In this analysis, I use TipRanks’ Stock Comparison Tool to closely examine three leading AI investment opportunities. While Nvidia (NVDA) has delivered an impressive five-year return of 2,524%, compared to less than 200% for Microsoft (MSFT) and Google (GOOGL), I’m not convinced at this stage it’s the best long-term choice. Microsoft and Google, on the other hand, offer greater stability in the medium to long term. That’s why I’m more optimistic about these established Big Tech giants than I am about the newer AI-focused semiconductor player Nvidia.

Nvidia stock is trading on borrowed time

I’m currently neutral on Nvidia, even though it has delivered remarkable returns in recent years. Nvidia has experienced nearly 200% year-over-year revenue growth over the past twelve months and a net profit margin of 55% (up from a five-year average of 31.4%). While 2025 is expected to be strong, with the new Blackwell GPU already sold out, the company is approaching a potential turning point. Those familiar with semiconductor investing will recognize its cyclical nature.

While it’s uncertain when Nvidia will see a drop in sales, I think it’s likely in the medium term. As Big Tech companies eventually scale back their AI capital expenditures, Nvidia could experience a typical cyclical downturn. While future spending cycles for AI infrastructure are expected, the current upward cycle is unlikely to continue without significant fluctuations in demand – especially if the initial AI downturn coincides with a broader economic recession.

I believe Nvidia stock still has room for gains in the coming years, although I find its risk profile concerning. Market volatility could impact share price heading into 2026, with 2027 and especially 2028 likely to be more challenging. For now, however, my rating is a Hold, with a conservative October 2025 price target of $155 and a bull case target of $175.

How Do Wall Street Analysts Rate Nvidia Stock?

Wall Street remains very bullish on Nvidia, with an average NVDA price target of $153.86, indicating an upside of 13.6%. The consensus rating is a Strong Buy, based on 39 Buy ratings, three Hold ratings, and no Sell ratings. This supports the case for holding on to Nvidia until a potential medium-term downturn becomes clearer.

View more NVDA analyst ratings

Microsoft is positioned for long-term stability

I’m especially bullish on Microsoft and view it as a long-term buy-and-hold investment, rather than just a short- to medium-term strategy like Nvidia. As the AI ​​leader in Big Tech, Microsoft is well positioned for sustainable growth without the heavy cyclicality that AI semiconductor companies like Nvidia face. Instead of relying on Big Tech’s capital expenditures, Microsoft benefits from recurring revenue through its AI-powered cloud subscription services.

Microsoft’s management under Satya Nadella was exceptional. Since becoming CEO in 2014, the company’s market capitalization has risen from $381 billion to over $3 trillion by 2024. Nadella’s pivotal shift to cloud computing is now paying significant dividends, boosted by Microsoft’s substantial stake in OpenAI, its creator from ChatGPT.

I see Microsoft as a stable long-term investment. The strong 10-year annual free cash flow growth rate of 14% and margin of 28.6% support a bullish outlook. While its price-to-free cash flow ratio of 42 is above the 10-year average of 28.5 due to heavy AI investments, these should improve earnings over time. Right now my rating is Buy, with a bullish October 2025 price target of $490.

How do Wall Street analysts rate Microsoft stock?

Wall Street is also bullish on Microsoft, with an average MSFT price target of $503, suggesting an upside of 22.6%. This is based on 27 buy ratings, three hold ratings, and no sell ratings. This reaffirms Microsoft’s strength as an investment right now, according to the consensus of the banking community.

View more MSFT analyst ratings

Google is potentially vulnerable, but offers great value

I’m especially bullish on Google when it comes to the three AI investments we examined today. While I have long-term concerns about the competitive threat of OpenAI’s ChatGPT potentially taking market share away from Google Search, the investment remains very attractive due to its pronounced Big Tech valuation.

With a price/earnings ratio of 22.7 – significantly below the ten-year average of 28.7 – the stock seems attractively priced. Additionally, the company’s three-year non-GAAP earnings per share have grown 32.3% annually, compared to a ten-year average of 27.6%. This combination of accelerating growth and declining valuation currently offers attractive opportunities for investors.

While Google will likely deliver higher earnings growth than Microsoft over the next three to five years, Microsoft will undoubtedly take the lead in generating free cash flow. Compared to Nvidia, Google may grow more slowly in the short term; Over the long term, however, I view Google as the most stable Big Tech investment. As a long-term investor focused on safe and reliable passive returns, I prefer Google for my portfolio. My October 2025 price target for the stock is $190.

How Do Wall Street Analysts Rate Google Stock?

On Wall Street, Google is rated as a Strong Buy, based on a consensus of 26 Buy ratings, six Hold ratings, and zero Sell ratings. With an average GOOGL price target of $207.40, the stock offers a potential return of 21.1% over the next year. This positive outlook further strengthens my independent investment thesis on Google and cements it as a worthwhile portfolio holding at this time.

See more GOOGL analyst reviews

Takeaway: Nvidia for growth, Microsoft for balance, Google for value

For investors focused on short-term growth momentum, Nvidia could be an attractive option. However, as a long-term value investor, I lean more toward Microsoft and Google. While it may be tempting to capitalize on Nvidia’s growth from semiconductor sales driven by its AI infrastructure buildout, I prefer the slower, steadier growth provided by the recurring revenue opportunities in AI-led from Microsoft and, even more so, the underrated Google.

Revelation