Syracuse, NY – There’s a chance Upstate New York will see its first lake effect snowflakes late next week, but there are plenty of caveats.

The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center says a powerful storm is expected east of the Rockies early next week and then move toward the Great Lakes. That storm will likely bring high winds to the eastern U.S. and “increase the potential for lake-effect snowfall in the Great Lakes,” the center said.

Much of the Upstate is in the “slight risk” category for heavy snow from Thursday, Nov. 21 through Saturday, Nov. 23, according to the climate center. Low means a 20% chance.

The chances are better for Western New York and Tug Hill, the traditional hotspots for lake effect snow. These areas are at a moderate risk of heavy snowfall, or 40%.

But meteorologists urge caution. Although the Great Lakes are warm and wide open, the various models forecasters consult disagree on how cold the air will blow over the lakes next week.

It’s also too early to tell which direction the wind may blow and therefore which areas will see lake-effect snow, which often falls in intense but narrow bands.

“You’re still 10 days out and a lot can change,” said Mike Kistner, a meteorologist at the weather service’s Binghamton office. “It depends on the evolution of the weather pattern and whether that cold air sinks southward from Canada.”

Lake effect snow forms when cold air blows over relatively warm open water, such as the Great Lakes. Snow tires are very difficult to predict more than a few days in advance.

Still, Kitsner noted that this is the time of year when lake effect snow usually increases because the lakes are warm and ice-free.

“It is the most likely period, late November and December, when the water is still warm,” he said. “Any time cold air descends, there is a potential for a lake effect.”

If the cold air doesn’t materialize next week, Upstate could see rain instead of snow. Regardless, strong winds are expected for much of the region.