My first job at ESPN — a long, long time ago — was as the NFC East blogger. This was back when we had a different writer assigned to each of the eight divisions, as opposed to each of the 32 NFL teams. It taught me a lot about the way the league is structured and the way fans of specific teams view it — fans can get myopic about the division in which their team plays. They certainly get protective.

So each year, as a way of stirring up some of that divisional pride, I like to rank the eight divisions against each other as we get close to the start of the season. I start with our Football Power Index (FPI) ratings as a guide, but I try to look into the places where the FPI might turn out to be off — including injuries/depth concerns, a coaching staff change or just a good, old-fashioned difference of opinion — and I reserve the right to pivot off the FPI rankings on my own list.

Last year, the FPI rated the AFC East far and away as the top division, and so did I. But neither I nor the FPI foresaw Aaron Rodgers’ injury or how dismal the Patriots would be in what turned out to be Bill Belichick’s final season in New England. The AFC North ranked fourth in the FPI last year, but I rated it second and was, I believe, vindicated when all four of that division’s teams finished with winning records (and three of them made the playoffs).

Let’s get to it. I present my 2024 preseason division rankings.

Jump to a division …
AFC: East | West | North | South
NFC: East | West | North | South

1. AFC North

Combined FPI rating: 8.6 overall

1. Baltimore Ravens: 4.8 (3rd in NFL)

2. Cincinnati Bengals: 3.3 (7th)

3. Cleveland Browns: 0.5 (14th)

4. Pittsburgh Steelers: 0.0 (17th)

My 2023 preseason ranking: No. 2 overall

Yeah, we’ll go with the division in which every team had a winning record last season and none has a negative FPI rating heading into 2024. I disagree a bit with the order within the division, but I do think this is the division that has the best chance of being the first ever to put all four of its teams in the postseason. (To be clear, I am not predicting that this will happen, merely saying this is the division with the best chance.)

The FPI is higher on Baltimore than I am, mainly because I have concerns about the Ravens’ ability to seamlessly replace three offensive line starters and all of the coaches and players they’ve lost on defense. Quarterback Lamar Jackson finished the 2023 season healthy and, history tells us, if he can do that again the Ravens will be contenders — and he may well be MVP. But given all of the changes and the challenges of playing a first-place schedule (while the Bengals get to play a fourth-place one), I have at least some concern that the Ravens could take a step back — or at least need some time to find its footing. A big part of their FPI rating is a league-best 1.9 on defense, and I think that number assumes a lot from the young players and coaches who need to step up.

Cincinnati ranks ninth in the league with an offensive FPI of 2.4, which obviously assumes a return to consistent full health from quarterback Joe Burrow and a return to the lineup for disgruntled star wideout Ja’Marr Chase. The Bengals are also likely to benefit from playing the league’s seventh-easiest schedule (per the FPI) while division rivals face the ninth-, eighth- and third-toughest.

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Which AFC North QB is under the most pressure?

The “First Take” crew goes back and forth on which quarterback in the AFC North is under the most pressure this season.

I’m actually higher on the Browns than the FPI, which ranks them as the second-best defense in the league but the 23rd-best offense. Maybe it’s offseason optimism, but I think the changes they’re making on offense are going to be significant and beneficial for Deshaun Watson, even though their annual offensive tackle crisis is happening early this year.

If anyone but Mike Tomlin were coaching the Steelers, I’d be a lot lower on them. The FPI ranks them as the 19th-best offense in the league, which feels a little bit generous based on what we’ve seen from quarterbacks Russell Wilson and Justin Fields so far in camp (not to mention the past couple of years). But they made the playoffs last year with Kenny Pickett and Mason Rudolph playing that position, and T.J. Watt leads a defense ranked fifth in the league per the FPI, so who am I to doubt?

2. NFC West

Combined FPI rating: 2.4 overall

1. San Francisco 49ers: 5.1 (1st in NFL)

2. Los Angeles Rams: 0.9 (13th)

3. Seattle Seahawks: minus-1.2 (21st)

4. Arizona Cardinals: minus-2.4 (23rd)

My 2023 preseason ranking: No. 5 overall

Here’s where I go off FPI script, since the NFC North actually has a better combined FPI ranking than the NFC West. I’m a little higher on the non-San Francisco teams in this division than the FPI. It obviously adores the 49ers, who rank first in the offensive metric and sixth in defense. And assuming the Niners get the Brandon Aiyuk situation, the Trent Williams situation and the Christian McCaffrey calf injury figured out, sure, they should be one of the best teams in the league again. But that’s a lot of really important situations! I’m a little more concerned about the 49ers at the moment than consensus seems to be.

Which brings me to the Rams, who land a surprisingly low 12th on offense and 20th on defense, according to the FPI. The Rams were one of the surprise playoff teams last season, in what looked like it would be a rebuilding year. And while the loss of the legendary Aaron Donald from the defense is certainly not to be overlooked, Sean McVay/Matthew Stafford is a coach/quarterback combination that shouldn’t be underrated. If the Niners do struggle with injuries or whatever, I actually believe the Rams could push them for the division title.

The Seahawks are a bit underrated, too. Not enough people seem eager to acknowledge how well Geno Smith has played at quarterback over his two seasons as their starter, and it’s possible they found something special in new coach Mike Macdonald. If nothing else, I firmly believe he’ll field a solid defense.

And the Cardinals? Well, the FPI and I agree that there is considerable reason to worry about Arizona’s defense, which it ranks 29th. But a fully healthy Kyler Murray and the addition of first-round wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. should make them better offensively than 21st. From Week 10 (when Murray returned from his injury) to the end of last season, the Cardinals were top 10 in yards per game and second in the league in rushing yards per game. Adding Harrison to the mix should boost the passing game. This team could score a sneaky number of points.

3. NFC North

Combined FPI rating: 3.8 overall

1. Detroit Lions: 4.0 (4th in NFL)

2. Green Bay Packers: 2.6 (10th)

3. Chicago Bears: minus-0.3 (19th)

4. Minnesota Vikings: minus-2.5 (25th)

My 2023 preseason ranking: No. 6 overall

Again, I want to stress that I don’t think any less of this division than the FPI does. We have the Lions, who had a 17-point lead on the road in the NFC Championship Game and were a bounce or two away from reaching last year’s Super Bowl. They’re bringing back more or less the same cast, plus a bunch of new faces in the defensive secondary, which was their weakness last season. The FPI has them third in the league in offense and 12th in defense, and I would submit that they have plenty of upside on defense if the talented new parts in the secondary click.

There are plenty of people around the league who think the Packers actually will win this division, and I certainly wouldn’t be surprised if that happened. The FPI ranks Green Bay sixth in offense and 17th in defense, and it’s possible it is too low on the Packers in both categories. You have to nitpick if you’re going to choose between Detroit and Green Bay, and I have two things that make me hesitate.

One, the defense is brand new, with coordinator Jeff Hafley coming in from college to install a new scheme for players who probably underachieved in the previous one. That could take time to come together. Two, Jordan Love and all of his pass catchers are still very young players, and young players don’t always progress in a straight upward line. Could they? Absolutely. But I’m looking for a tiebreaker here, and that’s one that makes me lean toward the Lions over the course of a full season.

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Packers or Lions: Who will win the NFC North?

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I’m as fired up as anybody east of Lake Michigan about Caleb Williams, based on everything I’ve heard and seen so far, but I have some concerns about Chicago’s offensive and defensive lines that make me hesitant to put Chicago in the playoffs in his rookie year. As for the Vikings, this is the best situation in which Sam Darnold has ever found himself, and I believe in coach Kevin O’Connell’s ability to get the best out of him. But it’s a stretch to think Minnesota’s offense will function the way it did with Kirk Cousins. The FPI has only five offenses ranked worse than Minnesota’s unit, which does feel a little harsh though.

4. AFC South

Combined FPI rating: minus-0.2 overall

1. Houston Texans: 3.0 (9th in NFL)

2. Jacksonville Jaguars: 0.1 (16th)

3. Indianapolis Colts: minus-0.4 (20th)

4. Tennessee Titans: minus-2.9 (27th)

My 2023 preseason ranking: No. 7 overall

This is another one where I’m kind of out on a limb, picking the AFC South ahead of the AFC East (which has a higher overall FPI rating and three teams rated in the FPI top 12). But let’s break it down.

Start with the Texans, who added a bunch of firepower on both sides of the ball in an effort to build on the excitement and success of C.J. Stroud’s rookie season. The FPI has them 10th in offense and ninth in defense, and it’s not hard to imagine them finishing better than that in both categories. The only things that give me any pause on Houston is that it has the fourth-hardest schedule per the FPI and the fact that the rest of this division is solid.

You only have to go back to November to find yourself in a world where the Jaguars were runaway favorites in this division and one of the up-and-coming teams in the AFC. Improved line play and a healthier Trevor Lawrence should set Doug Pederson’s bunch back on track after things fell apart in the second half of last season.

The team I like a lot more than most people is the Colts, who played a division title game against the Texans in Week 18 last season with Gardner Minshew at quarterback and are getting 2023 No. 4 pick Anthony Richardson back from injury this year. Coach Shane Steichen was a breakout star last season, and Richardson should allow him to do a lot more with his offense than he could do with Minshew. The FPI rates the Colts 18th in offense and 19th in defense, but there’s upside in both spots; I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the Colts won the AFC South.

It’s easy to write off the Titans after last season and with a first-year coach in place, but they built up their roster a lot this offseason, and if Brian Callahan can iron out the wrinkles in Will Levis’ game, they could be a tougher team to play than expected. The FPI has them 26th in offense and 25th in defense, so expectations couldn’t be a lot lower. There’s a chance Callahan and Levis are both pretty good.

5. AFC East

Combined FPI rating: 1.4 overall

1. Buffalo Bills: 3.7 (5th in NFL)

2. Miami Dolphins: 2.1 (11th)

3. New York Jets: 1.2 (12th)

4. New England Patriots: minus-5.6 (31st)

My 2023 preseason ranking: No. 1 overall

Could the FPI be overrating all four of these teams? It’s possible. The Bills will still be good despite the veteran roster purge they underwent this offseason, but I can’t go so far as to rank them the fifth-best team in the league. You could make a case for any of the five teams immediately behind them in the rankings to have better seasons — and that still wouldn’t rule out the Bills winning their fifth AFC East title in a row.

Miami has major question marks on defense until it gets its injured pass rushers back to full strength. And let’s be honest, we need to see the Dolphins finish off a season and cash in their traditionally hot start with a division title before we can fully believe in the program down there. The range of potential outcomes with the Jets is as vast as with any team in the league. They could be a conference title contender or a third-place wreck, and neither would qualify as a huge surprise.

And the Patriots might be the worst team in the league. The FPI has them 31st in offense and 27th in defense, and losing Christian Barmore and Matthew Judon from their defensive front makes that defense ranking feel kind of generous.

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6. NFC East

Combined FPI rating: minus-0.6 overall

1. Dallas Cowboys: 3.5 (6th in NFL)

2. Philadelphia Eagles: 3.1 (8th)

3. Washington Commanders: minus-3.5 (28th)

4. New York Giants: minus-3.7 (29th)

My 2023 preseason ranking: No. 4 overall

The FPI seems to agree with the consensus that this is a two-team race, though it’s clearly unaware of the fact that no team has repeated as NFC East champ in 20 years, meaning the Cowboys cannot possibly win it this season. It has Dallas rated seventh on offense and 10th on defense, but the contract situations with Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb, the lack of depth at running back and wide receiver, and the changes that will accompany new defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer on that side of the ball all bring plenty of questions that need to be answered.

The Eagles, meanwhile, have nowhere to go but up after last season’s collapse. New coordinators on both sides of the ball have to be improvements over what they had there last season, and better health from quarterback Jalen Hurts could be all the offense needs to recover. There’s a little bit of concern over the loss of veteran center Jason Kelce, but it’s not like the Eagles haven’t been preparing for that for a number of years now.

Washington, I think, might be a little bit underrated as a potential sleeper. Rookie QB Jayden Daniels has enough skill and enough college experience that no one would be shocked if he was really good right out of the gate. He has a good group of receivers and running backs, and while the offensive line has one big question mark at left tackle, it should be capable enough otherwise. Linebacker Bobby Wagner and coach Dan Quinn should help get the most out of what the Commanders have on defense. I’m not calling them a Super Bowl contender, but the impact of Daniels could be greater than what the FPI has accounted for by ranking them 29th on offense.

The Giants … man, I don’t know. The defensive line should be really good, and they’ll probably pile up sacks with Brian Burns, Kayvon Thibodeaux and Dexter Lawrence II. But the secondary looks like a major problem, and as exciting as rookie receiver Malik Nabers is, I’m finding it tough to see how the Giants are going to score points. They probably deserve their ranking, and coach Brian Daboll and QB Daniel Jones are going to have to replicate some of that 2022 magic if they’re going to outperform it.

7. AFC West

Combined FPI rating: minus-2.6 overall

1. Kansas City Chiefs: 5.0 (2nd in NFL)

2. Los Angeles Chargers: minus-0.2 (18th)

3. Las Vegas Raiders: minus-2.5 (24th)

4. Denver Broncos: minus-4.9 (30th)

My 2023 preseason ranking: No. 3 overall

You have to have three rough-looking teams to rank seventh out of eight divisions when you also have the two-time defending Super Bowl champs. But here we are with the AFC West.

Can the Chiefs repeat last season’s defensive performance? The FPI ranks them eighth there, which feels about right. But even if they don’t replicate what they did there in 2023, the offense has to be better than it was. The FPI agrees, ranking it behind only San Francisco’s unit. We don’t need to spend a lot of time figuring out whether the Chiefs are good. The Chiefs are good.

I was a little surprised to see the Chargers rated as high as they are in the FPI, given everything they’ve lost personnel-wise this offseason, but Jim Harbaugh tends to field competitive programs wherever he is coaching. The FPI has them 22nd on defense and 13th on offense, the latter of which is most shocking. Justin Herbert is currently injured, and his top two receivers are gone.

The Raiders just announced Gardner Minshew will open the season as their starting quarterback after winning an uninspiring camp battle with Aidan O’Connell. The Maxx Crosby-led defense has a chance to be better than its No. 26 FPI ranking, but as we said with the Giants, it’s tough to figure out how this team is going to score points. And the Broncos, in Sean Payton’s second season, feel like the rebuildiest of rebuilds. I’m sure they’ll go with rookie Bo Nix as the starting QB, but they just don’t look like they have enough good players in enough key spots to be a factor.

8. NFC South

Combined FPI rating: minus-10.9 overall

1. Atlanta Falcons: 0.2 (15th in NFL)

2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: minus-1.8 (22nd)

3. New Orleans Saints: minus-2.6 (26th)

4. Carolina Panthers: minus-6.7 (32nd)

My 2023 preseason ranking: No. 8 overall

The Falcons are the only NFC South team with a positive FPI rating, thanks to the addition of Kirk Cousins at QB and recent moves for Justin Simmons and Matthew Judon on defense. Atlanta appears to have what it needs on offense to be a division contender, but there are questions on defense. And honestly, there’s a chance the whole Cousins/Michael Penix Jr. fiasco from the spring is going to hang over the Falcons after every loss. Would I be surprised if this team was good? Absolutely not. What it boils down to is that I continue to be puzzled by the Falcons’ process and decision-making, and I need to see it all come together before I believe in them with any confidence.

Meanwhile, the perennially underrated Buccaneers, who have won this division three years in a row, rank second here per the FPI, which has them 22nd in offense and 21st in defense. They return basically the same group that went 9-8 to claim this yucky division last season, and I can’t rule out the possibility that they win it again if Atlanta is dealing with dysfunction and/or struggling to stop opposing offenses.

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The Saints could end up being the worst team in the league. Their offensive line is a total mess, which is especially bad when Derek Carr is your quarterback. They’re aging in a bunch of places, including running back and at every level of the defense. The coaching staff hasn’t proved anything. I understand rating them ahead of the Panthers, but it’s not difficult to imagine the bottom falling out in New Orleans and these Saints finishing last in the division, conference or even entire league.

Speaking of the Panthers, they hired Dave Canales away from the Bucs to be their coach and help do with 2023 first overall pick Bryce Young what he did with Baker Mayfield in Tampa Bay last year. There’s nowhere to go but up with Carolina, but the direction isn’t as much the problem as the distance. The FPI rates the Panthers last in offense and defense, both by fairly healthy margins. Adding Diontae Johnson and Xavier Legette on offense should help Young, and the offensive line has to play better than it did in 2023. So the Panthers should have a better offense, but that’s a really low bar — and Jadeveon Clowney aside, the defense looks pretty bereft.