percentage in the NHL. Meanwhile, the Capitals come in third, scoring on 14.11% of shots on target.

I’ll be backing the Caps as home favorites tonight.

Choose: uppercase -120

Red Wings vs. Blackhawks Prediction

The Red Wings and Blackhawks have been two of the worst offensive teams in the NHL this season. They enter tonight’s rankings at 27th and 32nd in 5-on-5 expected goals per 60 minutes of play. They are also scoring just 5.39 goals per 60 minutes between them this season, well below the set total of 6.5 for tonight’s match.

Bet this is a low scoring affair.

Choice: UNDER 6.5 (-124)

Golden Knights vs. Oilers prediction

The Oilers still have a lot of problems and the two main areas they are lacking are the Golden Knights’ strengths. First, the Oilers have the worst penalty kill in the NHL, allowing opponents to score on 40% of the power plays against them. Now they face the third-best power play unit in the NHL: the Golden Knights, who score a goal 32.26% of the time when they have the man advantage.

The second glaring discrepancy in this game is the shooting percentage. This is a game between one of the best shooting teams and one of the worst. The Golden Knights lead the league in overall shooting percentage, connecting on 15.13% of their shots on net. Meanwhile, the Oilers rank second in that statistic, shooting on just 7.14% of shots on goal, 7.99% worse than Edmonton.

For extra money I’ll jump over the Golden Knights.

Choice: Golden Knights +100

The odds are updated periodically and are subject to change.

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You can see all of Iain’s bets here!