Nowadays you can’t avoid Christmas decorations when you go to the store.

It’s a sure sign that winter is just around the corner, so it’s not too early to start looking ahead to what could potentially be a very different winter in Metro Detroit this year than last year. What does that mean?

Last winter was dominated by El Niño and ended up being the warmest on record. But this year, a weak La Niñas was expected to develop. We have not yet transitioned into a La Niña pattern, but there is a 60% chance that this will happen in November and possibly last until early spring, impacting temperatures and precipitation.

It is important to point out that La Niña is a natural climate pattern, and its effects on our region are more noticeable during the winter months. Normally, a La Niña would bring us above-average precipitation and near-average temperatures.

However, there is a slight difference in what the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) seasonal outlook projects. Similar to La Niña, it looks like we will see an overall pattern of wetter weather. The difference is in the temperature.

The CPC predicts a slightly warmer than average winter. Last winter’s warmth had a significant effect on our snowfall or lack thereof. We will have to wait and see whether temperatures will lead to rain or snowfall this winter.

It is still unclear how strong La Niña will become and that certainly matters. The weaker it is, the more it has to deal with other weather and climate factors that could ultimately have a more dominant impact.

For example, while snowstorms affecting the entire region appear to be decreasing, lake effect snowfall around the Great Lakes is increasing and that may be related to the lack of ice cover on the lakes during the winter with the warmer winter temperatures that we have experienced. experienced.

How does all this relate to the Farmers’ Almanac? The 208th edition of the almanac says Michigan should prepare for a “wet winter whirlwind” during the 2024-2025 winter season. Although the Almanac claims an accuracy rate of 80%, studies show that it is only 52% accurate. You can be the judge!

No two La Niña winters are the same, but many have temperature and precipitation trends in common due to the behavior of the jet stream.