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Prominent election guru Nate Silver reveals latest prediction
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Prominent election guru Nate Silver reveals latest prediction

Renowned election guru Nate Silver called the race for the White House a “pure toss-up” Sunday as he gave former President Donald Trump a slight lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in his latest prediction.

Silver’s model shows Trump has a 51.5% chance of reaching the Electoral College, while Harris has a 48.1% chance, according to a Substack post on Sunday morning, Mediate reported.

“(New York Times) state polls good for Harris, but not great. Morning Consult is swinging in state polls, good for Trump, but not great,” Silver tweeted on Sunday.

“It’s a pure toss-up.”


Former President Trump waves to supporters at the end of a campaign rally at Kinston Regional Jetport in North Carolina.
Former President Trump waves to supporters at the end of a campaign rally at Kinston Regional Jetport in North Carolina. Getty Images

The Times/Siena College swing state poll showed the two candidates still in a dead heat in the nation’s seven battleground states with Election Day two days away.

Harris has slight leads in Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin and Trump has a clearer lead in Arizona, the poll shows. The couple is essentially bonded in Michigan and Pennsylvania.

The Morning Consult poll shows Trump with razor-thin leads in Georgia, North Carolina and Wisconsin, while tied in Arizona and Pennsylvania, Forbes reported.

The new set of polls comes after the Des Moines Register on Saturday revealed surprising findings from famed pollster J. Ann Selzer, showing Harris outpacing Trump in Iowa by 47% to 44% in the usually reliably red state.

Silver wrote that the Selzer investigation “is unlikely to matter” in deciding who wins the presidency anyway. But he noted that Harris’ backers should be happy with the shocking result.


Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a campaign rally at Jenison Field House on the campus of Michigan State University.
Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a campaign rally at Jenison Field House on the campus of Michigan State University. Getty Images

“I think Harris voters are quite pleased with the Selzer poll,” Silver wrote, according to Mediaite.

“At the very least, it confirms that in the final wave of polls, there will be plenty of numbers from high-quality pollsters supporting a Harris win — along with about an equal number of numbers implying a Trump victory.

“If Trump had ‘momentum’ in October, it’s now gone in November,” Silver added. “And we will very likely start Tuesday night with a race that is really a toss-up race, not leaning or tilting toward Trump.”

The national polling average released by Silver on Sunday morning showed Harris ahead of Trump 48.5% to 47.6%. But he cautioned that his model isn’t too concerned with national polls at this stage.

In the swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, Silver’s polling average gives Trump a small lead, while Harris has a large lead in Michigan and Wisconsin.