Prominent election analyst and statistician Nate Silver said former President Trump appears to be gaining momentum ahead of the election, calling the latest data “quite negative” for Vice President Kamala Harris in an update to his latest forecast on Sunday.

“The data remains quite negative for Kamala Harris,” Silver wrote on his Substack. “There are now three recent high-quality national polls showing Donald Trump leading – a difficult circumstance for Harris, given the Democrats’ Electoral College disadvantage – and her lead over our national polling average has fallen to 1.7 points . National polls have no impact the model is that bad, and the race remains essentially a toss-up, but it’s not hard to think of reasons why Trump could win.”

Silver pointed to a recent Fox News Poll showing Trump leading Harris in the presidential race 50%-48%, marking a reversal from last month when Harris had a narrow lead. The TIPP tracking poll, also cited by Silver, shows Trump overtaking Harris with a two-point lead, 49% to 47%.

FOX NEWS POLL: TRUMP FOR HARRIS BY TWO POINTS NATIONAL

Republican presidential candidate, former President Donald Trump, speaks while visiting a campaign office, Friday, Oct. 18, 2024, in Hamtranck, Michigan. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci) (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

Silver’s nuanced election forecast model shows Harris still with a narrow lead nationally, with the vice president at 48.9% and Trump at 47.2%, as of Sunday afternoon. But Trump, who stood at 46.5% in the Silver model last Sunday, appears to be gaining ground.

“I’m starting to see some Trump leaders in high-quality national polls, which is certainly not a good sign for Harris. A very close race though,” Silver wrote on X.

FOX NEWS POLL: TRUMP TAKES NATIONAL LEAD, HARRIS LEADS STATE STATES

The data guru, who revealed his plans to vote for Harris last month, expressed a similar sentiment in his Sunday morning newsletter, which he called “24 reasons why Trump could win.”

“Harris is the favorite to win the popular vote, but Electoral College bias favors Republicans by 2 percentage points. In an era of intense partisanship and close elections, this is inherently difficult for Democrats to overcome,” he said.

Democratic presidential candidate U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris speaks about the assassination of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar during a statement to the press at the University of Wisconsin – Milwaukee in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, on October 17, 2024. (Photo by SAUL LOEB/AFP) ( Photo by SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images) (SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images)

Other explanations on his list include inflation, higher prices under the Biden administration, immigration, declining trust in the media and Harris’ past record on policy.

POLLING GURU NATE SILVER REVEALS HE’S VOTING FOR KAMALA HARRIS

“The cultural atmosphere is shifting to the right and the left continues to pay a price for the excesses of 2020 on COVID, crime, ‘wokeness’ and other issues,” he mentions another potential factor.

Silver continued, “Harris ran far to the left in 2019, took many unpopular positions and doesn’t really have a viable strategy to explain her changing positions.”

“Harris has played on nerves and failed to articulate a clear vision for the country. It could have been a good strategy if the fundamentals favored her, but they don’t.”

Political analyst Mark Halperin says both Trump fans and Democratic voters studying polling data have told him that the Republican presidential candidate, former US President Donald Trump,’s chances of winning the presidency are increasing. (Photo by Michael Ciaglo/Getty Images)

The latest Fox News poll shows Harris with a six-point lead among voters from the top seven battleground states (within the margin of error for that subgroup), and the candidates each tied at 49% among voters in close counties (where the Biden -Trump The margin in 2020 was less than 10 points). Trump’s advantage comes from having a higher share of counties he won by more than 10 points (64%-35%) in 2020 than Harris does of counties Biden won by more than 10 points (58%-39%) .

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That raises the question of whether Democrats could win the Electoral College and lose the national popular vote at the same time. In 2000 and 2016, it was the Republican candidate who lost the popular vote but won the Electoral College.

Fox News’ Dana Blanton contributed to this report.