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    • Ruben Gallego is doing better than other swing-state Democrats
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    Ruben Gallego is doing better than other swing-state Democrats

    Vaseline Posted on

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    By several measures, Democrat Ruben Gallego appears to have performed better compared to Vice President Kamala Harris than four major Senate candidates in presidential swing states.

    Gallego’s improved reputation among Arizona voters is more than a mirror image of Republican Kari Lake’s relatively weak appeal to Republican voters and will draw additional attention as Democrats consider their future after an electoral drubbing.

    Gallego, a five-term member of Congress, received about 5.6% more votes than Harris in Arizona, based on unofficial results Friday evening.

    In Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Democratic Senate candidates each received about the same number of votes as Harris.

    Gallego’s additional appeal is at least partly due to Lake’s noticeably weaker position among Republican voters. So far, she has captured 90.4% of President-elect Donald Trump’s vote share.

    In the same four other states, only Sam Brown of Nevada rivaled Lake in drawing votes. In Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, the Republican candidate received about 96% of Trump’s vote share.

    But there is at least one more aspect to Gallego’s relatively better reputation among voters. Republicans in the other states were likely stymied by third-party alternatives in a way that did not exist in Arizona.

    The only other option on the ballot in the Arizona Senate race was Eduardo Quintana of the Green Party.

    Green Party candidates generally appeal to left-leaning voters, who are more likely to vote for Democrats if they vote for a major party candidate.

    As of Friday evening, Quintana had won just over 2% of the vote.

    Quintana may have benefited from $342,000 in spending by a shadowy Texas-based organization called the Progressive Century Project, which split its spending in favor of Quintana and against Gallego. No mention was made of Lake.

    For example, in an October mailer, the organization described Gallego as “Pro-Israel, Pro-Genocide, Pro-War” and urged voters to “end the genocide in Palestine,” a message intended to appeal to left-wing voters.

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    In a post on social media, Quintana rejected the support and tactics.

    “We were not aware of these mailers, and my campaign did not authorize or approve them,” he wrote. “As a #GreenParty candidate, I reject and repudiate all support from super PACs and dark money.”

    In contrast, there were apparently greater headwinds for GOP candidates from third-party picks in the other four states.

    In Pennsylvania, a Libertarian Senate candidate received at least 88,000 votes, about 1.3%. Libertarians typically appeal to conservative voters who may vote Republican in the same way that Green Party candidates pull away from Democrats.

    The Constitution Party is considered a far-right group that is similarly pulling away from the Republican Party, if anything. The Senate candidate in Pennsylvania received at least 23,000 votes, or 0.3%.

    The Greens in Pennsylvania received at least 64,000 votes, nearly half of the total of the Libertarian and Constitutional nominees.

    Republican Dave McCormick is the projected winner in Pennsylvania, defeating incumbent U.S. Sen. Bob Casey Jr., D-Pa. McCormick received 96% of Trump’s winning votes there, and Casey received 99% of Harris’ total votes.

    In Michigan, U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin, D-Mich., narrowly defeated former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Mich., and may also have received at least some help from third-party alternatives.

    Candidates from the Libertarian and American Taxpayers parties combined to receive 98,000 votes in the Michigan Senate race. A candidate from the Green Party received 54,000, while the far-left candidate from the Natural Law Party received almost 19,000.

    In Wisconsin, U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis., narrowly held off Republican Eric Hovde by about 29,000 votes.

    The Progressive Century Project, which was active in the Arizona Senate race, also spent $247,000 opposing Baldwin in his only other expenditures.

    But Baldwin also benefited from a libertarian independent and a conservative candidate from the America First Party, who together received 71,000 votes. There were no other third party options in that race.

    And in Nevada there was a completely different option.

    That state uniquely includes a “none of these candidates” option that drew nearly 41,000 votes in the Nevada Senate race.

    The state also had a Libertarian and an Independent American Party candidate, whose website notes she once received the Conservative of the Year award and notes her advocacy for homeschooling. Her credentials show she appealed to potential Republican voters.

    Together, these candidates received 39,000 votes. Combined with the “none” option, Nevadans had 80,000 votes, which likely shifted more from the Republican party than from the Democrats.

    Incumbent U.S. Sen. Jacky Rosen, D-Nev., defeated Republican Sam Brown and led by about 21,000 votes on Saturday.

    Vaseline
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