close
close

first Drop

Com TW NOw News 2024

    • PTC 8 lashes the Carolinas as Gordon remains far out to sea » Yale Climate Connections
    news

    PTC 8 lashes the Carolinas as Gordon remains far out to sea » Yale Climate Connections

    Vaseline Posted on

    While Potential Tropical Cyclone 8 struggled to make a name for itself off the southeast coast of the U.S. on Monday, it brought tropical storm-like conditions to the North Carolina coast. Satellite imagery and reconnaissance flights showed PTC 8 tangled in a persistent front that stretched the circulation and prevented it from becoming a clear, symmetrical low.

    At 11:00 a.m. EDT, the elongated, poorly defined center of PTC 8 was located nearly 100 miles east of Charleston, South Carolina, and moving north-northwest at 5 mph. Nearly all of PTC 8’s stronger showers and thunderstorm activity (convection) were concentrated well to the north of the center over and near the coast of eastern North Carolina and in a separate area well offshore. Sustained winds were 50 mph, more than strong enough to make PTC 8 a tropical or subtropical storm. However, because PTC 8 was structured more as a frontal or coastal storm than a non-frontal cyclone, the National Hurricane Center had not yet named it. The likelihood was increasing that PTC 8 would make landfall in South Carolina Monday night without ever becoming Tropical or Subtropical Storm Helene.

    Regardless of PTC 8’s status, Carolina residents felt its presence Monday, especially on the northern edge of the system, toward the southern North Carolina coast from Wilmington to Cape Fear. A small area of ​​low pressure and an intense band of thunderstorms moved inland near Wilmington around noon, with wind gusts of 45 mph reported there at 8:52 a.m. EDT.

    https://twitter.com/NWSWilmingtonNC/status/1835703106681909384

    As PTC 8 struggles ashore and weakens, the heaviest rainfall and strongest winds will continue to move across the region through early Tuesday, possibly reaching six to eight inches in a few areas. Local amounts could be even higher, as evidenced by a cluster of totals of more than 10 inches recorded by weather stations on Bald Head Island, which juts out into the Atlantic Ocean just south of Wilmington.

    As of noon EDT on Monday, the North Carolina Climate Service’s Bald Head Island Club mesonet station had picked up 15.03 inches in the previous 24 hours. Further inland, the highest two-day rainfall totals from the CoCoRaHS volunteer observing network through Monday morning included 3.61 inches near Morehead City, North Carolina, and 3.5 inches just northeast of Wilmington. The torrential rains combined with storm surge (see below) to cause flooding of more than three feet in Carolina Beach, North Carolina.

    No major flooding is expected at PTC 8 as water levels are near normal across eastern North Carolina. However, some flash flooding is possible where there are localized downpours.

    Storm surge PTC 8 moved across the coast Sunday and Monday. Moderate flooding was reported in Charleston Harbor at high tide Sunday afternoon, and minor flooding was occurring or forecast for Monday afternoon and evening along the coast from Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, to Beaufort, North Carolina. Peak storm surge could produce one to three feet of flooding in a Storm Surge Warning area that extended from the South Santee River, South Carolina, to Oregon Inlet, North Carolina, including well inland along the Pamlico, Pungo, Neuse and Bay rivers in southeastern North Carolina.

    Minor to moderate coastal flooding remains possible far north along the Mid-Atlantic coast over the next several days as PTC 8 moves inland and continued landward flow combines with astronomical tsunamis.

    Disappointing Gordon holds its ground as a tropical depression; no more news in the Atlantic this week?

    Tropical Depression Gordon, which was downgraded from minimal tropical storm status on Sunday, is holding steady in the remote eastern tropical Atlantic. As of 11 a.m. EDT Monday, a patchy convective zone remains concentrated east of Gordon’s low-level center, which is partially exposed at times. Sustained winds were 35 mph, and Gordon was nearly 1,000 miles east of the Leeward Islands, moving west at 7 mph. An approaching upper-level trough will begin to drag Gordon northward by midweek, and it could regain tropical storm strength, but Gordon poses no threat to land areas.

    According to the National Hurricane Center’s Tropical Weather Outlook released Monday at 2 p.m. ET, no new storms of concern appear likely to form in the Atlantic over the next seven days. On average, over the past few decades (1991-2020), the seventh, eighth, and ninth named storms have all developed before Sept. 22, so if we make it to next Sunday without an eighth named storm (assuming PTC 8 doesn’t become Helene), the Atlantic would be well off its usual climatological pace. As of Sunday, Sept. 15, real-time data from Colorado State University showed the 2024 season was also behind the 1991-2020 pace for hurricane days (13.25 versus the average of 15.2) and accumulated cyclone energy (61 versus the average of 71.9). This week’s activity won’t be enough to prevent the 2024 season from falling even further behind on these metrics. That is certainly a welcome development for coastal residents, but also a notable and confusing one given the many predictions for a hyperactive Atlantic season in 2024.

    After this week, the GFS and European ensemble models are moving closer to the possibility of a system developing in the western Caribbean and moving northward into the Gulf of Mexico later next week. However, it is still far too early to be certain of any details.

    Jeff Masters contributed to this post.

    We help millions of people understand climate change and what they can do about it. Help us reach even more people like you.

    Vaseline
    View all posts

    You Might Also Like