• WR Nico Collins, Houston Texans — more than 5.5 receptions: Before his injury in Week 5, Nico Collins was performing at an elite level, averaging 3.50 yards per route and earning a league-leading PFF grade of 92.4. Since the start of the 2023 season, his 92.7 grade remains the highest among all NFL wide receivers, highlighting his ability to change the game.

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Estimated reading time: 3 minutes

Game overview

Monday Night Football heads to Texas for a showdown between a Texans team looking to bounce back from a rough start in November and a Cowboys team in freefall after four straight losses.

Of Dak Prescott Dallas was sidelined this season due to a hamstring injury Cooper Rush in Week 10. The already struggling offense, led by a limited quarterback, faced an aggressive Eagles defense, resulting in a disastrous performance. Rush managed just 45 passing yards, averaged 2.0 yards per attempt, and earned a PFF grade of 40.8.

This week’s game is eerily similar to last week’s, when Dallas was also a 7-point home favorite but lost to Philadelphia by 28 points. That loss marked the Cowboys’ fourth straight coverage failure, dropping them to a dismal 2-7 against the spread – good for the second-worst coverage percentage in the NFL (22.2%).

Things have been unsettled in Houston as well, with the Texans dropping three of their last four games due to a mix of injuries and lackluster performances. In Sunday night’s loss to the Lions, the Texans’ defense forced a whopping five interceptions but received little support from the offense, leaving the team scoreless in the second half.

Despite the loss in Week 10, the Texans managed to hold their own as underdogs and improve to 4-2 against the spread since early October. Much of their recent competitiveness can be attributed to a stout defense, which has posted the NFL’s fifth-best EPA per game over that stretch.

Attacking struggles, combined with their strong defensive play, has resulted in seven unders improving their match total in ten games this season.

WR Nico Collins, Houston Texans: More than 5.5 Receptions (+105)

Not for players’ contributions as a discount Tank Dell, Dalton SchultzAnd John Metchie IIIwho have performed admirably Nico Collins‘ absence, but this Texans offense takes on a completely different dynamic with a truly elite receiver on the field.

Before his injury in Week 5, Collins was performing at a dominant level, averaging 3.50 yards per route and posting a league-best PFF grade of 92.4. Since the start of the 2023 season, his 92.7 rating ranks at the top of all NFL receivers, underscoring how impactful he is as a game-changer in the Texans’ offense.

During his time on the pitch this season, Collins led the team in threat percentage (27.2%) and saw 44 goals in just four full games. That heavy involvement translated into six or more receptions on three of those outings, making him a reliable and explosive option at quarterback C.J. Stroud.

Collins’ return poses a significant challenge for a struggling Cowboys secondary that ranks 31st in team coverage grade (49.1). While Dallas has had the fewest passing attempts in the league this season, their inability to limit explosive play remains a glaring problem. They rank 29th in preventing receptions of more than 15 yards, allowing such plays on 16.1% of their coverage targets. This is exactly the kind of matchup that Stroud and Collins can exploit, setting the stage for a long day for the Cowboys defensive backfield.