Although most voters have made up their minds and the possibility of an October surprise is quickly disappearing, Hillsdale College professors said the presidential election is a toss-up depending on election integrity and narrow margins in swing states.

“The most likely swing states to switch to Trump appear to be, in descending order, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania,” said associate professor of politics Joseph Postell. “If Trump wins Michigan and Wisconsin, I have a feeling he will win most of the states mentioned above as well. The campaigns are spending a lot of time in Michigan and Pennsylvania, which shows how important these states are to the outcome.”

Among swing states, the election’s margin likely depends on Pennsylvania, Postell said.

“All roads seem to lead to Pennsylvania this year – it appears neither candidate can win without Pennsylvania,” he said. “I saw the results diverging in the Rust Belt states, with Michigan and Wisconsin going for Harris and Pennsylvania going for Trump. It seems possible, but less likely, that the same difference would occur with Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.”

Journalism teacher and general manager of WRFH Radio Free Hillsdale 101.7 FM Scot Bertram also said he thinks the race will be closest in the Rust Belt.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if Michigan and Wisconsin are two of the closest states, and maybe part ways,” Bertram said. “You know, one goes one way, one goes the other way. But I don’t think it will be a one-state race this time.”

Of the swing states, Bertram said Nevada would be least likely to flip.

“Nevada is the ‘Great White Whale.’ It always teases and never yields anything,” Bertram said. “There are a lot of different dynamics happening in Nevada, with population centers and union support, and that’s why I think Nevada will be too far out of reach for Trump and the Republicans again.”

Bertram said he thinks the election will be incredibly close.

“I don’t think it will be a hit. I don’t think it will be a 300-vote election victory,” Bertram said. “But it could be close – 290, 291 are, I think, realistic numbers.”

According to associate professor of politics Mark Kremer, Trump’s path to victory is simple.

“As long as the Democrats don’t cheat, I think Trump will win the election,” Kremer said.

Chris Netley, a sports studies lecturer, said the energy appears to be on former President Donald Trump’s side, noting the size and enthusiasm for his recent rally in Manhattan.

“There aren’t many artists who can sell out Madison Square Garden. And so it almost feels like now it’s almost become cool to be conservative, which is weird,” Netley said. “The Democrats used to be the rebel party against the status quo, but now, because the left wants to censor everything and take everything away, they have almost turned their party upside down.”

Although there is less than a week remaining until the election, Postell said he believes the margins of the outcome — whatever it may be — are likely set in stone.

“I don’t foresee any more ‘October surprises’, especially the planned ones, because so much early voting has already taken place in critical states,” Postell said. “Any major shakeup could come too late to change the outcome in close states. This is a new feature of the presidential election, so October surprises will now have to be ‘early October surprises’.”

When discussing the Senate races, Postell said different outcomes for political parties between different races are more common than you might think.

“Many voters love Trump individually, but do not translate support for Trump into support for other Republicans. The same thing happened with Obama: he was very popular individually, but the Democratic Party as a whole suffered heavy losses even when he was in the White House,” Postell said. “This suggests something I have believed in for years, which is that our political parties are much weaker than people usually think they are.”

Postell said he thinks Democrats can win the Senate.

“I think the Senate races in Michigan and Pennsylvania look very good for the Democrats. Ohio seems close, but I’m still willing to bet on Sherrod Brown winning that seat,” Postell said. “Those results would be revealing: Voters are still splitting their tickets, and Trump’s jackets are quite weak. Democratic Senate candidates are far ahead of Harris in many states – Arizona is especially revealing.”

Bertram said he believes split-ticket voting could apply to the Senate race in Michigan, a race he expects former Republican Congressman Mike Rogers to lose to Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin.

“I think Trump will stay ahead of Rogers by a point or two, and I think Michigan is a state that probably remains blue for the presidential race by the narrowest of margins,” Bertram said. “If that’s the case, I don’t think Rogers will go ahead of Trump. If Trump isn’t going to win Michigan, I don’t think Rogers is going to win the Senate race.”

Assistant professor of history Miles Smith said he believes Rogers has a fighting chance, and he is cautiously optimistic about the Republican Senate candidates in Pennsylvania and Ohio.

“Mike Rogers performed stronger than expected in Michigan’s Senate elections. I’m not sure if that puts him over the top,” Smith said. “If Trump wins in Pennsylvania, I expect McCormick to win. It seems likely that Moreno will win in Ohio.”

Laboratory director Doug Dobrozsi chose not to make predictions, citing the instability of our modern political environment.

“No prediction. It’s a fool’s game,” Dobrozsi said. “The most perennially reliable statistical forecasting methods failed in 2020. Recent history shows that anything can happen. I predict that there will still be surprises.”

He said the results of these elections will say a lot about the kind of country we are.

“I spend more time thinking about the truth in the saying that we get the leaders we deserve,” Dobrozsi said.