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    • Weather forecast election day 2024: Will it rain?
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    Weather forecast election day 2024: Will it rain?

    Vaseline Posted on

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    Election Day is just around the corner, and so are storms and rainstorms that could make getting to the polls a little more difficult in some parts of the country.

    Forecasters say most of the country will have mild weather on Tuesday, November 5, but some places will see thunderstorms, persistent rain or even snow. That includes a rainy forecast in the key swing states of Wisconsin and Michigan.

    While severe weather could impact election turnout, forecasters say Tuesday’s outlook is not severe enough to cause major problems. And in an election year with a close contest, most voters won’t be deterred, said Paul Pastelok, senior meteorologist at AccuWeather.

    “People should be able to go there without major weather disruptions,” Pastelok told USA TODAY.

    Rain in some swing states

    Wisconsin and Michigan are expecting rain on voting day. They are two of the seven swing states with close polls between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.

    Pastelok said rain in Wisconsin is expected mainly in the morning and will dry out later in the day, but Michigan could see rain at any time during the day.

    Additionally, voters in northern Iowa and southeastern Minnesota will have a better chance of staying dry if they head to the polls later in the day after the early rain has subsided.

    Thunderstorms in central parts of the country

    Showers and thunderstorms are forecast for Tuesday from southeastern Texas, including Houston, which extends through the lower Mississippi Valley, including parts of Arkansas and Mississippi, Pastelok said.

    According to AccuWeather, sudden heavy rainstorms, localized flash flooding and lightning strikes pose a risk to voters lined up at busy polling places.

    AccuWeather said severe thunderstorms are a risk this weekend and may extend into Election Day in the corridor from eastern Texas and Louisiana through southern Illinois and Indiana to western Ohio and southern Michigan.

    Cold weather, strong winds and possible snow in the northwest

    In the northwest and northern Rocky Mountains, temperatures may become cold enough that even mid-elevation snow may fall in parts of Oregon, Washington, Idaho, northeastern Nevada, northern Utah and western Wyoming.

    In those states, windy conditions may also call for hats and gloves while waiting to vote, Pastelok said.

    Overall, a mild election day in the US

    The rest of the country is expected to be clear and dry on Tuesday, Pastelok said.

    It will be relatively warm on the East Coast in areas including Washington, DC, Raleigh and New York. Temperatures should be in the low to mid 70s in the Mid-Atlantic region and in the 80s in the Southeast.

    And the western central plains in the Southwest are expected to be dry without freezing, he said.

    Does the weather affect the elections?

    Researchers say bad weather has a marginal impact on election turnout, which could be much more important in a very close race. That’s because people who doubt whether they will vote at all are less likely to go out in bad weather.

    Every inch of precipitation can reduce turnout in same-day elections by as much as 0.95 points, researchers found in a 2023 analysis of turnout and rainfall studies. But the negative effects of rain can be somewhat mitigated by alternative voting methods such as ballots and early voting, another study from this year found.

    “The impact of weather on voting is not as large or impactful as it once was because so many people are now voting early in person or by mail,” said Evan Myers, senior vice president at AccuWeather and an expert on election weather . The majority of people still vote on Election Day, but there are many more people who vote early.”

    Early voting update: Women are outpacing men in early voting, boosting the Harris campaign’s optimism

    Since it is a presidential election year, Pastelok said low-intensity rain will not hinder voter turnout too much. In years when there are no presidential elections, people may be more tempted to stay home.

    Although the weather in recently disaster-hit areas like western North Carolina looks clear on Election Day, some usual polling places were wiped out by Hurricane Helene, and in other cases voting records may have been destroyed, Myers said.

    In the wake of two hurricanes, Helene and Milton, federal judges in Florida and Georgia also rejected requests from civil rights groups to extend voter registration deadlines. The groups said people forced to evacuate or displaced by the hurricanes had difficulty registering in time.

    “The effects of the extreme weather weeks ago will likely have a greater impact on voting compared to the actual weather on Election Day,” Myers said.

    Vaseline
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