You may not know it from looking at the sticker prices in the grocery aisles, but Thanksgiving dinner is more affordable than it has been in years.

The cost of this year’s banquet — estimated at $58.08 for a gathering of 10 people, or $5.81 per person — has fallen 5% since last year, the lowest level since 2021, according to a national survey of food prices by the American Farm Bureau Federation. , which represents millions of American farmers. But the picture improves even further when adjusted for inflation.

“If your dollar had the same total purchasing power as a consumer’s in 1984 … this would be the least expensive Thanksgiving meal in the 39-year history of the AFBF Thanksgiving survey, excluding the 2020 outlier,” the authors wrote.

For many households it does not feel that way.

A defining feature of the post-pandemic recovery and the 2024 election is the difference between Americans’ sour view of the economy and its underlying strength. Understandably, many consumers focus on the price point – the dollar value of the things they buy – rather than the inflation-adjusted or “real” cost of those purchases. The latter is the real test of affordability, because it reflects an often underappreciated piece of the inflation puzzle: wage inflation.

And while Thanksgiving food prices have risen 19% since 2019, federal data shows that average household wages have risen about 25% over the same period, according to the AFBF.

In addition, the average American also has to work fewer hours to buy the same meal than in previous years, the report said. “Wages continued to grow faster after the COVID-19 pandemic, even as inflation cooled. With average wages increasing 4% from 2023 to 2024, it took us 9% less work time to pay for this year’s Thanksgiving dinner.”

Of course, wage increases haven’t boosted all workers equally, and long-term expenses like housing costs and childcare continue to push families up and down the income spectrum. Although consumer confidence has risen in recent weeks, it remains below pre-pandemic levels.

Still, the AFBF report says, “even with the declining purchasing power of the dollar, some goods in our basket are at their lowest long-term prices, even in terms of the ‘current dollar’ price.”

For example, Turkey is 6% cheaper than last year, despite the fact that bird flu has taken away some of the turkey supplies. Tighter availability typically drives up prices, but Americans eat about 1 pound less turkey per person each year, reducing demand more than enough to offset affected supply.

Certain processed foods that end up on Thanksgiving tables are more expensive. Rolls and filling in cubes are each sold for 8% more than a year ago. On the other hand, sweet potatoes and whole milk have seen the largest annual price declines, down 26% and 14% respectively. While fresh cranberry prices have risen 12%, down from 18% the year before, they remain at their lowest level since 2015. Adjusted for inflation, they are at the same level as in 1987, the report said.

These affordability gains are good news for inflation-weary shoppers, many of whom are increasingly focused on value this year. Major consumer brands have been chasing bargain-hungry customers for months with price cuts and promotions. Some, like Walmart and TJ Maxx, are seeing more success than others, like Target.

The wave of discounts has become more competitive in the run-up to the holidays, and supermarkets are no exception. Food eaten at home was only 1.1% more expensive last month than at the same time last year, compared to the average 2.6% increase in consumer prices overall.

Both Target and Aldi have launched Thanksgiving deals that are priced lower than last year. Target is offering a $20 Thanksgiving meal for four people, including a small turkey, canned vegetables and some stovetop stuffing. Aldi has a $47 meal kit for 10 people, which is advertised as lower than 2019 prices. Walmart is promoting a 29-item “inflation-free Thanksgiving” meal that can serve eight people for $56. Amazon Fresh is offering Thanksgiving discounts on turkey, sides and desserts, feeding six people for less than $5 each, plus additional savings for Prime members.

The flow of promotions offers plenty of opportunities to compare, experts say.

“I would encourage consumers to take a look at what those meals consist of,” said Robin Wenzel, head of Wells Fargo’s Agri-Food Institute. “Don’t be afraid to visit multiple retailers.”

Some Thanksgiving meal kits offer more ingredients, but that may mean preparing more dishes from scratch. Others have fewer items but require less prep work. “Thanksgiving is so personal in many families,” says Wenzel, and the range of offers allows consumers to tailor their shopping around their gatherings.

One cost-saving strategy is buying in-store “private label” brands, which can save shoppers $17 on a $10 Thanksgiving menu, according to Wells Fargo’s Agri-Food Institute. Consumer Reports experts also recommend signing up for grocery store loyalty and cashback programs for additional savings, which often come with conveniences like virtual coupons in the stores’ apps.

Ultimately, how much people pay for Thanksgiving dinner will also depend on geography. Households in the West, the most expensive region for holiday shopping, will spend an average of about 18% more than households in the South, where they are cheapest, the AFBF estimates.